Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

3.4 here now.... looking like may just see something wintry tomorrow or Friday if it sneaks through...suspect those with a bit of altiude centrally may actually do fairly well with strong uppers even hitting the heady heights of -7 ...but then temps rise briskly on Friday night for a bit before falling away again and leaving a chilly and potentially snowy saturday for many....as ever though on a knife edge

Awfy quiet. Folks a little nervous? Will it, won't it.... :unsure:

Meto are playing with your minds with that LRF. Muuuhahaha!

Anyhoo...

Aperitif?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well the Met Office (on the beta site at least) are being pretty bullish about snowfall now for much of Scotland tomorrow night http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/beta/weather/forecast/?tab=map

Temperatures widely 0-2C. Bearing in mind that thes forecasts are based on the more powerful 36 hour version of the unified model that has a resolution of a kilometre and will be released for public viewing on Monday, I think these are at least as valid at this stage as the NAE and NMM output, particularly the precipitation and temperature map. By Thursday at 9pm it looks cold enough for snow everywhere barring the far north and southwest http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/18/basis12/ukuk/t925/12011921_1812.gif

Cold uppers in place http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/18/basis12/ukuk/t850/12011921_1812.gif

Now check the beta - very hefty precipitation around widely through tomorrow evening. This could turn out to be the first real snowfall of the winter for many in the east central area if we can build up a few decent showers and the uppers stay as currently progged. Potential for 10-15cm away from coasts and particularly with a bit of elevaton, but anywhere/everywhere could end up with a dusting of snow.

[Big Innes Madori]

Awfy quiet. Folks a little nervous? Will it, won't it.... :unsure:

Meto are playing with your minds with that LRF. Muuuhahaha!

Anyhoo...

Aperitif?

How aboot this per SS :lol:

Big Innes

[howham]

My average temp so far this month is 3.70C so on the way down. Hoping for snow tomorrow!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

My average temp so far this month is 3.70C so on the way down. Hoping for snow tomorrow!!

I reckon that the only way as far as the January mean temperature goes for Scotland - the last 13 days will undoubtedly be at least somewhat colder than the first 18.

[Polar Side]

Well the Met Office (on the beta site at least) are being pretty bullish about snowfall now for much of Scotland tomorrow night http://www.metoffice...recast/?tab=map

Temperatures widely 0-2C. Bearing in mind that thes forecasts are based on the more powerful 36 hour version of the unified model that has a resolution of a kilometre and will be released for public viewing on Monday, I think these are at least as valid at this stage as the NAE and NMM output, particularly the precipitation and temperature map. By Thursday at 9pm it looks cold enough for snow everywhere barring the far north and southwest http://expert-images...011921_1812.gif

Cold uppers in place http://expert-images...011921_1812.gif

Now check the beta - very hefty precipitation around widely through tomorrow evening. This could turn out to be the first real snowfall of the winter for many in the east central area if we can build up a few decent showers and the uppers stay as currently progged. Potential for 10-15cm away from coasts and particularly with a bit of elevaton, but anywhere/everywhere could end up with a dusting of snow.

Looks interesting tomorrow LS.

GP still sounds confident of the cold pattern developing but I wonder when the Operational runs will start showing this.

Edited January 18, 2012 by Polar Side

[howham]

I reckon that the only way as far as the January mean temperature goes for Scotland - the last 13 days will undoubtedly be at least somewhat colder than the first 18.

If that is the case I could end up with both Dec AND Jan coming in below average.

[edo]

Lol SS yes seems to be some kind of mind**** this winter from models and met office....more sww than u can shake a stick at but not much severe happening apart from wind and FI in models becoming what now seems like T48....precipitation seeming to increase with each run though so fingers crossed....when I discovered this thread late nov it was very busy a pity only like that when widespread snow potential as the laughs in here have certainly been wide an varied....im having a busy night...there are women screaming on tv as wife watches one every minute and I don't need reminded of that messy childbirth scene on my tv screen thanks....meanwhile watching el Classico on iPhone and watching the weather on laptop.... #multitasking

[Cheggers]

having a busy night...there are women screaming on tv as wife watches one every minute and I don't need reminded of that messy childbirth scene on my tv screen thanks....meanwhile watching el Classico on iPhone and watching the weather on laptop.... #multitasking

Must be a mirror image.....

Wet and windy when I left work at 7ish temp had dropped to 3c

[LomondSnowstorm]

If that is the case I could end up with both Dec AND Jan coming in below average.

Indeed, as could Scotland as a whole perhaps. Out of interest, what is your January average temperature?

[Hairy Celt]

1C now as the sky clears, ice forming everywhere, which seems a bit odd as NMM has me at 4C.

[LomondSnowstorm]

1C now as the sky clears, ice forming everywhere, which seems a bit odd as NMM has me at 4C.

That Met Office beta site has the Black Isle widely at about 3C, though dropping to 1-2C by 2am. The MO also suggests that temperatures will be around 4-5C around Strathclyde, 2-3C across the central belt towards Edinburgh and all of the Fife, Perth and Tayside area below 2C. I'm taking note of this to see which out of the Met Office models/ the NMM are best at mesoscale level. If the Met Office wins the day tomorrow the snowstarved east central region could be in for a treat. Hopefully we'll get to play around with these toys further in weeks to come...

[edo]

Here's hoping LS my baby sledge needs test driven....I also need to get some sleep

[andy100]

just started snowing here

[howham]

Just had a snow shower. Ground is white!!

[Cheggers]

Clear skies here just now, but biting cold in the breeze. 1C

[Poots]

Currently 3.7c here, wet, dark and miserable. Wonder if we might even see a bit of sleet in with the rain today.......

[Kerwin]

snowing in Aberdeen just now :-)

[Zerouali lives]

Just had a 10 minute snow shower in Westhill - just west of Aberdeen (110m), lying in places.

[Hairy Celt]

0C, frozen slush on exposed surfaces. NMM gives me a 2.2C now - if there's 2C error all day, we're in for a treat / pasting, otherwise it'll be wet wet wet...

[BleakMidwinter]

Blue skies, sunny, and xc tells me 4C here just now... that's me with my nose pressed up against the snaw-windae looking on wistfully at the rest of Scotland...

Have a great time, those of you who get snow - and let's hope all of your bosses phone tomorrow early to say not to come in, and you all get a Snow Day Friday Off to go out and play in the snow with kids, dogs, sledges, cameras and Uncle Jack Frost an' all!

[edo]

beautiful clear morning and very dry sitting at 0.7 but not feeling overly chilly....dewpoint and wet bulb both negative....uppers should be ok....all i need is precipitation...Radar says no but maybe a brief flirtation at 9.40

[Cheggers]

Radar showing some beefy showers approaching the Western Isles. I think it is going to be lunch time before we see anything of note here.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Lol SS yes seems to be some kind of mind**** this winter from models and met office....

Aye, the meto LRF is like "Well, it's going to be like the best winter ever, with endless days of snow intermingled with clear, sunny and frosty days. Or, it's going to be be same old dreich sh*ite as usual. More'n likely the latter. Ha ha".

FI starting well early on ensembles; strong scatter amoung members starting only 4 days out.... Jeez.

[Northernlights]

Nice winters morning here with blue skies, wintry showers to the west and a sprinkling of sparkling snow on the ground which fell about 7.00am. Currently 0c. Ice forming on any open water on the ground near buildings.