Model Discussion January 18th

[PolarWarsaw]

Agreed, not such a good run in the medium term. I think when members say it'l be best to look NE for cold. Well there's enough around.. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120119/00/141/h850t850eu.png

Staying up for the UKMO/ECM S,E?

[PolarWarsaw]

Something about this winter just doesn't want to bring cold to these shores. Notice the shield like pattern surrounding our waters.

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

AND EVEN MORE SO THERE

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120119/00/216/h850t850eu.png

Edited January 19, 2012 by Radders

[Snowy Easterly]

if its not zonal, its boring high pressure, your right maybe its not mean't to be this winter

FI is Faux cold as they call it no cold uppers to tap into

UKMO Zonal

http://www.meteociel...deles/ukmo2.php

Edited January 19, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[PolarWarsaw]

This isn't a good start to the day really. UKMO isn't great and we're stuck in a rut with the GFS. Be interesting to see what the ECM brings. If we get a noteworthy cold spell, it'l certianly be the longest path, the longest wait and the hardest slog I can remember at getting one. Patience shreddingly so.

[Snowy Easterly]

We could just end up with that boring high over us then go back to, yes you guessed it zonal

I hope GP is right a lot of people are hanging on to his views

Edited January 19, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[KTtom]

Another set of runs, and another set of charts failing to bring anything particularly wintry to the UK, possibly bar the +120 fax chart which is a little dated compared to the rest by now. GFS does toy with a continental feed at the end of the run but nothing particularly cold. With the METO outlooks split between the 2 scenario's you would have thought the odd run would show 'option 2' but no. I wonder how many will be sticking by the ECM today which at day 10 is a million miles away from anything wintry in the UK.

It'll be interesting to see how long the Met keep the second option in their outlook if the models keep their current output? Only 10 days until months end when the possible pattern change is predicted.....

Edited January 19, 2012 by KTtom

[mountain shadow]

The GFS ensembless seem to have lost any easterly options as well. Still Chino reckoned we were still 10-15 days away from the change so maybe the models are not yet picking up on the strat warming signal.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks like the models are still struggling with the signal for the Russian high to pull westwards along with the splitting of the PV. I wouldn't be too disheartened by these runs because they'll probably be completely different by the time I get back in.

[nick sussex]

Todays operational output should be packaged and sold as a cure for insomnia!

The ECM at 168hrs at least has the Russian high orientated favourably but low pressure is reluctant to send any energy se under the block, apart from that the GFS does what you don't want and ridges the Azores high to meet up with the Russian high and once that happens energy runs over the top.

The UKMO ditches even that colder blip it had on its fax chart last night at 120hrs, looking at the output theres concrete agreement for troughing sat over the UK, I won't bore everyone with the good and bad regarding tilting of that, just see my previous posts from yesterday!

If its going to deliver an end result in terms of cold then its going to be a long drawn out process , we may get there eventually but I suspect patience is wearing very thin now.

The eternal pot of gold at the end of the rainbow sums up this winter as a whole, the straw clutch team is on emergency standby waiting to see whether any of the ECM ensembles dig that trough further south at 168hrs and allow the ridge to come over the top!

[karyo]

Nothing positive to talk about on the 0z models! Even the UKMO has downgraded the cold northwesterly for early next week so the fax chart today will look less promising.

The ECM shows a worrying trend of pressure rising in the Med in its latter stages, with southwesterlies bathing the UK.

Karyo

[karyo]

If its going to deliver an end result in terms of cold then its going to be a long drawn out process , we may get there eventually but I suspect patience is wearing very thin now.

Realistically, it's time to wave goodbye to any cold chances for January. The only thing that gives me some hope for February is the CFS! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Karyo

[AWD]

Realistically, it's time to wave goodbye to any cold chances for January. The only thing that gives me some hope for February is the CFS! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monit

oring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

As a side note, those CFS charts show a cool start to summer! Lol!

But let's not go there yet!!

Edited January 19, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[nick sussex]

Realistically, it's time to wave goodbye to any cold chances for January. The only thing that gives me some hope for February is the CFS! http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif

Karyo

LOL!

Are you still wheeling those CFC charts out!

You know my thoughts on them, I suppose just one month ahead might be okay in terms of trend but that just shows average anyway.

I can see how an easterly could occur but I'm bored now! Especially as the implication is that trough will just sit there for a while spiralling around as we wait for it to find a life and then eject some energy se'wards.

Give me the ECM 168hrs about 300 miles further west with a negatively tilted trough and I might be less bored!

[karyo]

LOL!

Are you still wheeling those CFC charts out!

You know my thoughts on them, I suppose just one month ahead might be okay in terms of trend but that just shows average anyway.

I can see how an easterly could occur but I'm bored now! Especially as the implication is that trough will just sit there for a while spiralling around as we wait for it to find a life and then eject some energy se'wards.

Give me the ECM 168hrs about 300 miles further west with a negatively tilted trough and I might be less bored!

The CFS has been very good again this winter and you'll deal! lol

@ Active Weather Dude: don't look more than 2 months ahead.

Karyo

[Jason M]

This chart from the end of GFS sums up my expectations of the pattern for Feb.

http://www.meteociel...&ech=372&mode=0

I know its late FI so in itself proves nothing as TBH the changes of winning the lottery are similar to the odds of a 372 chart veryfying. That said, its a good example of how getting stuck in no mans land between a massive Scandi / Russian high and Atlantic lows can lead to a long period of southerlies.

Again, absolutely no indication of anything wintry this morning. The wait goes on........

Jason

The ensembles (GFS) are not too bad late in FI, but its all out at T30000 hours

Edited January 19, 2012 by Jason M

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensemble maps are out:

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

A few members show a little hope with a better orientation of the trough, some have this a little further to the sw, really its upto this trough now in terms of the easterly, unless you get it to send some energy se'wards at the 168hrs timeframe then its going to take much longer.

And thats if the Russian high is still orientated favourably by that point, we'll have to wait and see what happens but overall not the best starts to the day for those wanting to see a snowflake.

[IDO]

GFS cluster at T372. 55% modeling:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/enscluster/2012/01/19/basis00/euro/cslp/12020312_1900_01.gif

A picture can say a thousand words.

I think the last boat is about to sail and we have missed it big time. There is absolutely nothing cold modeled and despite the comments by some members to be patient, etc, etc, I really do now believe that Feb will be rather mild (like last year) and offer a very boring settled scenario, with all the excitement East and West.

[geoffw]

what about GP confidence??????? the models should change?

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[Zakos]

Exactly geoff. People seem to be ignoring the background signals, GP thoughts(backed up by many other netweather team members), and the met, and instead choose to write off six weeks of weather based on a single run of models, even though if they actually listened to GP they would see that ensemble mean is heading towards cold anyway.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Exactly geoff. People seem to be ignoring the background signals, GP thoughts(backed up by many other netweather team members), and the met, and instead choose to write off six weeks of weather based on a single run of models, even though if they actually listened to GP they would see that ensemble mean is heading towards cold anyway.

The ensembles are all over the place.

I hope GP is right, all of what he says may happen, but it could happen somewhere else leaving us in the mild south westerlies highlighted in the met LRF.

[Craigers]

Some time in the past 5 years we had a similar situation where the operational charts were different to the ensemble mean charts, then people given up on the idea of a good cold spell and tetis kept saying look at the ensembles and trends. Then by t72 hours the cold charts came back to life!

[KTtom]

GP is not a weather god Geoff! He has fantastic scientific knowledge on the subject, however forecasting is a totally different ball game as was indicated in his summer forecast. Currently there is very little sign that the winter forcast for Febuary will be accurate either, bar a line in the Met forecast which may well dissapear by lunchtime.

[Methuselah]

Aye, peeps. The models' operationals do sometimes get things wrong. I do stress the word 'sometimes'!

[TEITS]

GFS cluster at T372. 55% modeling:

http://expert-images...312_1900_01.gif

A picture can say a thousand words.

I think the last boat is about to sail and we have missed it big time. There is absolutely nothing cold modeled and despite the comments by some members to be patient, etc, etc, I really do now believe that Feb will be rather mild (like last year) and offer a very boring settled scenario, with all the excitement East and West.

Sometimes the ensemble mean can be very misleading. If for example you have 50% of the members showing the atlantic in control and the other 50% showing an E,ly then the ensemble mean looks like neither.

Im not as disappointed with the output as some members and still see the potential but im certainly not going to make assumptions for the whole of Feb based on the 0Z output.

Just want to add that over the last 10 days we have witnessed how much the model output can change. Why can't it change in our favour towards cold? Please don't say because it never happens because thats incorrect.

Edited January 19, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Zakos]

The ensembles are all over the place.

I hope GP is right, all of what he says may happen, but it could happen somewhere else leaving us in the mild south westerlies highlighted in the met LRF.

I am aware this is a possible scenario. I never said the cold was certain (i did say it was more likely) but how anyone can write off the rest of winter, cold or mild, is ridiculous. If people actually listened to GP, things are are a million times better than back in december. It fails me to explain how people can not see that. The ensembles are evolving favourably. I posted many days ago that the gfs was too quick to collapse the russian high in FI. I was right, and the gfs is now showing it all the way through FI. Big step forward. Some just zoom over to the gfs at 384 hours, and dont see -15t850's, so they get upset. Look at the trends. A few days ago the atlantic was poised to power on through, and now were already seeing at the very least a continental feed in FI due to a large block to our NE. If the models start to downgrade(and i mean over a day NOT a single run) then i may start to be worried.