Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[Northernlights]

Howling gale here now when I was out checking the Coos and fairly mild at 8c.Notice Moscow now getting down to -10c/-14c after a long period of fairly mild temperatures so if a pattern change comes from the east then some cold is now there to tap into.

[LomondSnowstorm]

LS, what are your thoughts on Thursday? Charts look interesting to me; strong winds, precipitation and -6C uppers all in place, but Met Office are forecasting 5C and a light rain shower for me on Thursday.

I've seen this quite often from the met - if it doesn't look like an all snow event, they'll put rain on their icon forecasts and sprinkle a few flakes around on the map. The 36 hour forecasting from the Met however is vastly improved because of their new toy (it's free to view on Monday!) and I believe the 'invent beta' site is based on that. In the meantime, the met office's own NAE chart gives us this http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/17/basis18/ukuk/prty/12011918_1718.gif

Suggestive of widespread precipitation pushing in, with temperatures at 950hpa around 0C http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/17/basis18/ukuk/t925/12011918_1718.gif so snow for inland areas. For the east, uppers are perhaps not quite cold enough for all of the showers (I think these are showers and not a front?) to be wintry at low levels http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/17/basis18/ukuk/t850/12011918_1718.gif

Since this is the latest fax chart, I'd imagine it ties in with the NAE, so the more organised precipitation is unlikely to appear before midnight on Friday

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVJ89.png Behind it you can see less cold uppers moving in, so lowland snow may not hang around for very long.

[Hairy Celt]

Now 8.5C but no gale here at all.

Slugs crawling (do they crawl? slide? hop?) around in the yard but I kind of doubt whether they have much spare cognitive function available for weather modelling, so my frantic recording of their tracks for interpretation was possibly futile.

[A Winter's Tale]

I liked the latest GFS run.

Polar maritime blasts then week then a very interesting period between the 23rd and 28th of January where northerlies and -5C air are all present. Could result in a very interesting cold spell. Although it isn't brilliant for an eastarly soon, cold air over Europe is always around which is a start and there are signals for perhaps some blocking and of course GP remains confident about February and maybe the chance of high pressure over Greenland may increase.

You still can't rule out an easterly within the next 15-20 days but I think we'll have to see some hints of one in the models soon to have any chances of one - but the situation is changing and evolving fast and needs close inspection! Potentially this cold period next week could end up being significant and perhaps tie in with the uncertainty of the met office update.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I liked the latest GFS run.

Polar maritime blasts then week then a very interesting period between the 23rd and 28th of January where northerlies and -5C air are all present. Could result in a very interesting cold spell. Although it isn't brilliant for an eastarly soon, cold air over Europe is always around which is a start and there are signals for perhaps some blocking and of course GP remains confident about February and maybe the chance of high pressure over Greenland may increase.

You still can't rule out an easterly within the next 15-20 days but I think we'll have to see some hints of one in the models soon to have any chances of one - but the situation is changing and evolving fast and needs close inspection! Potentially this cold period next week could end up being significant and perhaps tie in with the uncertainty of the met office update.

Having looked at all the runs on the models, there are still some promising easterlies within 240 hours, but a lot more 'cold trough' type setups. Although a particularly extreme example as far as ground level cold goes, we must remember that 09/10 came from a cold trough setup http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2009/archives-2009-12-21-0-0.png

The height composites for that chart aren't that far away from the current 8-14 day setup, though everything was further east in December 2009. Getting blocking in place over Greenland/Iceland/Scandinavia is the first step - get the cold in (I'd say northerly or northeasterly initially would be ideal for getting deep cold established) and the snow will follow. We're still not near that point yet, other than a few polar maritime incursions, but we're potentially moving toward a major cold spell.

[lorenzo]

North and NW onto radar watch from midnight, then the rest of us have to hope the system has enough ooomph to make it across the country.

Just in NMM range for mid-day Thursday now.

Looking towards the end of the month a distinct lack of purple on the NH chart. The PV smashed to pieces, great to see however it still wants to cling on to the death by re-establishing it's remnants over Greenland again and again.

Longer term FI Trend watch - Nearly there though, surely won't be long until we see some of the mid-atlantic blocking turn up on the runs.

Medium range - more of the cold in play now and UKMO model is worth keeping an eye on beyond this cold shot.

Underpinning this is a definite uncertainty on how the pattern will develop, the meto update presents 2 different options and you can see on the Ensembles that the scatter is considerable at 144 hrs.

Let's hope for some upgrades today on this snow coming through !

[Cheggers]

7C here earlier, not a windy as I was expecting, and rain was minor overnight. Looking forward to potential cold and snaw, and the last few icy days was very welcome

[GulberwickWeather]

Temps falling quite quickly up here. Almost 7C at 7.30 this morning now down to 3.8C (currently falling at a rate of 2.9C/hr) and showers already turning wintry.

