Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[LomondSnowstorm]

^{Aye, raw, cold and pretty wild outside today with showers of snow, sleet and rain blowing everywhere. Snow cover took a battering through the night, now only patches left. Hope we see it return soon. 3C}

By tomorrow morning you've got a shot at seeing some falling snow at least again http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/21/basis12/ukuk/prty/12012206_2112.gif

[edo]

Even before the vaunted easterly widespread sub -5C uppers are going to be present across Scotland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm482.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

That last chart especially looks quite interesting. Anyway, looking fine so far for the easterly http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012012112/ECH1-144.GIF?21-0

Good stuff LS not bad for T144 let's hope it's still there in next few runs...I'm gonna be positive and say we hav well and truly on the way to a decent cold spell now and hopefully less volatile changing between runs

[A Winter's Tale]

Very interesting run from the GFS with a decent shout for an easterly.

Got a few questions though:

1) Are the models showing a weakening PV?

2) Are some models showing the PV moving and where?

3) Has recent runs increased the probabilities for height rises over Greenland/Iceland or Scandinavia?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Very interesting run from the GFS with a decent shout for an easterly.

Got a few questions though:

1) Are the models showing a weakening PV?

2) Are some models showing the PV moving and where?

3) Has recent runs increased the probabilities for height rises over Greenland/Iceland or Scandinavia?

1) yes, very much so, and the strat forecasts suggest it will weaken further.

2) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012012112/ECH1-0.GIF?21-0 currently it's centred over Canada, but it looks to be moving back towards the pole perhaps, but there's a lot of uncertainty about this, some models suggest it may break up completely with others suggesting it may end up exiting towards Scandinavia.

3) Yes, very much so. The massive block over Russia heads westwards on all models, so a Scandi high is almost inevitable. If/when it sets up, that opens up the road to retrogression northwestwards towards Greenland, supported by the signal for the PV to head towards Scandi in 10+ days time (subject to much tooing and froing of course).

[LomondSnowstorm]

Good stuff LS not bad for T144 let's hope it's still there in next few runs...I'm gonna be positive and say we hav well and truly on the way to a decent cold spell now and hopefully less volatile changing between runs

Yes, I think we may still have to endure at least another 24-36 hours of hiding behind the couch when each timeframe updates (at least for me anyway!) but IF we can overcome that hurdle and get the high to push west we can look at the severity of the spell and where we might go in the longer term in more detail. Model agreement at the moment is pretty good but we're dependent on shortwave features which are notoriously fickle so slight changes at 144 hours have a massive impact down the line.

[Sawel]

Ah the latest output showing a possible easterly is really whetting my appetite.

Time to dip into the archives on Wetterzentrale for some historical easterly eye-candy. I've read a few posters making a comparison to the easterly of 1956, I'll post a few charts up after I've had a look.

[Sawel]

Stunning charts, this easterly was quite brief...

[edo]

Lol LS im trying to be positive....that's the hardest thing to understand....spend all winter looking for all these major pointers like weakening PV negative AO Getting rid of the Azores high etc etc and then shortwaves at 144 can change the whole picture...Weather must be the most complicated science of them all....off back behind the couch

[Hairy Celt]

4C and still windy out, not as windy as it'd be if I could let those red-shirted muppetts know what a football is. Jeez time for some drugs to unwind after that dibblysquaddadddleing gibberydiddling tripe. :wallbash:

[Cheggers]

5C and wind now easing, at least the wind has dried some of the puddles up on the road.

Anyway, going to do some 419 scam baiting while it's quiet. :ph34r:

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Anyway, going to do some 419 scam baiting while it's quiet. :ph34r:

DEAR MR CHEGGERS,

THIS EMAILS MAY COME YOU AS SURPRISE. MY NAME IS DOCTOR SCOT SKIER AND I AM SENIOR MANAGER OF BANK OF MWEMBEKO PROVICE. RECENTLY, ONE VERY IMPORTANT CLIENT DIED LEAVING $1000 000 000 (ONE BILLION UNITED STATES DOLLARS) OF SNOW IN ACCOUNT WITH NO BENEFICIARY. I AM SEEKING TRUSTWORTHY PERSONS TO FACILITATE TRANSACTION OF THIS SNOW FOR INVESTMENT IN OVERSEAS AREA....

Edit. The best one I ever had was from the Microsoft International e-mail Lottery. Told me I had won 5 million USD. I was totally taken in until I noticed that they were also throwing in a 'brand new i-pad'. Then I thought, 'Hey, wait a minute'.... :lol:

Edited January 21, 2012 by scottish skier

[blitzen]

Nick S keeps chuntering on about needing that trough to split. Any of the more informed know which trough he is talking about? because it looks like a plate of spaghetti to me!

Edited January 21, 2012 by Blitzen

[edo]

5C and wind now easing, at least the wind has dried some of the puddles up on the road.

