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Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

lorenzo

By lorenzo
in Spring Weather Discussion

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Good seeing snow falling in Edinburgh City Centre today even though it was not lying! How is it looking snow-wise for my trip to Pitlochry on Saturday and trip back down the road Sunday?

Colder uppers are set to return by Saturday midday, so could be some wintriness about http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/19/basis12/ukuk/t850/12012112_1912.gif

Sunday looks potentially less cold at the moment but it really depends on your model of choice - UKMO for example has a cold northwesterly persisting so again the potential for wintry showers http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ukmo/2012/01/19/basis12/ukuk/t850/12012212_1912.gif

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Temp has risen to 4c now. Looking like a non-event here. :( Good to see some people getting the white stuff though!

There's a band of precipitation right across the north of Scotland at the moment and behind it are -6/-7C uppers. It was always meant to be a bit dodgy before 6pm anyway.

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sn0wman Contributor

sn0wman

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
Posted

There's a band of precipitation right across the north of Scotland at the moment and behind it are -6/-7C uppers. It was always meant to be a bit dodgy before 6pm anyway.

Think I might have called it a non-event a bit too early lol! Temperature has also dropped down to 2.9c now! :D

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Benvironment Accomplished

Benvironment

Posted
  • Location: Braemar
  • Weather Preferences: Subzero
  • Location: Braemar
Posted

Temp has just nudged below freezing, so the 1 or 2mm of snow that fell a wee while ago is still on the ground and has gone crunchy. That's the first time that's happened here since......oh lord, bloody ages ago! Nearly a whole year!!

It does at least look and feel like winter at the moment.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

In case Lorenzo doesn't get on to post this. Simply stunning anomaly chart.

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Hairy Celt Maestro

Hairy Celt

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted

Fluttering around 1C here still, lots of frozen slush, it's gonna be lethal tomorrow so take care.

If, if, if, the GFS 18z were right, we could see a prolonged cold spell starting.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Lss can you explain that chart please? :D

Lots of blocking to the north, low pressure/ jet stream tracking south, easterly-type winds = lots of snow

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Author
Posted

Were back. No settled snaw here, but had plenty of beefy snaw showers. 1c still

Interesting read.... http://www.nasa.gov/...na20120118.html

LS that is a great chart - nice :).

The Nina signature has been a point of chance this winter, the SSTs are there, but just about everything else has defied a classic hemispheric Nina Winter. At points very Nino, good article Cheggers.

As far as it plays for Feb, looking at SSW for Jan>Feb it is clear that we have an SSW ( bar the shouting) see Chiono post regarding the 58-60, it is as close as it can be.

What no-one envisaged was the severely positive AO/NAO index - record breaking almost and in conjunction with expectations from the last couple of years we reach a frustrating point.

GP ramped an easterly, angular momentum falls the SSW has smashed the vortex, it literally is - where the chips will fall . The chips being MLB or northern blocking.

The Meto and no-one else can figure this out and FI goes from 144 - 168 - 96 dependant on each short wave exiting US. This is good it means what you read on here is a true read of things not a ramped alternative..

It has been a really slower than pause evolution but it is one that isn't finished and some ENS runs hint at the potential for the Winter everyone has been waiting for... jam tomorrow might be today by the start of feb, remember we are colder now than the mildest Nov on record..

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

LS that is a great chart - nice :).

The Nina signature has been a point of chance this winter, the SSTs are there, but just about everything else has defied a classic hemispheric Nina Winter. At points very Nino, good article Cheggers.

As far as it plays for Feb, looking at SSW for Jan>Feb it is clear that we have an SSW ( bar the shouting) see Chiono post regarding the 58-60, it is as close as it can be.

What no-one envisaged was the severely positive AO/NAO index - record breaking almost and in conjunction with expectations from the last couple of years we reach a frustrating point.

GP ramped an easterly, angular momentum falls the SSW has smashed the vortex, it literally is - where the chips will fall . The chips being MLB or northern blocking.

The Meto and no-one else can figure this out and FI goes from 144 - 168 - 96 dependant on each short wave exiting US. This is good it means what you read on here is a true read of things not a ramped alternative..

It has been a really slower than pause evolution but it is one that isn't finished and some ENS runs hint at the potential for the Winter everyone has been waiting for... jam tomorrow might be today by the start of feb, remember we are colder now than the mildest Nov on record..