[snowy owl]

Bit blowy out and no rain - was expecting to be drookit on my walk this morning (had the waterproofs and everything on!) Not feeling too cold just now. A good bit brighter than earlier this morning.

[GulberwickWeather]

Heavy sleet here at the moment>

[edo]

6.7 here after a high of 8.9 and feeling pleasant....the morning winds have died down....I am currently telling everyone who keeps saying it is going to snow tomorrow that it is not going to snow.....but there is a weather warning my colleagues tell me....aghhhhhhhhhhhh......mind you I may look daft should it now snow in Perth tomorrow....must go check the models....

in the meantime its a balmy -29.9 in http://www.kimmirutweather.com/

[GulberwickWeather]

Heavy snow shower here now with some hail mixed in for good measure! Windy as well, top gust almost 50kts.

[November13]

That looks like a trick of the light between the camera, the windscreen and the approaching car headlights.

I agree not credible at all! Not saying I don't beleive in UFO's but thats just a light reflection.

[Northernlights]

J.ust had a sharp hail shower temperature fell from 6c to 4c.

[Cheggers]

Just had the news reporting possible 15" snaw over higher ground through Central Scotland!!!!

[blitzen]

Just had the news reporting possible 15" snaw over higher ground through Central Scotland!!!!

Blimey that's a turn up isn't it? Sure all these sleepless nights aren't affecting you! Was that News 24 Cheggers?

[Cheggers]

Blimey that's a turn up isn't it? Sure all these sleepless nights aren't affecting you! Was that News 24 Cheggers?

Nope, local news on Capital Radio, get the impression she meant to say 15cm (amateur!!!) anyhoo, don't have sleepless nights yet, missus feeding so not a lot I can help with on that front, so I just snore away, but if required, I'm sure a short arm jab would be aimed in my direction.

[Northernlights]

Just had a sharp hail shower temperature fell from 6c to 4c.

2.8c now so temperature steadily falling.

[over_the_rainbow]

6.7 here after a high of 8.9 and feeling pleasant....the morning winds have died down....I am currently telling everyone who keeps saying it is going to snow tomorrow that it is not going to snow.....but there is a weather warning my colleagues tell me....aghhhhhhhhhhhh......mind you I may look daft should it now snow in Perth tomorrow....must go check the models....

I'm with you, I think in Perth the best we can hope for is a hint of sleety rain tomorrow. I do expect Aberfeldy, Pitlochry etc to do pretty well though. Hope it's out turn soon.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Temperatures on Thursday evening look pretty good for snow

Uppers in the east are still particularly high at -5 but it could be high enough http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/18/basis12/ukuk/t850/12011918_1812.gif

Uppers aren't quite as good on the NMM. One of those models is a lot better at dealing with uppers and placements of systems but for the life of me I can't remember which one! Let's hope it's the NAE.

[Soaring Hawk]

Hmmm, after reading the geese skein, slug crawling model outputs and of the 15" of snow Thursday night, I'm wondering if its a good idea of mine to drive back home to East Ayrshire from Newcastle after work Thursday?

[Hairy Celt]

Sh11tty little sleet showers all day blown in on a gusty westerly. Was 7C this morning, now 3C, and feels less as they say. Certainly doesn't feel fewer.

C'mon snow, we wants snow days, we wants, we wants...

SH, wouldn't think your journey too traumatic although we all know the mantra about snow being hard to forecast. When will satnavs be linked to ppn radar by default? Never in this poxy universe.

(no it wasn't a good day.)

Edited January 18, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[Soaring Hawk]

Sh11tty little sleet showers all day blown in on a gusty westerly. Was 7C this morning, now 3C, and feels less as they say. Certainly doesn't feel fewer.

C'mon snow, we wants snow days, we wants, we wants...

SH, wouldn't think your journey too traumatic although we all know the mantra about snow being hard to forecast. When will satnavs be linked to ppn radar by default? Never in this poxy universe.

(no it wasn't a good day.)

Oh poor you. (Why wasn't it a good day?)

[Hairy Celt]

Oh poor you. (Why wasn't it a good day?)

Low blood suger probably about 5 o'clock - healthy portion of xmas cake has sorted that

8.37 update - it's really flippin wet this evening, cold and slightly sleety rain just sloshing down. As young HC would say, I'm not going out in that!

Edited January 18, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[edo]

3.4 here now.... looking like may just see something wintry tomorrow or Friday if it sneaks through...suspect those with a bit of altiude centrally may actually do fairly well with strong uppers even hitting the heady heights of -7 ...but then temps rise briskly on Friday night for a bit before falling away again and leaving a chilly and potentially snowy saturday for many....as ever though on a knife edge