Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[snowlover2009]

Ice days possible in a few spots by Sunday? Certainly temperatures will be the coldest feeling of the whole winter, considering the airmass direction etc if 18z verifies. Certainly looks like many parts won't be rising above 4c. Just the fact it will be below average is brilliant!!!

[ITSY]

obviously FI but excuse me while I ramp this up to the extreme: I'm a young un (and was away throughout last winter) and this has to be one of the best runs I have ever seen! haha, as if.

[Tom Montalbano]

last excitable one from me-

imagine the towers across the channel with these dewpoints & cold air feeding across the channel-

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn28810.png

S

Hi Steve,

a la Feb 09. Remember the thunder with snow we heard that night and the BBC report from Dartford!

Regards,

Tom

[SP1986]

I'd be very surprised if the GFS 18z wasn't an outlier in terms of how long it tries to suggest the cold lasts for in FI, and if not, then by very least the one of the longest lasting cold ensembles. I expect to see a split on the ensembles again with the majority going for a more mobile situation, and again a cluster of very cold ensembles, but in the minority.

[snowlover2009]

Does anyone else think it is absolutely festering amazing how europe has been in uppers of 0 to 5 for many months and just a week later, it could be bathing in uppers of -10 and possibly colder as time gos on?

[Jason T]

614 veiwing not surprising with eye candy like this. Bring it on.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just before i leave i want to illustrate what i meant when i was discussing the changes from the 12z to 18z. Because some comments were quite demeaning.

12z @ T84

18z @ T84

You can see the differences here that unfortunately move the 18z GFS towards the UKM and ECM 12z.

Comparing the two charts.

The 12z show the aligned of the Low in the Atlantic in a more favourable SE to NW slant compared to the 18z show a more SW to NE slant.

Also on the 12z heights are higher into southeast Greenland compared to the 18z GFS.

Goodnight and lets hope the 18z FI is right

Matt

I know what you are trying to say BUT the difference at that point is minor and uncontrolling......the alignment was not that important as it was still developing AND there is no SW sent out towards Svalbard which allows heights towards NE to build.

BFTP

[Jason M]

The north sea would be a turbo snow machine! more of these charts please

Completely agree. Once uppers get below -10C there is only ever one outcome with an easterly. Probably gone before morning but great way to end the day. Only trouble is that things can only downgrade from here. The pub run is showing a once in twenty year event and i'm sure theres a message in that somewhere. Would be fun though, wouldnt it!

[BARRY]

Well lets not get to excited having watched the charts for 6 years there is good signs of a change, but lets see what the 18z brings tomorrow,if the signs are still there then good and if it is still showing on Friday i will buy some rock salt.

[snowlover2009]

GFS just keeps getting better and better! BEAST!

BEST chart of the winter!!!!!!

It is so cold, the uppers to the west of the UK nearly join together!

[Jason H]

Does anyone else think it is absolutely festering amazing how europe has been in uppers of 0 to 5 for many months and just a week later, it could be bathing in uppers of -10 and possibly colder as time gos on?

Not at all. That's the continental climate for you. That little strip of water between Dover and Calais makes all the difference.

[ITSY]

when do the ensembles come out?

[FreezeManiac]

I don't care if this doesn't come off, I just love the fact that GFS is showing what it is showing!

[Frosty.]

Looking at T180 at this stage is abit futile!

Over 580 on here don't think it's futile, this 18z has turned into an epic with the kind of bitterly cold siberian blast which is the perfect end for all us cold weather fans who are now desperate for a freeze, now we will all do it again tomorrow won't we..

[feb1991blizzard]

I'd be very surprised if the GFS 18z wasn't an outlier in terms of how long it tries to suggest the cold lasts for in FI, and if not, then by very least the one of the longest lasting cold ensembles. I expect to see a split on the ensembles again with the majority going for a more mobile situation, and again a cluster of very cold ensembles, but in the minority.

As magical as the 18z GFS is, in all honesty that is very realistic analysis, i would just settle for 1 more GEFS member trending near -10 850hpa on every run at this stage and if we were to have a 50/50 split by a couple of days time i would be over the moon.

[weatherguy]

Still not even close to perfect, whilst very good compared to what we've had, you should have seen some of the beastly runs we've had in the 09-10 winter and December 2010, this would be on the milder side of the ensembles!!

Talking of ensembles, they are coming out now...

Oh I was here during 2010, so probably an overreaction from me, just such a stark contrast from what we've had I almost had a heart attack! Plus, it's the first tangible easterly I've been able to experience modelled on here (as I wasn't on here during Feb 2009 unfortunately)...

[snowingman]

.... never going to happen - this is way out at plus 10 days! unlikely - zonal pattern set to reestablish itself again post 7 days! one run only and we are all on happy pills -

[Polar Gael]

The pub run appears to have found a TARDIS and has landed back in a 1980s winter. It's coldies' chart porn this evening, especially as it moves into low res (which would deliver the white stuff bigtime), but...ECM still not on board at this stage. However, it's noteworthy how quickly the shift to real cold takes place on this run. Pre the 2008-9 winter, I would have been massively sceptical. Now, not so much.

Change is on the way. May take a few knocks on the door but it looks like the cold is coming. Kudos to GP, RJS and others who may well have called it right.

Will likely be gone by the morning, but for cold synoptics, one has to savour this. http://nwstatic.co.u.../h850t850eu.png

Edited January 9, 2012 by Polar Gael

[weatherguy]

.... never going to happen - this is way out at plus 10 days! unlikely - zonal pattern set to reestablish itself again post 7 days! one run only and we are all on happy pills -

It's not FI that's the problem though, the events that lead to the FI scenario occur in the very short term. If those synoptics occur, there's simply nowhere else for all that cold to go

We do of course need some cross model agreement, but that's a different issue from it being "too far out".

[NickR]

The pub run appears to have found a TARDIS and has landed back in a 1980s winter. It's coldies' chart porn this evening, especially as it moves into low res (which would deliver the white stuff bigtime), but...ECM still not on board at this stage. Hwever, it's noteworthy how quickly the shift to real cold takes place on this run. Pre the 2008-9 winter, I would have been massively sceptical. Now, not so much.

Change is on the way. May take a few knocks on the door but it looks like the cold is coming. Kudos to GP, RJS and others who may well have called it right.

Will likely be gone by the morning, but for cold synoptics, one has to savour this. http://nwstatic.co.u.../h850t850eu.png

What a great chart for my son's 1st b'day!

[devon lad]

It is so cold, the uppers to the west of the UK nearly join together!

Unlikely to be as bad as that suggests whatever happens. However ...... good to see some wintry weather in the forcast. Those clever folk who forcast that the weather wouldn't change in mid January may have got it right.

Edited January 9, 2012 by devon lad

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

THe modelling of the Artic high maywell be one of the more important factors here.

It does look like a strong pulse of energy is hitting the ridging Azores high(around 120hrs ) but if we get enough disruption to the flow then the window maywell exist for the high to deflect the lows southeast and the scandy high to become a player.

Our hope is the 18z has the correc handle on this but obviously its a suck it and see situation .

Morning runs will be viewed from behind the sofa!!

[Polar Gael]

What a great chart for my son's 1st b'day!

It's a fab chart. Here's hoping something even remotely similar happens when the time comes. Personally, I'd bank this one for my "answer to life, the universe & everything" birthday on the Saturday. http://nwstatic.co.u.../h850t850eu.png Ice day: yes please.

Edited January 9, 2012 by Polar Gael

[ITSY]

if anyone could post the ensemble graph(s) that would be fantastic! good night all!

[Jayces]

7 days of continues snow on the percip forecast from the 18th to the end of the run, yeah right if only ;-)

I noticed earlier someone commented about the people at Hedley (I think) changing the Meto 32 day outlook twice today and I think it got lost in some confusion in the thread.

What they were trying to say is that there was an update around 11 am on the 16 - 32 day outlook which had no mention of cold but then it was updated at around 15:00 with a more positive outlook regarding cold.

I haven't noticed if it's been changed twice in a day before, is that normal for the Meto?

It certainly shows they are unsure but at least it's positive that they are now mentioning cold in the 16 - 32 day outlook.

It's good to see excitement here again, still another week or so of model watching though before we know the details.