When Should We Get Worried About Winter?

[Snowy Easterly]

Late February, though I guess it depends where you live in the UK.. for proper snowfalls, I won't give up hope until mid March, and snow in April is not too uncommon, but I guess if you live in Plymouth or Southampton, you might as well give up by mid February!

It snowed in Barcelona in March a few years ago, but i get your point that sustained snowfall is hard to get by end of feb, esp that far south.

[Guest]

It snowed in Barcelona in March a few years ago, but i get your point that sustained snowfall is hard to get by end of feb, esp that far south.

Yes it started on 07.03.2010 - covered quite a bit of southern France and Northern Spain.

[syed2878]

i c some of us mensioning 1947-1963 if i remembor ritely reading some of the posts wasn't dec 46-62 cold to start with?

[leicsnow]

A lot of members are posting on other threads when they will write off winter, many are saying mid February. I think this is a key date for many as at that time you are approaching the end of February, and in turn then end of meteorological winter, and it's the last chance for sustained snow and cold. For example, it may be just as likely to see cold and snow in late January as it is in late February, but people don't write off if nothing is snowing for LJ because you still have Feb, but in LF you just have March (and maybe April, for some more than others) to give a few convective falls.

Edited January 17, 2012 by Tellow

[Aaron]

I guess I could write off winter on the 1st of March.

But I won't write off snowy weather until mid April, perhaps even later.

[Derp Patrol]

Move house if it's that bad. We've had a good number of days with full snow cover in the morning up here this December, possibly as many as eight or nine. We had a full five days in a row a few weeks back, winter has been here quite often and it has been slippy as anything I live at a full 100m above sea level, so it's hardly unrepresentitive of local conditions.

The only problem with moving to Scotland is that Spring, Summer and early Autumn would take a massive hit I much prefer warmer weather, so If I had to choose between the two it would be an easy choice. Being from London I am used to average July temps in the 23-24C range... I find that just about OK, so I don't think i'd be able to handle living somewhere where average summer temperatures are below 20C and 30C is rare!

[MP-R]

I think it's important to point out location as people in different locations will have different viewpoints. Coming from the southwest, I don't expect snow until after Christmas - anything before is a bonus and all before and none after is just plain wrong. Cold wise, I would expect a cold spell before Christmas, even if it's via inversion cold such as the last few days.

By January 10th I would expect to have had a snowfall. If there hasn't been one then I would hope the models are showing possibilities in the not too distant future. If, however, we have got to this point in the month with no snowfall in the bank and none showing, then I would start to get worried. I think the peak time for lasting snowfall is probably between January 20th and February 10th as after that things would have to be pretty exceptional to give lasting snowfall.

By March, interest in snowfall is waning as it's not a winter month and anything that does fall is unlikely to stick around for more than a day, 2 days max.

Somebody made a comment about the ends of February 2004 and 2005. 2005 was pretty useless away from higher ground coming from a rather warm east. 2004 however featured a northerly and favoured many more, the depth of the cold also being greater. For this reason, I think our best chances of snow this winter will be from the north.

So, I'm starting to get worried now but I'm certainly not writing winter off until mid February.

[jean91]

It snowed in Barcelona in March a few years ago, but i get your point that sustained snowfall is hard to get by end of feb, esp that far south.

yes recorded the coldest minimums , for March, on the morning of 1st march 2005 for many suburbs ( monthly minimum records) around Paris.I had a -9.3c which was really amazing so late.I will remember this month as barely 15 days after we had 22c in daytine and near record too!!!

I would say for a small cold wave would be by mid february if the models don't show anything good.Same for snow , although it certainly may not last very long on the ground.But then with the weather expect the unexpected!!!

Edited January 17, 2012 by jean91

[sundog]

I would get worried if by late jan there hasnt been much cold or snow-like this winter so far- and the models continued to show not much in the way of cold by that stage. After about mid Feb i do think that cold spells lose that extra bit of bite,not that i would complain about getting a cold spell during the second half of feb especially considering the muck we have had so far this particular winter.

