Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[Frosty.]

Hello, is anyone there? I suggest you have a good look at the models before posting. None of the the majors are lurching anywhere. gfs op remains many mild. ECM op remains many cool. That would seem to promise generally average if you weight each model the same.

Agreed, what a totally misleading post by the pit, someone with over 13,000 posts should know better! The models are trending colder so I would say the chances of cold incursions are increasing for the next few weeks, even a much cooler snap this week after tomorrows gales and heavy rain in the north.

[Gavin P]

Is this the blocking us coldies have been searching for?

It could be the start of it. As already stated, the block isn't really there yet, but the PV is splitting, so you would hope a proper blocking high would fill the space.

[Zakos]

GFS 00z a clear outlier in FI. Zero support for the op right at the end of the output. Many ensembles go for below -5 t850's at the end. Even the mean is very close to -5 in the south. I suspect the 06z op will also be an outlier in FI.

[bluearmy]

I believe the gefs are not at a higher resolution post t192 than the op.

I think the gfs 06z solution of a block close to uk is in line with a fair cluster of ECM ensembles. Whilst we would do well to discount to a fair extent the amount of mobility in gfs fi, that could leaves us close to a mid lat high just to our west which ties in with the thoughts from yesterday.

[nick sussex]

we really are stuck in the most awful rut nick.

Every time you think potential along comes another jet streak out of the states and flattens the whole thing out.

I really can't for the life of me see a way out of tis pattern before mid Jan at the earliest personally.

I think it depends on what the expectations are.

If people are expecting ice days and lots of snow then of course that doesn't seem very likely at the moment but you need to start somewhere, if we get the troughing over the UK with a more favourable jet angle that could eventually lead to more interest.

We do need to see that Russian high lock in low heights over Europe, this will stop the limpet high from trying to edge east and then you look upstream, if you get an amplified eastern US trough this can work in tandem with the Russian high and retrogressing ridge to sink the trough, thats stage 2, we haven't even got to stage 1 yet.

[IDO]

We have the mix of warm air and cold air in the Jetstream and despite the promise of any other changes in the synoptics, this is the strongest variable. With its West to East track and its position to our North the best we will get is temporary cold (viz-a-viz GFS).

Lets not right off January for a few days; as ECM starts to enter the FI of the recent GFS output, we need to see if they continue with the shoots of change or will they keep pushing the better signs to the end of their run. It does not look like stratospheric warming will be any use in the next ten days (at least) and the SSW is no longer a variable, so if ECM is wrong with the PV, then late January will be our next shot at cold.

"Things are only as good or as bad as you make them seem"

[dixonoid]

It could be the start of it. As already stated, the block isn't really there yet, but the PV is splitting, so you would hope a proper blocking high would fill the space.

I think I should of written, is this the start of the blocking we have been searching for. And also looking at the northern hemisphere maps, there is a high in the arctic (AO I presume) which could possibly join the one as pictured, and with signs of warming in the strat, would tell me that the model, but not all the models are heading in the right direction, but still in Fi . Most of the information I have is information from this thread and the strat thread, also the latest gfs run in Fi is echoing GPs thoughts from his winter forecast I think, but the high needs to be further north, but still all in Fi. Good signs though Please correct me, because I am probably wrong!

[nick sussex]

I think I should of written, is this the start of the blocking we have been searching for. And also looking at the northern hemisphere maps, there is a high in the arctic (AO I presume) which could possibly join the one as pictured, and with signs of warming in the strat, would tell me that the model, but not all the models are heading in the right direction, but still in Fi . Most of the information I have is information from this thread and the strat thread, also the latest gfs run in Fi is echoing GPs thoughts from his winter forecast I think, but the high needs to be further north, but still all in Fi. Good signs though Please correct me, because I am probably wrong!

Unfortunately that highs going nowhere but south because the jet is running over the top.

The salvation high is the one over Russia in the higher resolution output, whether that does eventually ride in town to save us all only time will tell.

Edited December 27, 2011 by nick sussex

[snowingman]

the 06z from the gfs shows that the Bartlett high continues to re invigorate itself in cycles. In essence this is driving very mild air up from the tropical atlantic - slamming right into the UK, and incursions from the north or brief and simply dilute the mild air to around normal for short periods - before the bartlett reforms once more.

Unfortunately (although many many on this board would like you to think otherwise) this pattern is a rigid one and is unlikely to shift for many many weeks - we are now into week 5 of this pattern - with i believe a similar period still to come. There is nothing on any models at present in in FI suggesting a change to this, so I really wish some posters would stop speculating on otherwise.

I will continue to post my thoughts based on accurate and reliable model watching over many years

[Bobby]

The ECM ensemble mean shows the PV weakening and fragmenting somewhat which is one of the first building blocks we need in place

24hrs

240hrs

Also a more NW-SE tilted jet, GFS ensemble mean shows that too.

