Atlantic Storms - January Part 2

[The PIT]

Evening guys, I can't see winds that strong on any of the model guidance, 50-55mph for some exposed areas like here for example. The TV forecasts did mention lee gusts, I don't think the models take this factor into consideration?

GFS 12 oz shows gusts up into higher sixties crossing Scotland than sinking down towards northern and Eastern England before exiting the country.

[Liam J]

Gusts around 50-55mph although the shading on this chart is 52-56mph, I expect lee gusts may be slightly higher, rather a weak depression and doesn't warrant a warning imo and I've seen winds stronger than this being progged with no warnings..... but perhaps the meto are covering their backs after the last episode.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Liam J

[The PIT]

Ah well I guess the met office have got it wrong then.

[Liam J]

As I mentioned perhaps the models underestimate the lee wave effect, we shall see what occurs overnight. Not looking to windy anywhere atm.

[P-M]

As I mentioned perhaps the models underestimate the lee wave effect, we shall see what occurs overnight. Not looking to windy anywhere atm.

lol you always make me laugh with comments like that Liam. Howay matey if the NW was projected to have 60+mph on the eto forecast maps than you would be speculating as to what may happen. All I can say is already the wind is picking up out there so maybe (just a slim chance) that something stronger will develop.... :-)) (Other than the NW gales biased posts I do like the rest of your posts which are informative etc so don't take that to heart I am only having a laugh with you! )

[Liam J]

lol you always make me laugh with comments like that Liam. Howay matey if the NW was projected to have 60+mph on the eto forecast maps than you would be speculating as to what may happen. All I can say is already the wind is picking up out there so maybe (just a slim chance) that something stronger will develop.... :-)) (Other than the NW gales biased posts I do like the rest of your posts which are informative etc so don't take that to heart I am only having a laugh with you! )

Sorry you feel like that but I was only stating a fact that I can't see any gusts being progged that high on any charts and making a valid point about the models underestimating the potential for lee wave gusts during these set ups, the gusts may be much stronger than predicted in the NE. Part of Cumbria is covered by the Met warning so I'm not being biased in my opinion here.

The wind is picking up here also but I'm not expecting anything more than just a windy night, it may be much worse in the NE.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Liam J

[lorenzo]

It is a bit blowy up here just now, I think our 'scale' for what constitutes a storm has been moved around a fair bit in the last few weeks.

Unless it is an extra-tropical storm, a RACY depression, a bawbag, or a spawn of bawbag with sting jets included, then it's just breezy !

[Liam J]

Yes Lorenzo, the bar has been raised high over the last few weeks, so anything less intense than what we have become used too is being underestimated! It will be a very windy night in places but nothing on the scale we have experienced just lately.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Liam J

[Aaron]

After that 77mph gust here in Leeds not too long ago (a week or two?), nothing is going to surprise me unless we get a storm even more severe then that..

Edited January 11, 2012 by Aaron

[weatherobsuk]

Gusts of 66mph in Buxton this morning, the BBC Forecast was pretty much spot-on for what we are having at the moment, albeit the winds slightly further south than expected but probobally heights are the result of this.

[weatherobsuk]

cranked up to 77mph as of 7.20am, must be funneling going on between Axe Edge and the Goyt exacerbating the wind speeds.

[Terminal Moraine]

cranked up to 77mph as of 7.20am, must be funneling going on between Axe Edge and the Goyt exacerbating the wind speeds.

Blimey! There must be some sort of local effect, the highest gust here, last time I looked half an hour ago, was 56 mph.

[Cheese Rice]

Gusting 61/62 mph here. Fence that was destroyed in last weeks windy spell is getting crushed further...

[Liam J]

A windy night and morning in many places, a browse over the official stations shows maximum gusts were around 50-55mph with Loftus recording 56mph which is spot on with what the models had been progging, as I mentioned last night.

Things looking very quiet in the Atlantic for the foreseeable as high pressure takes charge bringing some cold days and frosty nights, a welcome period with a more seasonal feel in the air.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

Can any members with actual, substantiated windspeed data for today please post it in here so I can keep a check on some forecast information please?

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2210137

[Terminal Moraine]

Mean wind speed here at 0900 is 28 mph.

Highest gust since midnight 56 mph W at 0451.

I see Bradwell Edge is in a league of its own again with mean speeds over the last hour and a half between 61 and 70 mph and 30 second averages up to 83 mph.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Terminal Moraine

[Coast]

Thousands of Continental passengers have taken unexpected detours the last two months when their non-stop flights from Europe had to stop for fuel because of fierce headwinds over the Atlantic.

