When Should We Get Worried About Winter?

[leicsnow]

Recently in a lot of threads, there have been people (myself included sometimes!) complaining about the lack of cold and snow and effectively 'writing off winter' saying they don't see any pattern change for cold synoptics for the rest of winter. Then others come back at them with something like "It's only the (insert date here)! Don't get worried until (insert date here)!" I was just wondering, when do you think is the right time to get worried if you are not seeing the weather you desire?

Edited December 29, 2011 by Tellow

[Evening thunder]

The 1st of March?

I suppose, if it's late February and the models don't show anything cold you can assume you won't get any more cold this meteorological winter. But if there is no sign of cold or a pattern change or whatever etc I suppose you could get worried from a cold/snow perspective earlier in the winter, but you couldn't be 100% sure we wouldn't see any more.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Isolated Frost]

April 15th for me... possibility for any copious amounts of snowfalls, or deep frosts at low-lying areas in England and Wales fade to 1-5%... however up to May 15th can deliver snow at sea level around the UK. If I was in Buxton, I'd call it a day on May 15th, Braemar June 1st... even Lerwick can receive heavy snowfalls and frosts in mid-may.

[Polar Maritime]

I would say for deep cold/snow 2nd week in Febuary.

But remember we can still get heavy snowfalls and frosts in March, as we did last November which isn't even a winter month.

I would'nt be worrying yet, we are only 1/3 into Winter proper.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I would say mid March for any sustained snowfall. I can remember the easter day snowfall from 2007 when we had around 3 to 4 inch of snow on the ground which pretty much all melted by lunchtime. Temperature wise we can have frosty mornings up to early April, but for me winter is about snowfall that lasts for more than a day.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[snow drift]

Most years living down here you can write off winter before it starts!!!!!!!!!! For the uk I would wait until late feb.

[Guest]

I would say late Feb - up until this time it is possible to get a dry powder snow and ice days - although it oftens snows after this date, it is more what I term as 'daffy snow' - it doesn't usually stay long and does not always settle and when it does it is normally slushy in my part of the world.

[cheeky_monkey]

from my own experience of UK weather i would start to worry now if norhing is showing up into mid January...patterns get locked in and are difficult to shift both in summer and winter..be they cold or mild..and rememba mild is the default setting for this part of the world..so odds of a cold snowy february im saying 15-1.

[stewfox]

I would say for deep cold/snow 2nd week in Febuary.

But remember we can still get heavy snowfalls and frosts in March, as we did last November which isn't even a winter month.

I would'nt be worrying yet, we are only 1/3 into Winter proper.

I agree if we are talking about deep cold snow say for a week + by around mid feb (if nothing showing). Thats my vote

Have seen heavy prolonged snow early April in woking Surrey so wouldn't give up until mid April for just snow etc

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

from my own experience of UK weather i would start to worry now if norhing is showing up into mid January...patterns get locked in and are difficult to shift both in summer and winter..be they cold or mild..and rememba mild is the default setting for this part of the world..so odds of a cold snowy february im saying 15-1.

Yep to a degree I think your right, I've noticed this too over recent mild winters - a pattern of zonal Atlantic driven weather IS difficult to shift once set in, I can't remember too many recent winters after having continuous Atlantic stuff then to turn cold. Philip Eden went on record saying that the particularly warm SST's off the Eastern seaboard of the States aren't helping things if you wished for a cold winter in these parts and that coupled with the effects of La Nina.

If nothing is showing on the models by late January I'd start to think of 'writing off' the winter as regards to hard/severe conditions, don't forget also if this weather pattern doesn't change the near continent and probably parts of Scandanavia will be snow free which will not help lets say come February if we do get some form of Scandanavia blocking and Easterlies (as per 2005) so would have to rely on an Arctic blast. Not looking good so far this winter.

[Weather-history]

The answer is we really don't know. I wonder how many people wrote off winter 2004-2005 by early February? Also winters 1992-93 and 2003-04 by early February?

Look at winter 1882-83 and the March having a CET of 1.9C

Winter 1936-37 and the wintry March that followed.

This one I wrote an article on recently, winter 1872-73. That had a 4 week spell from just before Christmas to just past mid January having a CET of 7.8C but February just had a CET of 1.8C

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72057-winter-1872-73-the-long-wait/

Edited December 29, 2011 by Mr_Data

[A Winter's Tale]

Let's put it this way. You can never write off winter because weather patterns can change dramatically at short notice. It also depends what you want. The meteo..... winter is December, January and February and I think some people would just like winter to be within this period so that the final CET is cold. However, you can still get memorable winter weather right up to April.

In terms of writing winter off with models, then I would say that at the earliest mid to late January (if things aren't great). But even at early to mid February, things can change dramatically resulting in a great end to winter and start to Spring.

But really, no one should be worried about winter in Late December as the classic winters of 1947 and 1963 wouldn't have started by January and most classic cold spells tend to happen in January and February. There's still two months of the meterological winter left for things to change and current model runs only go up to mid January, with an entire second half of winter not even on models yet. Plenty of time left for change. However, as I see it, I think the period between Now and January 25th is crucial to whether we get a cold spell on the same level as the past 3 winters. If we see the breakthrough before the New Year, then a very cold winter could be on the cards, if it's the 25th of January, then I would think that a classic February could be on the cards but a cool-cold winter overall. And if you're just wanting decent winter weather regardless to whether it's Autumn, Winter or Spring, then I would think that even the period between Mid February and Mid March could still the chance of the models throwing up a very decent cold spell for Early Spring. And winter weather models watching runs right from Late October all the way to mid April.

[leicsnow]

AWT, if we had all the model technology and we were on this forum at this time in December 1946, what do you think would be showing up on the models with the severe cold in store for late January? What would we be thinking about the rest of the winter as a whole (although we'd have to consider the fact that it was rather cool even before the severe cold that winter)?

Edited December 29, 2011 by Tellow

[A Winter's Tale]

Have a look for yourself http://www.wetterzen...n/fsreaeur.html

GFS? ECM? MODELS!!!!!! IN 1946!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pigs Might Fly! Lol

What would they be showing?

WELL AM I AN EXPERT?

AM I SOME TELEPATHIC, TIME TRAVELLING, DIVINE, FORTUNE TELLER?

Of course I am.

Looking at the archives, it seems that it wasn't until later on January that things got notably colder and really in particular, February was the month of that winter. I think it was a case of a bolt from the blue.

Edited December 29, 2011 by A Winter's Tale

[Polar Maritime]

Recently in a lot of threads, there have been people (myself included sometimes!) complaining about the lack of cold and snow and effectively 'writing off winter' saying they don't see any pattern change for cold synoptics for the rest of winter. Then others come back at them with something like "It's only the (insert date here)! Don't get worried until (insert date here)!" I was just wondering, when do you think is the right time to get worried if you are not seeing the weather you desire?

Hi Tellow.

I think you need to change the title of this thread as this is confusing some people.

To "write off" winter i dont know.

My answer is the time i would start to get worried, as you state above.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Polar Maritime

[leicsnow]

Hi Tellow.

I think you need to change the title of this thread as this is confusing some people.

To "write off" winter i dont know.

My answer is the time i would start to get worried, as you state above.

I've changed the title.

[Kentish Man]

I would say if the models aren't showing anything properly cold within the next 10 days by close of play on February 28th then in South East England at least it's too late. After about March 10th nothing severely cold is likely from the east so you're relying on northerly airstreams to deliver. Unfortunately these don't produce long lasting or sufficient snow in SE areas by and large.

[Guest]

Move house if it's that bad. We've had a good number of days with full snow cover in the morning up here this December, possibly as many as eight or nine. We had a full five days in a row a few weeks back, winter has been here quite often and it has been slippy as anything I live at a full 100m above sea level, so it's hardly unrepresentitive of local conditions.