So some positive signs though a long way to go

I'd say at this stage northerlies are our best bet rather than easterlies

[bluearmy]

snowingman - you might be right but your post just isn't. We have seen cool zonality for the first half of December, we now have mild zonality and the models are showing a whole gamut of options for the first half of January. I think the premis that the earth is turning from west to east will continue to support your overall assessment.

[Duane S.]

we really are stuck in the most awful rut nick.

Every time you think potential along comes another jet streak out of the states and flattens the whole thing out.

I really can't for the life of me see a way out of tis pattern before mid Jan at the earliest personally.

I don't think it's as bad as all that, windows of opportunity will be there. The jet coming out of the States in about a week's time could be pivotal for any early opportunites though. How meridional will the flow become is going to be paramount I think.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM showing NW'ly dominating early Jan with pressure rising to far NE, Complex LP moves SE which would seemingly go on to advect very cold HP wSW towards UK and western Europe. GFS maintains HP to the south in FI and wants none of it. For me, look for the increasing NW;ly influence and look for the complex LP situation and southerly tracking LP 7-10 Jan /or LP that moves on a steep NW/SE axis basically acting as a trigger LP.

GFS not playing ball is not a concern of mine none are really covering themselves in glory yet, but it will be interesting to see how they go from here onwards. Bye bye Bartlett theory IMO.

There is no rut IMO either, we're in an anticipated set up currently, if we are in this come 10th Jan then we arte in a rut....seems to be bubbling away interestingly to me.

Happy New Year, see you all in Jan.....time to do some travelling to see the family

BFTP

Edited December 27, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

the 06z from the gfs shows that the Bartlett high continues to re invigorate itself in cycles. In essence this is driving very mild air up from the tropical atlantic - slamming right into the UK, and incursions from the north or brief and simply dilute the mild air to around normal for short periods - before the bartlett reforms once more.

Unfortunately (although many many on this board would like you to think otherwise) this pattern is a rigid one and is unlikely to shift for many many weeks - we are now into week 5 of this pattern - with i believe a similar period still to come. There is nothing on any models at present in in FI suggesting a change to this, so I really wish some posters would stop speculating on otherwise.

I will continue to post my thoughts based on accurate and reliable model watching over many years

Lol! FI does suggest a change so your last sentence is I'm afraid misleading, however theres disagreement regarding FI which is why its best to just stick to within 168hrs.

A nw/se tilted jet is a change from the current pattern so if that verifies high pressure to the south will displace further west, and your Bartlett won't verify!

[Duane S.]

the 06z from the gfs shows that the Bartlett high continues to re invigorate itself in cycles. In essence this is driving very mild air up from the tropical atlantic - slamming right into the UK, and incursions from the north or brief and simply dilute the mild air to around normal for short periods - before the bartlett reforms once more.

Unfortunately (although many many on this board would like you to think otherwise) this pattern is a rigid one and is unlikely to shift for many many weeks - we are now into week 5 of this pattern - with i believe a similar period still to come. There is nothing on any models at present in in FI suggesting a change to this, so I really wish some posters would stop speculating on otherwise.

I will continue to post my thoughts based on accurate and reliable model watching over many years

I'm afraid it's not as accurate is you would have yourself believe then. Who knows, we may be heading for weeks of zonality (personally I don't see it) but we have NOT had to endure 5 weeks of it already. Far from it. For fair periods of December we were treated to a PM airflow and cold Zonality in a scenario that, yes, you may have expected a Bartlett setup and flat jet / zonal express train!

Be negative and dismissive about prospects if you wish but don't skew the facts.

[nick sussex]

I'm afraid it's not as accurate is you would have yourself believe then. Who knows, we may be heading for weeks of zonality (personally I don't see it) but we have NOT had to endure 5 weeks of it already. Far from it. For fair periods of December we were treated to a PM airflow and cold Zonality in a scenario that, yes, you may have expected a Bartlett setup and flat jet / zonal express train!

Be negative and dismissive about prospects if you wish but don't skew the facts.

I couldn't agree more!

The problem is that some people obsess over every GFS operational run and forget that the whole world of modelling does not revolve around this model.

Given that NOAA aren't using any of the GFS output today in their preliminary discussions says it all, I like the GFS for its entertainment value and this thread would certainly be more boring without it but its not the best model in the world.

[SP1986]

The hard facts are; The GFS is showing a mobile setup as it consistently has, however once again it remains at the higher end of it's ensembles. However the ensembles show no trend, they show no agreement, so they cannot be relied on to head a forthcoming trend. The ECM shows also a mobile situation, a little more favoured in terms of cool weather than the GFS, however even so, the ECM output would fail to deliver many frosts.

In general the models show a typical winter pattern for the UK, where it is mobile, not particularly cold, and not particularly mild - that is the say the runs look distinctly average.

To my mind, there is nothing that shows exceptionally mild, nor anything cold, secondly, the charts do not show a Bartlett situation, this needs to be clarified, the charts actually show a slightly displaced Azores High with a jet running over the top. A Bartlett high is a totally different situation.

