Model Discussion January 18th

[Zakos]

Very interesting upgrade, amazing difference at 96 hours. Is the gfs op edging towards its colder ensembles perhaps?

[warrenb]

I think we are seeing the models have no idea what is going to happen to the PV when it breaks p. I don't think they will until it actually does break up.

[chionomaniac]

Agree with this.

I think that we are lining up for a cold spell in 10-15 days time starting from the east.

On the look out for signs in the FI output in the coming days now.

Sign number 1.

[Tim Bland]

GFS 06Z has the majority of the UK under a blanket of snow this time next week! FI is less exciting but the overall patern is an improvement with highs present at higher lattitudes and lower pressure to our south. Could we be headding for another rollercoaster over the next few days!

[Climate Man]

Well, I did not see that coming! Would be fun if is was not so stressful! This is the greatest period of uncertainty that I have seen and whilst it was easy at the time to laugh at the METO forecast, I can now see their point!!!

[lorenzo]

Sign number 1.

Think the Ensembles are going to through up some rampede charts today.. where is this heading ..

Edited January 19, 2012 by lorenzo

[Zakos]

The mean t850 ensemble for 192 hours is considerably better than the 00z.

[SP1986]

Alot of uncertainty around at the moment with the 6z somewhat different from the 0z, also the ECM somewhat different from the 6z in its evolution, this shows the uncertainty (rather than the impending snow storm), that resides in the model today. It will be interesting to see the ensembles but I for one am certainly not jumping in the snow-wagon just yet.

[Paul]

GFS 06Z has the majority of the UK under a blanket of snow this time next week! FI is less exciting but the overall patern is an improvement with highs present at higher lattitudes and lower pressure to our south. Could we be headding for another rollercoaster over the next few days!

Important to bear in mind that those charts are experimental & to also look at the freezing levels to see what height any snow is likely to be lying at.

[Craigers]

As GP said EXPECT the UNEXPECTED. This first immediate change on the gfs 06z run is the start for them to respond to the signals!

lets hope!

[shedhead]

Given the uncertainty everyone in here appears to accept, I really cannot see the point of post after post along the line of '06 is better', '00 is worse' etc, etc. We can all see that stringing

2 similar runs back to back beyond T+96hrs is currently beyond the capability of the big guns, so why not take an overview that things are slowly changing towards better/colder prospects,

rather than lurching from elation to depression every 6hrs?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

Morning All - after a 2 day break giving the NWP a miss I see things are still undecided today with runs like this cropping up at 160 mark ^^

Its looks nice although really we need to see where the energy alligns first- with that one ^^ its a real amplified pattern-

regards

Steve

[ITSY]

Clearly a GFS upgrade this morning - let's wait and see if it keeps it rolling into the 12Z or if it's one of 'those' runs. Certainly next week looks snowy according to op and control, ensembles anyone?

[tempestwatch]

Hi everyone, first time on. Met office just tweeted this news blog

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/

Mike

[Matty M]

Just to throw it out there, a few ECM EPS threw out the idea of a high forming to our north between Iceland and Scandanavia, but the lows were a little too far north but quite similar to the 6z GFS idea.

So it is definitely something to work on and is a new idea from the Models this morning.

[Frosty.]

We can see signs of eastern promise on the Gfs this morning in the far reaches of FI, the operational runs haven't found the right combination yet for the uk to tap into the coldest air but they are at least picking up on the signal for the blocking to the east to become stronger and begin to advance towards the uk. The 6z would bring a cold plunge southwards to all of the uk from early next week with the first widespread snow and then after a brief milder interlude, we see high pressure building across scandinavia and the much longed for pattern change. In the closer timeframe, there is still uncertainty about how far south the colder air will get this weekend, the gfs and ecm 00z show fairly average temps this weekend for the majority of the uk.

[Tim Bland]

GFS ensembles are out.... IT wasn't a cold outlier and it was a mild outlier at the end !!

Ive pasted 00z and 06z below for comparison and discussion

[ITSY]

That is extraordinary!! Those ensembles scream cold weather - perhaps the Meto 2nd scenario is starting to take hold? Again though, let's wait for the 12Z!

Edit: most also reinforce the snow next week!

Edited January 19, 2012 by ITSY

[Matty M]

By the way i will take PTB19 please!

Nice bitta snow at T144

[alex131297]

Met office have said is could go either way snow or mild, but if the snow scenario comes off then it could last into the middle of february

[lorenzo]

The pressure scatter on the ensembles shows even clearer on the Meteo chart.. unreal.

Pick your winner from that lot.

Edited January 19, 2012 by lorenzo

[Radiating Dendrite]

GFS ensembles are out.... IT wasn't a cold outlier and it was a mild outlier at the end !!

Ive pasted 00z and 06z below for comparison and discussion

Have you got them for central England, as Aberdeen is usually a fair bit colder.

Those are good ensembles though, quite a lot of support for the colder evolution!

[Southender]

GFS ensembles are out.... IT wasn't a cold outlier and it was a mild outlier at the end !!

Ive pasted 00z and 06z below for comparison and discussion

Certainly trending colder.

And if the Op wasn't going off on a mild one, the mean towards the mid/latter stages would look better also.

A positive this morning. More please.

[karyo]

The operational has more support than I expected! Still plenty of mild option but overall better looking ensembles.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Karyo

[Radiating Dendrite]

Channel Low anyone! This from the Control!

Some great charts in the ensembles too!

Edited January 19, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite