Atlantic Storms - January Part 2

[Zenarcher]

Yeah its looking like a really bad storm for Iceland and Faroe Islands but like you said it won't make landfall anywhere. Still South Iceland and Faroe Island will see storm force winds.

Edited January 15, 2012 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

Certainly some active weather on offer over the next 7-10days with the possibility of some gale events occurring, details at this stage could change due to the rather topsy turvy model outputs of late.

The periods of current interest in the short term are during Thursday then potentially during the weekend, nothing especially severe but scope for for some very windy weather.

Gale force winds are affecting the Western isles this evening with gusts over 50mph.

I will update in more detail during Wednesday.

Edited January 17, 2012 by Liam J

[Cookie]

Gusting 70 mph here wild one for sure!

[Coast]

The periods of current interest in the short term are during Thursday then potentially during the weekend, nothing especially severe but scope for for some very windy weather.

Two lows seem to interact and give some interesting weather tomorrow for Scotland:

Gusts to 117 km/hr (72 mph) around midday:

Sustained winds around 40 knots through the afternoon:

[Zenarcher]

Looks like Scotland is in for a very windy day tomorrow although not expected to be near what we've had recently I expect 70 to 80mph gusts across Scotland mainly Western parts. That is according to the GFS. NAE has it further North bringing the same wind speeds but only really to Northern Scotland so still disagreement over its positioning yet.

[Liam J]

Severe gales perhaps storm force winds over North and West Scotland during Thursday afternoon with potential gusts over 70mph, but as you say WM we still have divergence between the models as to how far south the strong winds are likely to be affecting. GFS would also bring gale force winds over the Irish sea across the IOM, NW England and SW Scotland. Hopefully later tonight we'll have a clear picture on the final result.

Edited January 18, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

Current Met O warning is mainly for snow:

Issued at - 18 Jan 2012, 10:14

Valid from - 19 Jan 2012, 00:00

Valid to - 20 Jan 2012, 10:00

Frequent and occasionally heavy snow showers are likely across the north and northwest of Scotland on Thursday, particularly on high ground. Accumulations of locally 5 to 10 cm are possible on ground above about 200m, with a risk of as much as 15 cm above around 300-400m. Drifting is likely in strong westerly winds. At low levels some temporary deposits of snow are possible, mainly in the far north. Icy surfaces will be an additional hazard, including at low levels, where surfaces freeze following showers and lasting into Friday morning. The public should be aware of possible disruption to transport.

But looks like the areas other charts have mapped out for gusty winds

[Zenarcher]

Update For Tomorrow

GFS has moved over and agreed with NAE on the 12z run.

12pm severe gales across Western Scotland with the Northwestern parts seeing the worst.

3pm severe gales start to move more inland across Scotland with the Northern mainland and Northwestern parts seeing the worst

6pm gales across Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England meanwhile the Northern mainland of Scotland continues to see the worst with severe gales

9pm Northeastern Scotland now seeing severe gales meanwhile Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland and Northern England continue seeing gale force winds.

12am winds start to ease across Scotland but Eastern and Southern parts still seeing gales. Northern Ireland and Northern England will also see gales.

Into early Friday morning the wind should ease off. Confidence is now better than this morning after the GFS and NAE both agree now on their 12z runs this afternoon.

[Coast]

Woke up to some gusty wind this morning and looking at a couple of sources, one shows we are getting more wind in the South currently, the other the complete opposite

47.1 mph max gust for us overnight

[Liam J]

The wind has been increasing throughout the day and I'm getting some gusts over 40mph touching 50mph especially around the showers, Western Scotland experiencing gale force winds with gusts in excess of 60mph, likely to strengthen further this evening.

The winds during Saturday at this stage are likely to be even stronger across the NW of Britain, severe gales gusting over 70mph.