[Backtrack]

the 06z from the gfs shows that the Bartlett high continues to re invigorate itself in cycles. In essence this is driving very mild air up from the tropical atlantic - slamming right into the UK, and incursions from the north or brief and simply dilute the mild air to around normal for short periods - before the bartlett reforms once more.

Unfortunately (although many many on this board would like you to think otherwise) this pattern is a rigid one and is unlikely to shift for many many weeks - we are now into week 5 of this pattern - with i believe a similar period still to come. There is nothing on any models at present in in FI suggesting a change to this, so I really wish some posters would stop speculating on otherwise.

I will continue to post my thoughts based on accurate and reliable model watching over many years

I don't see any evidence that a Barlett has been driving our weather, or even influencing it until just a few days ago, when we have been picking up much milder air from the subtropical ridge, but this is not a Barlett high, and there is no Barlett high being shown on the models.

The first third of December was dominated by Polar Westerlies and North Westerlies, so where have you got the idea that a Barlett High has been influencing our weather for the last five weeks?

[nick sussex]

In the nearer term this low running ne past Scotland could bring some very strong winds:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912201800&VAR=uv10&HH=33&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

The main risk areas are for western and nw Scotland and the far north of N/Ireland.

[J10]

A big standoff is starting to occur with the models between ECM and GFS, ECM is very much trending in the right direction with the GFS (or at least the op run) having nothing of it.

I would suspect that the jet tilting more to a NW SE one is more likely around next week, as to whether this is a start of a major pattern change is another matter.

[Backtrack]

In the nearer term this low running ne past Scotland could bring some very strong winds:

http://www.weatheron...V=0&WMO==

The main risk areas are for western and nw Scotland and the far north of N/Ireland.

Yep, this low also drags much colder air in from the NW as it crosses Eastwards.

Could be some quite significant snow for the Scottish Highlands and Northern hills.

[If Wishes made Weather]

The hard facts are; The GFS is showing a mobile setup as it consistently has, however once again it remains at the higher end of it's ensembles. However the ensembles show no trend, they show no agreement, so they cannot be relied on to head a forthcoming trend. The ECM shows also a mobile situation, a little more favoured in terms of cool weather than the GFS, however even so, the ECM output would fail to deliver many frosts.

In general the models show a typical winter pattern for the UK, where it is mobile, not particularly cold, and not particularly mild - that is the say the runs look distinctly average.

To my mind, there is nothing that shows exceptionally mild, nor anything cold, secondly, the charts do not show a Bartlett situation, this needs to be clarified, the charts actually show a slightly displaced Azores High with a jet running over the top. A Bartlett high is a totally different situation.

Completely agreed. The models, for several weeks have been showing, and we have been receiving, fairly standard UK fair. Some milder, and some coller zonality. Perhaps suprisingly cool at times, but by definition, something approaching average cannot be suprising. The stratos thread does show some optimism for change to cooler, and possibly eventually cold weather, the time has not yet arrived and at best we can state that there are some uncertain trends showing at the very outer edges of modeling. Whereas I would enjoy nothing more than -15c uppers and lowers putting 30+cm snow down across the country in 6 hours with a 40 mph wind, we must accept that we don't live in New Hampshire.

[Robbie Garrett]

Hope everyone had a good Christmas.

Models gave a tease in FI on the big day, so at least there is sign of some pattern change.

Mid Jan-Late March we can Still get an arctic blast, its not over till the fat lady sings, and what is this Bartlett nosence. All I see is High pressure displaced from the azores.

Nick I watched a Documentary on Snowstorm Britain regarding the January 09 snowfall, which is what I guess you was talking about? Look to our E/NE. Can such a pattern we have at the moment provide that?

[kev238]

As far as I can see from the models, there is no definite trend in any clear direction. To me, this suggests a continuation of average to mild conditions for the foreseeable.

I would be very surprised to see any snowfall in my location, Nottingham, within the next three weeks which leads to Mid January.

We are in a mild pattern at the moment. Autumn was the 2nd mildest on record, December is running around a degree above average with a mild end as well.

The form horse from the models is for the first half of January to be running above average by half to one degree.

[Bobby]

I couldn't agree more!

The problem is that some people obsess over every GFS operational run and forget that the whole world of modelling does not revolve around this model.

Given that NOAA aren't using any of the GFS output today in their preliminary discussions says it all, I like the GFS for its entertainment value and this thread would certainly be more boring without it but its not the best model in the world.

True, the GFS is the 3rd or 4th more accurate model at the moment and the ECM and UKMO and consistently better. The GEM is almost as accurate and you don't get people obsessing over every detail of each of it's runs. ECM is king in my experience.

Current verifcation stats

Ensemble P4 is a stunner, beast from the east

Imagine if that showed up on the OP, total meltdown in here lol