Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[over_the_rainbow]

Congrats edodfc on your forthcoming new addition! Makes me feel all broody, babies are just wonderful!

Yes quite windy today (ooh de ja vu there)......but the sun is out.

I see the ECM is the champ this morning offering a route to a more prolonged colder spell, but the GFS has backtracked a bit........the dance continues.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I see the ECM is the champ this morning offering a route to a more prolonged colder spell, but the GFS has backtracked a bit........the dance continues.

The GFS op is somewhat on the mild side of the members - which show a modest downward trend into Feb - so I wouldn't stress to much about that. That's the thing about these set-ups, slight changes in positioning make a huge difference, hence the forecasting 'will it / won't it' problem right now. Patience is required. As are sacrificial offerings to Ullr/Ular. Or maybe Glacius? http://glaciusequus....om/glacius.html

Edited January 21, 2012 by scottish skier

[lorenzo]

ECM playing the cold game this morning, will be interesting to see what the GFS has in store for us later. !! Will it be cold or will it be more 'Winter Is NEVER Arriving !!!' ... knowing GFS I have a fair idea especially around the 192 mark when a Zonal machine is plugged in,still it has the block to factor in now, could be a spanner in it's works.

The Russian high is a monster and is good to watch as it bashes West, chart below pick of the bunch from the ECM, continental feed of cold continuing the trend.

The mighty Boris the Block.

[Big Innes Madori]

4.2 from 8.8 at midnight here with winds coming from SW gusting 30 knots.....dry now though and 8th snowless weekend of the winter.....c'mon snaw get it sorted.....hope the kids looking forward to an afternoon with Jeff Stelling

OK Edo,

It's the back o' 10 am, been up a' night, think ahv got it

Is the answer 4.6

Not too bad weather here this morning, Dry, Some Sunshine and not too WINDY at the moment.

I see the MT has the usual "it's on" "no it's off" theme to it with regards to a Beast from the East

Big Innes

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=fluxes&alert=1&lng=eng

Just thought I'd share this with you - EP flux is go! That's one worry out of the way at least. The other from a strat perspective is whereabouts the vortex would try to set up. These are computed by yesterday's ECM http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=f240&lng=eng

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf100f240.gif

It looks at the moment to be trying to set up over Scandinavia. What's over Scandinavia at the moment? That monster high posted! IF we can get the initial easterly set up, then retrogression to Greenland could end up being the main event as the PV drops to our east. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2009/archives-2009-12-13-0-0.png

We know what happened next!

[Hairy Celt]

http://wekuw.met.fu-...alert=1&lng=eng

Just thought I'd share this with you - EP flux is go! That's one worry out of the way at least. The other from a strat perspective is whereabouts the vortex would try to set up. These are computed by yesterday's ECM http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f240&lng=eng

http://wekuw.met.fu-...cmwf100f240.gif

It looks at the moment to be trying to set up over Scandinavia. What's over Scandinavia at the moment? That monster high posted! IF we can get the initial easterly set up, then retrogression to Greenland could end up being the main event as the PV drops to our east. http://modeles.meteo...9-12-13-0-0.png

We know what happened next!

Edited January 21, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

It looks at the moment to be trying to set up over Scandinavia. What's over Scandinavia at the moment? That monster high posted! IF we can get the initial easterly set up, then retrogression to Greenland could end up being the main event as the PV drops to our east. http://modeles.meteo...9-12-13-0-0.png

We know what happened next!

[lorenzo]

Chiono must be working today, look forward to the update later in the Strat thread.Here are a couple of longer view charts that show the temperature trend.

October - December and we all know where the wretched vortex camped itself

Then eventually it gets nuked, this second wave looking stronger.

Thankfully it finds a new home..

For how that plays out check the strat thread later to see if it is Jam tomorrow or Jam much sooner !

The consternation in the model thread is around the Azores High and whether it will back west or continue to be a pain in the proverbials.. one things for sure February has signals for being a whole lot colder than where we have been these last 8-10 weeks..

[Argyllcraig]

Weird weather set up.... I hear the dog sled races at Aviemore are actually on snow this year through the forest and in the same breath Glencoe ski resort has just recorded a 111mph wind speed this morning and are currently stormbound by snow and wind.

[Cheggers]

I can say one thing, the Atlantic is not giving up without a fight. Gale force winds and very raw outside. Not sure but temp maybe 5C, outside sensor finally succumbed to the windy onslaught.

5C now, bit breezy. If anyone's thinking of getting snipped, pm me.

Unable to PM

[lorenzo]

Agree Cheggers having been out for a wander it is bitter, biting cold wind, freezing rain. Not pleasant today, definitely a day for being inside!