[A Winter's Tale]

Move house if it's that bad. We've had a good number of days with full snow cover in the morning up here this December, possibly as many as eight or nine. We had a full five days in a row a few weeks back, winter has been here quite often and it has been slippy as anything I live at a full 100m above sea level, so it's hardly unrepresentitive of local conditions.

Exactly! It's been a great month for snow in the Scottish Highlands aswell as much of the western half of the country. I've had more days of falling snow this month than in last December (12 so far), 10 days of lying snow with most of those having depths of around 2-7cm, plenty of frost, nice cold wintry conditions, winter sunshine, flooding and storms.

And if you were to look at Glasgow Airports Records, I think in the past 12 years, this December is up there with the 5 snowiest months so it's been pretty good up here and I and most Scots (except those in the South East) aren't writing off winter at all. The only thing that's left for us Scots this winter is to see how much snow we'll get overall this winter in terms of falling, lying snow and depths (hopefully a decent amount in each month), the Scottish Mean Temperature and whether we'll get a big freeze or not. But of course it's a very different story further south.

[damianslaw]

For sustained cold and snow probably about mid February , if nothing is showing up within the reliable timefrmae by then the chances of a 2 week bitter cold snowy spell rapidly diminish, note the word 'bitter' i.e. severe, lengthy quite cold and quite snowy weather can certainly appear in late feb/early march out of the blue.

Winters 04/05 and 05/06 saw sustained quite cold (not severe) and quite snowy weather from mid-late feb through until mid March. Indeed northerlies and easterlies tend to show their hand more so in late winter/early spring than the depths of winter and especially early winter i.e. december, something those writing off the chance of cold and snow this winter should do well to remember.

Late December is far too early to call off winter, its the same as people writing off summer in late June, forgetting september can still produce the goods this year demonstrating to great affect.

There is absolutely no reason why anyone should be writing off the chances pof snow and cold this winter at this stage - such posts should be deleted.

[Backtrack]

Be honest, who are the two bo-zo's that voted for December? -.-

[mountain shadow]

Nothing to be worried about, the big guns have been out tonight and everything is right in the world.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

^{december and Early Jan is still autumn for south UK normally, not till Feb when high pressure becomes dominant and Atlantic runs out of steam, so last week of Jan if there is still strong} PV ^{etc in FI still on models, then winter may be over for my area,}

^{but generally Feb should see high pressure cold every year}

[feb1991blizzard]

If there is nothing decent on the met office 30 dayer by a week tommorow, i wil be a bit concerned, if nothing by the 13th, then i will start to think possibly its not our year, BUT, this date is NEVER set in stone, it is only because of the NW LRF predicted a possible cold end to Jan and cold february and all other forecasts now seem to be ponting to average - mild atlantic driven weather, a lot will depend on what i read in the strat thread by then..

Then there is the second question, When would i write off winter? Well first of all it depends on what your after, in my case very heavy snowfall then being preserved for a number of nights, ideally this to happen in 2 seperate spells but if its one really good one i will settle for that, up until the last 3 years i woulld say if a realiable forecast out to the end of feb shows this is not likely to happen, then thats cut off for me, but as the last 3 winters havent been like any for 20 years and we used to get heavy snow in march then, plus i am now on higher ground and in the North then i will give it a bit longer, only if there looks to be some sort of promise though.

SO TO SUM UP, I CERTAINLY WONT WRITE OFF WINTER UNTILL ITS OVER, BUT I WILL ALWAYS BE CONCERNED WHEN WE'VE DONE OVER HALF OF IT AND NO THERE IS NO POTENTIAL THERE.

[Aaron]

Late February, though I guess it depends where you live in the UK.. for proper snowfalls, I won't give up hope until mid March, and snow in April is not too uncommon, but I guess if you live in Plymouth or Southampton, you might as well give up by mid February!

Edited December 30, 2011 by Aaron