The stronger-than-normal winds led to the diversion of 43 of 1,100 flights headed to Newark and Washington's Dulles Airport, United-Continental spokeswoman Megan McCarthy says. That's more than three times the 12 fuel stops the airline was forced to make in December 2010. Similar weather has led to 14 diverted flights this month. The detours most often have been to Gander and Goose Bay in Newfoundland and Labrador, but also have included Boston. The refueling stops tacked up to 45 minutes onto a trip, and the stiff winds could have added more to the delays, McCarthy says. "These are the most extreme winds we've seen in 10 years," she says. The planes weren't in danger of running out of fuel, McCarthy says. "Fuel stops are well within our established safety parameters, and they were done with an ample amount of fuel on board," she says.

Since 2001, the average headwinds encountered when returning from Europe in the month of December were 30 knots, according to United-Continental data. Last month, they averaged 47 knots, and reached as high as 60 knots on several days. The trips all involved Boeing 757s, an aircraft that has a shorter range and holds less fuel than a larger Boeing 777. Continental, which merged with United in 2010, has long used 757s on various European routes, although United hadn't previously used them on trans-Atlantic flights, McCarthy says.

United-Continental wasn't the only airline to make unscheduled pit stops. US Airways diverted four trans-Atlantic flights in December and two in January. American Airlines spokesman Tim Smith says it also has made a few diversions. The Federal Aviation Administration says it's aware of the unscheduled stops and is looking into the issue. Some passengers on the diverted flights haven't been happy with an unscheduled stop.

Pascale Sabbagh of Washington says she was on a Jan. 3 Continental flight from Paris to Dulles that was sent to Gander. "I feel cheated, because I bought a direct flight, and this wasn't a direct flight," says Sabbagh, who works for an international research institute. She says many of her fellow passengers missed connecting flights and had to spend the night in Washington. United-Continental's McCarthy says the airline sometimes knows before takeoff that it will have to make a fuel stop because of winds, but other times, the need arises in the air. As for inconvenienced passengers, she says, the airline "offers compensation as a gesture of goodwill when the circumstances warrant."

http://www.usatoday....fuel/52504828/1

Jet stream been a bit stronger then this year, driving our winter weather pattern so far?

[weatherobsuk]

Crikey, 79mph in Buxton from that topographic funnelling going on throughout the morning. 09:47 the recording was and winds are already receeding here so looks like that'll be the worst of the winds for a couple of days as the high is now building in.

[The PIT]

We got 48 mph at some point this morning probably a few minutes after I left for work becuase the trees went crazy as I was walking in.

[Liam J]

Interesting article coast, really shows just how strong the jet stream has been this winter.

A quieter spell now taking hold of the UK, nice frosty nights coming up. (At last)

[Zenarcher]

Am I right in saying because the jet stream was stronger than usual and with PV near us it was the perfect mix for these storms?

[Liam J]

Am I right in saying because the jet stream was stronger than usual and with PV near us it was the perfect mix for these storms?

Yes WM we have seen lots of energy on tap this winter to fuel these storms, quite a bumpy ride so far would you agree? Becoming quieter for foreseeable future over the UK. Then we have the question next week on the pattern change and where do we go from here which is still up in the air!

GFS & ECM are modelling a significant storm for around the 18th which will pass to the north of Britain so not likely to affect the mainland, worth a mention and the N Isles would certainly take a battering if it continues to appear in the models over the next week, thats if we don't see it vanish in future outputs or deflect well to the north.

Other than that theirs not a lot to get excited about apart from the potential cold spell which may or may not materialise!

Edited January 13, 2012 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

I'm glad to take a break from these storms still need repairs done from last month a lot of people getting stuff fixed as well so have to wait for now. Yep that storm looks bad for Iceland later next week. GFS may be over doing it because it doesn't have much support however it could be right. I really hope the ECM is right and we get cold snowy weather and if we are lucky enough I wouldn't mind this cold weather to last until the end of winter.

[Liam J]

Yes I agree with you, nice to see Mr Atlantic winding down and giving us a break from the relentless onslaught! I'm hoping I won't have to arrange any more roof repairs this season, but who knows!

No then..... Wheres our SNOW

[Liam J]

Look at the little beauty on the GFS 12z run, exceptionally tight core with a 955mb centre but thankfully it won't making landfall anywhere, this beast would be packing hurricane force winds around the southern flank.

Edited January 15, 2012 by Liam J