Plenty to keep an eye on over the coming days.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Mean speeds Saturday

Edited January 19, 2012 by Liam J

[Liam J]

Well it's been a pretty wild evening here with a few gusts around 60mph about an hour ago as a rather beefy shower rattled past! Pretty chilly @ 2.8c along with the wind chill which makes your face feel like ice, another hail shower blowing through as I type.

All eyes on Saturday with further gales or severe gales affecting the north and west.

Edited January 19, 2012 by Liam J

[SparkleS]

Is it coming this way into south lancs?

[Liam J]

The radar is looking pretty quiet down around Lancs, showers moving towards the east with a Slight SE'ly movement from the NW'ly winds.

[SparkleS]

Damn it, its always boring weather here thanks anyway!!

[Liam J]

Don't forget to use the free Netweather V6 radar folks, lot's of brill functions to play around with, keep track of every little blob of ppn

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=radarv6;sess=

[Liam J]

A quick look at Saturday according to the GFS 18z.

Very strong jet stream diving NW - SE

Gale force winds affecting the north and north west, severe over NW Scotland.

Possible storm force winds affecting NE Sotland and Isles, gales continuing over many northern areas.

60-70mph gusts perhaps slightly higher.

Gusts in excess of 70mph over NE Britain with very strong gusts down the east coast.

Edited January 20, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

A little bit of convective potential across the country tomorrow:

Shear

Storm helicity

Gust across Scotland and down the spine of Northern England into the Midlands first thing:

and into the middle of the day

Fairly high sustained 10M winds in line with a couple of days ago:

[Liam J]

The winds will start to increase over Northern Britain through this evening with gales developing overnight, severe over northern & western Scotland and the N'rn Isles during Saturday afternoon, these then transferring eastwards. Gales also affecting the Irish Sea into Northern England and N Ireland. Gusts around 70mph over exposed parts of Scotland with 50-60mph likely further south, potential for minor disruption.

Gales over many NW locations, severe in the far NW.

60mph+ gusts into the NW

65mph+ gusts, particularly bad through N&E Scotland at this stage, as with strong westerly winds we have potential for lee wave gusts affecting areas east of high ground in NE England, the models don't tend to pick up on this very well.

Edited January 20, 2012 by Liam J

[Liam J]

Get ready for another blow up north! Winds are already increasing in many areas this evening and will continue to do so through the night with westerly gales develping over N Britain. No real change from my earlier post using the 12z GFS data. We see a sub 980mb depression tracking SE close to the Northern Isles during Saturday afternoon.

Gusts over 60mph affecting NW Scotland & Isles, perhaps pushing 70mph.

Very strong winds transferring eastwards through the day.

NAE showing gales affecting the north.

Pretty windy over northern counties of England with gusts over 50mph likely here.

Edited January 20, 2012 by Liam J

[Liam J]

Winds are gusting 50-60mph currently over parts of NW Scotland, Altnaharra 58mph gust in the last hour >> http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ <<

[SparkleS]

I couldnt tell you what the wind speed/gusts are here in lancashire, but i know its quite nasty gusts out there that appear to be sustaining at the moment! Lets put it this way, its very noisy out there tonight.

[SnowObsessor90]

Flipping heck!

Not sure of the exact wind/gust speeds, perhaps someone would feel free to enlighten me by morning but by the sounds of it they must be pretty strong.

[Terminal Moraine]

Brierlow Bar, just south of Buxton, has recorded a gust of 86 mph earlier this morning. The mean speed up at the Cat and Fiddle is 49 mph with a maximum 30 second average of 61 mph recently.

[Aaron]

Leeds Bradford recorded 63mph

[Liam J]

Morning, Windy old start to the day over many areas, 50-60mph gusts in the north and west. Funnelling of the wind through Capil Curig which is very common and producing gusts of 70mph atm. Also Loftus on the east coast recording gale force winds gusting over 50mph, so the lee affect is in operation.

Strongest winds expected this afternoon.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Scotland & Northern England are covered by a Netw watch for high winds http://www.netweathe...rts;reg=3;sess=

Edited January 21, 2012 by Liam J