Nice analysis there. You make an interesting point about the model output uncertainty reflecting the uncertainty in the overall pattern i.e. there's no silver bullet waiting in the wings to change the output. It really does just depend on where x goes at y and at what angle the jet's tilted, and no amount of teleconnections hunting will change that for us. There are two 'extremes' of output, one where the Russian high gets stuck and ends up too far south and east with very mild southwesterlies dominating and the other being a toned down beginning of February 1947. It will most likely be a variation on one of those themes. 18Z ensembles look good:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120119/18/slp-168.png

Let's just hope it doesn't evaporate overnight into the more disappointing scenario.

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Author
Posted (edited)

You make me sound like the meto LS !

LOL

Simply put the Azores ridge needs a nudge back, the russian high linking with greeny high will happen... it is just when that is key...could be rapid could be slow just now..

for February the Atlantic stops near Scandi, the GWO determines where the 'weather' reaches before that block.

The strat determines ( on reformation) whether we get a cold pool on one side or the other of the above block.

Azores flattened by start of Feb,. Winter on the way..Sounding like the Meto just now isnt too bad - they dont know either !

LS you just know the ECM will be on board with todays 12z GFS, ECM oled the way for a bit but succombed to the mild outlier!

Edited by lorenzo
Damn Models confusing everyone !
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

You make me sound like the meto LS !

LOL

Simply put the Azores ridge needs a nudge back, the russian high linking with greeny high will happen... it is just when that is key...could be rapid could be slow just now..

for February the Atlantic stops near Scandi, the GWO determines where the 'weather' reaches before that block.

The strat determines ( on reformation) whether we get a cold pool on one side or the other of the above block.

Azores flattened by start of Feb,. Winter on the way..

Sounding like the Meto just now isnt too bad - they dont know either !

Indeed, where the reformed vortex (assuming there is one of sorts) ends up is proving extremely challenging at the moment - yesterday it was modelled to return to Greenland, today more towards the Siberian Plains! The latter is of course better but as GP says a top down cooling isn't necessarily the worst thing in the world. I have to say that as much as things appear to keep getting 'put back' I have a good feeling about how things are coming together at the moment. We knew this would be the key timeframe for the Atlantic to release its grip and we've certainly got a shot at using it to its full potential.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Looks like a whole raft of precipitation heading into Ayrshire and Lanarkshire at the moment, maybe even making it as far as SS. Stirling, Perthshire and the Central-West Highlands also look to be taking a hit, the vast majority of it being snow I'd imagine. There's potential for other central and eastern areas too, though the Firth of Tay snowshield has barely suffered a dent tonight.

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Hairy Celt Maestro

Hairy Celt

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted (edited)

Looks like a whole raft of precipitation heading into Ayrshire and Lanarkshire at the moment, maybe even making it as far as SS. Stirling, Perthshire and the Central-West Highlands also look to be taking a hit, the vast majority of it being snow I'd imagine. There's potential for other central and eastern areas too, though the Firth of Tay snowshield has barely suffered a dent tonight.

Likewise here - no ppn since the temp dropped low enough for snow and cloud cover will be the killer for most soon.

(SS, what's the difference between heating oil and derv?)

Edited by Hairy Celt
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Likewise here - no ppn since the temp dropped low enough for snow and cloud cover will be the killer for most soon.

We still have most of tomorrow morning I reckon for lying snow to stick around, though precipitation may be running short in the next 3 hours http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/19/basis18/ukuk/t850/12012012_1918.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/19/basis18/ukuk/t850/12012012_1918.gif

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Hairy Celt Maestro

Hairy Celt

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted

We still have most of tomorrow morning I reckon for lying snow to stick around, though precipitation may be running short in the next 3 hours http://expert-images...012012_1918.gif

http://expert-images...012012_1918.gif

I think I'll put this one down as a 'marginal, unfulfilled' and hope that something more northerly hammers in mercilessly soon.

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Ceitidh Explorer

Ceitidh

Posted
  • Location: East Kilbride South Lanarkshire (190m)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Frost and Thunderstorms
  • Location: East Kilbride South Lanarkshire (190m)
Posted

Just looked out and plenty of snow has fallen. Good covering even main road is white.

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