Model Discussion January 18th

[Zakos]

GP is not a weather god Geoff! He has fantastic scientific knowledge on the subject, however forecasting is a totally different ball game as was indicated in his summer forecast. Currently there is very little sign that the winter forcast for Febuary will be accurate either, bar a line in the Met forecast which may well dissapear by lunchtime.

Disagree completely. How can you bring up the summer forecast, when hes been spot on so far this winter? The pattern change HAS occured despite what anyone thinks. The AO has negative, the NAO should follow.also your anaylsis of Febraury completely defies logic. You claim that we are going to be stuck between the russian high and the atlantic, giving mild sourherlies. Perfectly plausible scenario. But a small change could see us in raging easterlies. This makes absolutely no sense how can rubbish this possibilty. Your interpretation is also incorrect. The met have made it abundantly clear that there is a serious risk of much colder weather. Its not one line,its half of the damn paragraph. Edited January 19, 2012 by Zakos

[weathe20]

Nothing too much to talk about from the output today (as per the number of posts), nothing cold on the horizon it seems. Lots of talk about background signals, this seems to be only thing some people are holding onto. These background signals dont mean definate cold for the UK, but when will these background signals start to show in the models. Some may disagree but if your wanting prolonged spell of cold weather this winter time is starting to run out.

[geoffw]

Nothing too much to talk about from the output today (as per the number of posts), nothing cold on the horizon it seems. Lots of talk about background signals, this seems to be only thing some people are holding onto. These background signals dont mean definate cold for the UK, but when will these background signals start to show in the models. Some may disagree but if your wanting prolonged spell of cold weather this winter time is starting to run out.

and we should all believe you? your not an expert, i would much rather listen to GP, at least he knows what hes talking about and doesnt suffer mood swings!!!

[john mac]

GP is not a weather god Geoff! He has fantastic scientific knowledge on the subject, however forecasting is a totally different ball game as was indicated in his summer forecast. Currently there is very little sign that the winter forcast for Febuary will be accurate either, bar a line in the Met forecast which may well dissapear by lunchtime.

He's not a weather god, but he is exreamely confident about whats coming up and he has not changed his stance. The models have really struggled over the past week or so as they do with a pattern change. So lets not get the prozac out just yet.

[Shunter]

06z underway, interestingly the OP deflects the LP system into Western greenland at T87 introducing WAA and deflecting the Jetstream. Hope this is a developing situation as it could provide a synoptic opportunity for a colder solution for the UK and within 4 days.

[KTtom]

Anyway, back to the models!

Interesting development in the short term as the 06z trends towards the 120 fax chart and trends towords a north westerly Monday, better ridge in the Atlantic and -5 850's heading into southern England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png

[geoffw]

06z underway, interestingly the OP deflects the LP system into Western greenland at T87 introducing WAA and deflecting the Jetstream. Hope this is a developing situation as it could provide a synoptic opportunity for a colder solution for the UK and within 4 days.

illlustrates my point exactly

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Such big differences on the 06z compared to the 00z at T96, yes T96!!!, 06z has us in much colder air for Monday than the 00z, if it can't get it right at T96 there is no hope in hell at getting it right for early Feb

[Shunter]

by T96 most of the UK is under -5c 850HPA temperatures....proves that a lot can POTENTIALLY change in just a few hours.

Edited January 19, 2012 by Shunter

[TEITS]

Anyway, back to the models!

Interesting development in the short term as the 06z trends towards the 120 fax chart and trends towords a north westerly Monday, better ridge in the Atlantic and -5 850's heading into southern England.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn901.png

I did comment last night about the uncertainity even at +96 and the 06Z shows this. Yet we still have members writing off Feb based on these model runs lol.

[KTtom]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png

Just about sums up winter....UK and its very own climate

[PolarWarsaw]

Not long before the -5 uppers are back though.. t147.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120119/06/147/h850t850eu.png

[john mac]

GFS 06z at t84 much different to the 0z.

Looking much better.

[MisfitDog3]

basically, these changes just show the potential for a substantial change at fairly short notice! Nothing is set beyond Sunday....fairly extraordinary but apparently true...

[Snowman31]

this gfs looks very different, Is that low trough now moving moving SE?

[KTtom]

GFS 06z at t84 much different to the 0z.

Looking much better.

Indeed massive differences @ +168 and looks like it could go very wintry...just a shame the more knowlegeable ...thinking SM, dismiss the 06z runs!

[TEITS]

Don't know if I want to laugh or cry but the 06Z is predicting widespread snow!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120119/06/162/prectypeuktopo.png

[The Northern Ramper]

Anyway, back to the models!

Interesting development in the short term as the 06z trends towards the 120 fax chart and trends towords a north westerly Monday, better ridge in the Atlantic and -5 850's heading into southern England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png

Even more importantly ala gp's recent posts are the height rises between greenland and russia.

[Isolated Frost]

Cut-off low on the 6z output, and the temporary ne-e'ly 36hr blast is on. Widespread snow for scotland and northern england here

[john pike]

Don't know if I want to laugh or cry but the 06Z is predicting widespread snow!

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

nice to look at

[john mac]

Well the GFs 06z is a tiny bit different to the 0z So i don'y know what to think now. It will be interesting to see the ensembles later

[joggs]

May not happen but shows you the uncertainty! wait for MO update and esembles!

[Tim Bland]

WOW 06Z is a turn up for the books! Should inject some positivity into the thread today! Will probably topple though with that low pressure over greenland. If it did develop this way there is plenty of opprtunity for a reset and ridging to greenland / scandinavia though!

[UV-RAY]

More drama as the GFS now wants to bring winter back to the fold, tbh I'm completely drained by the chopping and changing at such short timescales.

[Weathizard]

An improved run still not exactly brilliant but an improvement on the 6z, lets wait to see the ensembles and hopefully the 12z will follow suit and have some improvements later.