Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[kold weather]

I'm opening up this thread a little early just in case the 18z GFS turns out to be a stella run. Very long way to go with this one folks, so I'd like to remind people to stay calm and think before you post. The team are watching very closely at these sorts of times!

[SMU]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

15 days out-

I will have a C please bob...

Q: what C has a 7 day cold spell with maxes of -4c...?

S

[dixonoid]

Stella runs !! Hope the current modelling goes in the right direction, been a lot of flip flopping recently, but now things are into the reliable time frame, if it can be called this, so here is to the pub run (18z)! And hopefully a nice easterly to end January!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

what is a stella run? is that everyone going to the beer shop?

Its a run that is absolutely fantastic regarding cold and snow at this time of the year. Tonights ECM wasn't far short of one if you ask me.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Cloud 10]

ECM long range ensembles are out,and show the usual chaos when a possible easterly shows up.

Nice to see the control run where it is though!

lol@ SM :lol:

Edited January 7, 2012 by Cloud 10

[JP1972]

I'm opening up this thread a little early just in case the 18z GFS turns out to be a stella run. Very long way to go with this one folks, so I'd like to remind people to stay calm and think before you post. The team are watching very closely at these sorts of times!

Oh dear. Never have 21 words been more likely to put the mockers on things Goddammit!!!

But wise words thereafter, the potential is there but level heads required right now.

If the models can flip so favourably so quickly, the same could be said of the other way round.

[cyclonic happiness]

ECM long range ensembles are out,and show the usual chaos when a possible easterly shows up.

Nice to see the control run where it is though!

lol@ SM :lol:

Be better if it fell off the bottom of the page though

So going by the lastest output, we may be looking at the cooldown starting next friday and to be sub-zero by tuesday week?

(ifs and buts)

[kold weather]

Esnembles on the ECM aren't overly keen it has to be said, but I think at the moment the models are playing catch-up with the warmings that are forecasted to keep developing, and they are going to have an effect at some point you'd think.

[ribster]

I have some photos dated around the 16th/17th Jan 1987 of the snowfest we got, the charts tonight (particularly the ECM) for those dates rather remind me of those days!! Don't know what the charts looked like around that time, although I guess the dates would be slightly earlier as there was already significant snow depth by the 17th.

[ITSY]

For me, everything would have to be within 168 for outputs to truly represent a Stella run! Still, things must begin somewhere and I await with interest the pub runs and the overnight ECM! Not alarm worthy yet by any means though!

[shotski]

I have some photos dated around the 16th/17th Jan 1987 of the snowfest we got, the charts tonight (particularly the ECM) for those dates rather remind me of those days!! Don't know what the charts looked like around that time, although I guess the dates would be slightly earlier as there was already significant snow depth by the 17th.

Here we go

[kold weather]

Oh dear. Never have 21 words been more likely to put the mockers on things Goddammit!!!

But wise words thereafter, the potential is there but level heads required right now.

If the models can flip so favourably so quickly, the same could be said of the other way round.

Yes I've seen it quite a few times in the past. I suspect we are going to get increasing amounts of northern blocking in the enxt few weeks, it just depends on whether it falls favourably for us or not. Sometimes it does, other times it doesn't.

[Backtrack]

I'm opening up this thread a little early just in case the 18z GFS turns out to be a stella run. Very long way to go with this one folks, so I'd like to remind people to stay calm and think before you post. The team are watching very closely at these sorts of times!

It's also worth noting that the GFS has fallen well in line with its ensembles now. There's a definite cooling trend going on now in the models. Just how cool remains to be seen. Can't really see anything too severe just yet with fairly average upper air temperatures. But that being said, the models are still getting to grips with the pattern change, and it's likely to upgrade IMO.

So there as you can see the op run is in line with its ensembles for most of the run, with the control run perhaps trending slightly out of pattern at times suggesting it may be a cold outlier in the latter parts of the run.

Interesting times to say the least. Just need to wait a little longer for that super warming of the stratosphere, wait out the lag time for it to actually effect what happens in the troposphere and we COULD be golden for some decent shots of cold.

I think the question is, where will the cold originate from? We have some cold pooling beginning to take place over Europe now, with some ensembles, and even the ECM suggesting we could see Easterly winds at times. The GFS mostly suggesting shots from the West or North West.

Eagerly awaiting the next model update.