[Cheggers]

Strathallan just hit 66mph and winds still to peak later today I think. If we get any more winds the Central Belt will start to look like Shetland!

[edo]

Congrats edodfc on your forthcoming new addition! Makes me feel all broody, babies are just wonderful!

thankyou i will remember that when its 2am and baby not ettling..will give u a call for babysitting duties...

OK Edo,

It's the back o' 10 am, been up a' night, think ahv got it

Is the answer 4.6

lol well done big man your clearly a machine being up all nite and still getting that right

LS stop teasing with auld charts..... great info as usual

[Hairy Celt]

Had the stove on this morning and it's just been blowing smoke out into the room which is a very rare happening. A foul day, not even Ms HC is splitting firewood today. :blink:

[BleakMidwinter]

Blustery and grey here with a couple of very heavy splatty rain spells. "Raw" is the right word indeed.

I nipped out earlier between showers and have now realised I need to nip back out again or inadvertently give up smoking. Bugger. Time to encase myself in the output of quite a few sheep. How many jumpers can one girl wear? (that's a rhetorical question, I know the answer is "seven and still move arms")

If anyone's driving through south Embra and sees a spherical woolly bundle being rolled down the street by the tempestuous winds, gonna pick me up and set me back on my feet again please!

[edo]

5.8 here and now gusting 40 knots with horizontal rain....reconsidering my 4pm cycle

[snowy owl]

Just about took off when out in the wind whilst holding two big parcels bound for the Post Office. One jumper and one down filled long coat and 1 wooly hat was perhaps good but the wind still cut through you!!

Charts are looking oh so nearly there - keeping everything crossed that the + signals continue - i can't stand this suspense.

[blitzen]

Gawd I'm bored! Hubby out in the shed playing choo choos and I am scanning Netweather for any signs of some cold/snow/excitement! Oh dear, I need to get a life! Very gusty and showery here today. Temps stuck at 5.6c and last wind gust approaching 40mph. Have to say I am not overly confident of all this panning out the way we want it to. Sods law this year I think. I knew I shoudn't have bought that bl**dy snowblower!

[thebigyin]

Chiono must be working today, look forward to the update later in the Strat thread.Here are a couple of longer view charts that show the temperature trend.

October - December and we all know where the wretched vortex camped itself

Then eventually it gets nuked, this second wave looking stronger.

Thankfully it finds a new home..

For how that plays out check the strat thread later to see if it is Jam tomorrow or Jam much sooner !

The consternation in the model thread is around the Azores High and whether it will back west or continue to be a pain in the proverbials.. one things for sure February has signals for being a whole lot colder than where we have been these last 8-10 weeks..

Read this post. Been out for a walk and pondered it, back in and re-read and still I don't understand it!! Anyway, I do understand your last paragraph at least so good things are potentially lookign colder for february.

Is anyone else having problems logging in on a mobile?

[Norrance]

Thermometer showing 5.3C here.

Just back from walking the dug up in the Sidlaws.

There, with exposure to the wind and a few blustery showers blowing through it sure felt a lot colder than that.

[lorenzo]

Read this post. Been out for a walk and pondered it, back in and re-read and still I don't understand it!! Anyway, I do understand your last paragraph at least so good things are potentially lookign colder for february.

Is anyone else having problems logging in on a mobile?

The first chart shows a very cold Polar Vortex entrenched for the first half of winter, the second shows the successive warnings disrupting the Vortex. These warmings causing it to depart it's usual Greenland home as it is split into different pieces. This in turn favours a more blocky outlook. Have a look at the Stratosphere thread Big Yin- link on signature..

Speaking of which nosebleed heights 1065mb from Boris on the 12z...

[edo]

Went for the cycle and a telephone boxin stupid decision that was....aborted after 30 mins having been blown off and side of my face numb from the wind....must buy a balaclava

Mobile working fine for me bigyin maybe dip yer moby in some Of big innes's midori

4 degrees now and a maximum gust of 54 knots

[Northernlights]

Miserable day heavy rain and sleet showers strong west wind and ground absolutely saturated. Made it to 4c currently 3c. Grass nearly finished or slow growing in all fields so bringing sheep home from furthest fields to one near steading so we can start feeding them hay and turnips next week.Just in time for a change in the weather?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Even before the vaunted easterly widespread sub -5C uppers are going to be present across Scotland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm482.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

That last chart especially looks quite interesting. Anyway, looking fine so far for the easterly http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012012112/ECH1-144.GIF?21-0

[Northern Strath]

^{Aye, raw, cold and pretty wild outside today with showers of snow, sleet and rain blowing everywhere. Snow cover took a battering through the night, now only patches left. Hope we see it return soon. 3C}