[Dorsetbred]

I wouldn't get worried until early December this year TBH.

Let's get this "season" out the way, let's face I've seem so much "the models at xxxh say..." I wouldn't even worry about this winter.

Get it over let's move on, not a moan more of how it really is happening.

[Froze were the Days]

If nothing in the way of blocking is occuring on the models I'd say earlyish February, by the looks of the output so far this winter and with the lack of heights to the north of the UK I'm concerned already, even potent brief arctic blasts have almost been non existent too this winter.

[leicsnow]

I'm starting to come to the conclusion that this winter has run it's course now, as the current cold spell comes to a close, and the models don't look great for cold and snow. Therefore, you could say I'm "writing off winter" now. And I'm not that bothered about it really, I am dealing with it better than I thought I would, since it's my first winter as a weather fanatic on the forum (lol). However, many other posters with this attitude will say "bring on spring" referring to warmth, but as I have realised from CSS's wise words wintry weather is a part of spring as is summery weather, and while the sound of the word "March" puts an end to the thought of snow when I think back to years where March and even April has delivered I quickly think differently!

Edited February 10, 2012 by Tellow

[damianslaw]

There is an old saying winters back breaks in the middle of February. Whilst the chances of days on end of sub-zero means becomes less likely from late Feb onwards, severe wintry conditions can and often do occur well into March especially in Scotland and North of England. So whilst the prospects for deep intense cold begin to dissapear as we enter late Feb, I never rule out a potent wintry blast until late March, and April can throw a surprise or two but by then the chances become less realistic. Its like late aug through to late sept when a late summer heatwave can't never be truly ruled out.

In a sense I am quite relieved in a way when we get to late feb as my expectations for deep cold rapidly diminish therefore any cold wintry weather from late feb onwards is always a bonus, whereas from late nov through to mid feb my expectations for deep cold and wintry conditions are much higher. We are nearing that point in the winter when my expectations for deep cold and snow begin to diminish but not for a couple more weeks yet i.e. around the 24th normally the cut off date until then I remain firmly in winter mode.

Edited February 10, 2012 by damianslaw

[leicsnow]

There is an old saying winters back breaks in the middle of February. Whilst the chances of days on end of sub-zero means becomes less likely from late Feb onwards, severe wintry conditions can and often do occur well into March especially in Scotland and North of England. So whilst the prospects for deep intense cold begin to dissapear as we enter late Feb, I never rule out a potent wintry blast until late March, and April can throw a surprise or two but by then the chances become less realistic. Its like late aug through to late sept when a late summer heatwave can't never be truly ruled out.

In a sense I am quite relieved in a way when we get to late feb as my expectations for deep cold rapidly diminish therefore any cold wintry weather from late feb onwards is always a bonus, whereas from late nov through to mid feb my expectations for deep cold and wintry conditions are much higher. We are nearing that point in the winter when my expectations for deep cold and snow begin to diminish but not for a couple more weeks yet i.e. around the 24th normally the cut off date until then I remain firmly in winter mode.

But even after around the 24th, some wintry blasts like late Feb/early March 2005 are always nice to experience, wouldn't you say? Even if they aren't deep cold.

Edited February 11, 2012 by Tellow

[Aaron]

People tend to dislike snow in March because it does not last long.

But this is the UK, snow doesn't last long anyway, in an average winter at least.

It's been a while (2008) since I had a decent March snowfall.. they have been pretty snowless since then, highly unusual.

Edited February 11, 2012 by Aaron

[CWT2012]

If nothing comes of this northerly blast the GFS is showing in FI then it is game over IMHO

You can get snow in March and April but the sun is too strong to make it last and give a sustained arctic blast

If you want 4" overnight and melted by 2pm then winter has 2 months left, if you want a severe blast (nov/dec 2010) there is 1 shot left

[greybing]

Never.It is not worth worring over.I am fully engaged with the weather ,I am interested in it but I find it is best not to worry over it .