Anyway, going to do some 419 scam baiting while it's quiet. :ph34r:

I like the sound of this even though i have no idea what your talking about

[snowy owl]

DEAR MR CHEGGERS,

THIS EMAILS MAY COME YOU AS SURPRISE. MY NAME IS DOCTOR SCOT SKIER AND I AM SENIOR MANAGER OF BANK OF MWEMBEKO PROVICE. RECENTLY, ONE VERY IMPORTANT CLIENT DIED LEAVING $1000 000 000 (ONE BILLION UNITED STATES DOLLARS) OF SNOW IN ACCOUNT WITH NO BENEFICIARY. I AM SEEKING TRUSTWORTHY PERSONS TO FACILITATE TRANSACTION OF THIS SNOW FOR INVESTMENT IN OVERSEAS AREA....

Oh yes i will reply to you - but where my fake link?? to remove funds from my account detailings that you need urgently to complete the transaction. Snow Joke.

On a personal note be V careful of any phone calls to your business or home, we were scammed by a phone call and subsequent advertising contracts for our business. We checked the company was a registered company etc. It turns out the company keeps changing its name and is being investigated by many bodies but they are still trading to this day - we didn't get our money back because our credit card company are awful!! some help that was when a fraudulent product was never fully received. In fact i would now never take anyones word for anything unless it is a well known company. Many many people/firms have lost vast amounts of money we were a little luckier as we didn't loose masses but nevertheless was very bad and still bothers me to this day. Always check trading standards etc so many scams out there. Final word - don't trust Your money to anyone!

Edited January 21, 2012 by snowy owl

[lorenzo]

Nick S keeps chuntering on about needing that trough to split. Any of the more informed know which trough he is talking about? because it looks like a late of spaghetti to me!

This is the earlier GFS 12z run at 114, what Nick is referring to is the troughing over the UK, circled. If this splits then you get a low heading south / south east and it undercuts the block, this is the trigger low for an Easterly.

This split helps the monster high edge west meaning the Russian High becomes a Scandi High then the next stage is a Greenland High..The other thing I picked up is the cut off low can be positively NE/SW tilted or negatively tilted.NW/SE. I think the negatively tilted low is the one we are after here.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I like the sound of this even though i have no idea what your talking about

http://www.419eater.com/

Some of the stories are hilarous.

This remains my favourite

http://419eater.com/html/joe_eboh.htm

[Cheggers]

DEAR MR CHEGGERS,

THIS EMAILS MAY COME YOU AS SURPRISE. MY NAME IS DOCTOR SCOT SKIER AND I AM SENIOR MANAGER OF BANK OF MWEMBEKO PROVICE. RECENTLY, ONE VERY IMPORTANT CLIENT DIED LEAVING $1000 000 000 (ONE BILLION UNITED STATES DOLLARS) OF SNOW IN ACCOUNT WITH NO BENEFICIARY. I AM SEEKING TRUSTWORTHY PERSONS TO FACILITATE TRANSACTION OF THIS SNOW FOR INVESTMENT IN OVERSEAS AREA....

Edit. The best one I ever had was from the Microsoft International e-mail Lottery. Told me I had won 5 million USD. I was totally taken in until I noticed that they were also throwing in a brand new i-pad. Then I thought, 'Hey, wait a minute'.... :lol:

Keith Cheggers

Netweather IT Services.

Scotland

Thank you for your offer, I am very interested in your proposition as I am always looking for further snow opportunities.........

Some corkers here.. http://www.419eater....tml/letters.htm

Latest comes straight from the FBI!!!!! (As if)

Edited January 21, 2012 by Cheggers

[blitzen]

. I think the negatively tilted low is the one we are after here.

You're a star Lorenzo! So much easier when I know what to look for!

[lorenzo]

http://www.419eater.com/

Some of the stories are hilarous.

This remains my favourite

http://419eater.com/html/joe_eboh.htm

One guy got the full tat done ! Fail. This is comedy gold..

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Anyone up there seeing the northern lights?

Apparently could be visible even for southern parts of England tonight so well worth checking the skies for you in Scotland.

[Cheggers]

Anyone up there seeing the northern lights?

Apparently could be visible even for southern parts of England tonight so well worth checking the skies for you in Scotland.

Rear garden facing due north, and skies are clear, but not seeing anything yet?

[edo]

http://www.419eater.com/

Some of the stories are hilarous.

This remains my favourite

http://419eater.com/html/joe_eboh.htm

Superb SS I am bookmarking that

Lorenzo I can't tell you how much help it is when you circle areas of charts to explain them #teachingguru

[Hairy Celt]

Anyone up there seeing the northern lights?

Apparently could be visible even for southern parts of England tonight so well worth checking the skies for you in Scotland.

Nuffink except funny multi-cloured splodges keep wibblingses fairsquarely up nebusisery dimminksmer. Drugs warehouse'd we be withowt em.

And one from yesterday...

and another...

Edited January 22, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[howham]

Rear garden facing due north, and skies are clear, but not seeing anything yet?

Nice clear skies but I can't see any aurora...

[Cheggers]

Nice clear skies but I can't see any aurora...

Yanks grounded it again...