[SnowObsessor90]

Have a feeling the 18z could be a bad one myself, It would just be typical of the way this winters gone so far

Edited January 7, 2012 by Anonymous21

[bluearmy]

I have some photos dated around the 16th/17th Jan 1987 of the snowfest we got, the charts tonight (particularly the ECM) for those dates rather remind me of those days!! Don't know what the charts looked like around that time, although I guess the dates would be slightly earlier as there was already significant snow depth by the 17th.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=5&month=1&hour=0&year=1987&map=4&mode=2

follow the run and see that it was several shortwaves in just the right place at the right time that advected the deep cold over us. i doubt you'll see a run of charts quite like that again.

[nick sussex]

I hope people won't be too disappointed if this possible easterly doesn't come off, its just appeared today and there is a history of these turning into a complete nerve shredding experience for many of the members here.

These are often the most complicated synoptics for the models to cope with and although sometimes the rewards in terms of snow and cold can be good they are all different in nature.

To get good snow off an easterly that just doesn't cling to eastern coasts you need very cold uppers and a strong flow, for this reason even tonights ECM needs a good correction westwards.

It's a start and of course given the winter as a whole is very welcome to see even these synoptics but for newer members please take my advise, never count on an easterly until within 96hrs.

[January Snowstorm]

It's a start and of course given the winter as a whole is very welcome to see even these synoptics but for newer members please take my advise, never count on an easterly until within 96hrs.

Shouldn't that be 6hrs Nick lol ?

Edited January 7, 2012 by January Snowstorm

[Stu_London]

not even sure its even an Easterly at 240

more like a southerly

have to agree with Ian at this stage - as things stand to much energy to the west

[Backtrack]

I hope people won't be too disappointed if this possible easterly doesn't come off, its just appeared today and there is a history of these turning into a complete nerve shredding experience for many of the members here.

These are often the most complicated synoptics for the models to cope with and although sometimes the rewards in terms of snow and cold can be good they are all different in nature.

To get good snow off an easterly that just doesn't cling to eastern coasts you need very cold uppers and a strong flow, for this reason even tonights ECM needs a good correction westwards.

It's a start and of course given the winter as a whole is very welcome to see even these synoptics but for newer members please take my advise, never count on an easterly until within 96hrs.

If we see some decent agreement from the 18z which is rolling out now, then the chances of it verifying have just increased dramatically.

[kold weather]

not even sure its even an Easterly at 240

more like a southerly

Wow really...thats an easterly mate, not a strong one and we are on the far western flank, but for sure we are under a easterly flow...though Scotland would have a close call.

Will have to wait and see as to your second point...I'm getting the distinct feeling that even if this one doesn't come off...its only stemming the tide before the next major warming event in the Stratosphere.

My gut is that its still a touch too soon for some of the solutions we are seeing, but I think things will be getting colder more consistantly from now on.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well that will teach me for binning half of Jan!!

On a serious note im not getting remotely excited at what is at this stage a major cold outlier from the ECM,ive bought the tea shirt and recycled it 50times over.

Lets see how the next few days pan out personally i think there is to much energy to the west for old blighty to see a cold attack but i have a feeling Eastern Europe is in for a major freeze which is nice as they too have had a very mild winter.

[Matty M]

18z will probably be a stinker now but even if it is, we still got a trend.

The fact that the 12z GFS OP+Control and ECM OP+Control are going in the right direction is a huge plus.

Even if the 18z showed a perfect easterly blast it doesnt mean much just like it doesnt mean much if it shows nothing,

[Jason M]

18z will probably be a stinker now but even if it is, we still got a trend.

The fact that the 12z GFS OP+Control and ECM OP+Control are going in the right direction is a huge plus.

Even if the 18z showed a perfect easterly blast it doesnt mean much just like it doesnt mean much if it shows nothing,

Completely agree. Tbh is just nice to have something interesting to look at probably for the first time in months

Jason

[SMU]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/runs/gfsnh-2012010718-0-102.png?18

Better amplification at 102 already- should throw the system further west in greenland- More amplification = a sharper trough also through Europe when it happens..

a good start

S

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Posted Today, 20:01

the top chart- Zonal Wind 1HPA 60N is excellent as its going to batter the PV-

the superwarming could = Feb 86

S

Post by Big Steve Murr which caught my eye. If GP is correct then this is what I believe is possible...Feb 86. If RJS is correct then Jan 87 springs to mind.....if there is a blend then we have Jeb 86 1/2... :smilz38:

I posted beginning of the week that come the weekend that the models will be chomping at the bit to show cold setup, round 1 starts and we under starters orders. Also its look NE not NW to start? Sudden turnaround? or not?

BFTP