Model Discussion January 18th

[Weathizard]

Very strange ensembles, I woke up and looked at the 00z ensembles and now i'm looking at those ensembles, crazy difference. But as has been said, take it with a pinch of salt as we've seen how much 1 run changes from another

[KTtom]

GFS ensembles are out.... IT wasn't a cold outlier and it was a mild outlier at the end !!

Ive pasted 00z and 06z below for comparison and discussion

I'm assuming that as it was a mild outlier it was also an outlier in terms of pressure, with most other ensembles keeping it unsettled?

[john mac]

Given the uncertainty everyone in here appears to accept, I really cannot see the point of post after post along the line of '06 is better', '00 is worse' etc, etc. We can all see that stringing

2 similar runs back to back beyond T+96hrs is currently beyond the capability of the big guns, so why not take an overview that things are slowly changing towards better/colder prospects,

rather than lurching from elation to depression every 6hrs?

From my point of view all ihave said is that the 6z had big differences to the 0z at certain specific timeframes in the runs.

[chionomaniac]

Oslo pressure ensembles - on the up!

[bluearmy]

Channel Low anyone! This from the parallel!

Some great charts in the ensembles too!

I think thats the control run in the normal ensembles. no parallel for the 06z suite out yet. (though i am waiting with baited breath seeing as they run at a higher res to T192)

[andy_leics22]

Have you got them for central England, as Aberdeen is usually a fair bit colder.

Those are good ensembles though, quite a lot of support for the colder evolution!

[weather_it_will]

Meto update 12pm states still uncertainty in the weather.

Plenty of changes in the models to come it seems.

[Alex]

This forum is incredible! 4 hours ago everyone was writing off Feb, 4 hours later everyone is saying massive pattern change and snowmageddon lol.

The models seem to be toying with different ideas and the big difference between the 00z and the 06z is the way the lows are allowed to push SE across Europe putting us in the colder part of the general flow. It'll probably be all different again on the 12z.

[andy_leics22]

I'm astonished at how much of a scatter there is on the Ensembles at only 5 days away, the models really aren't handling this well and haven't done for the past week. This could go either way, I think this time next Thursday we could be looking at a prolonged and exciting cold spell or a disappointing Atlantic victory.

[Zakos]

I'm astonished at how much of a scatter there is on the Ensembles at only 5 days away, the models really aren't handling this well and haven't done for the past week. This could go either way, I think this time next Thursday we could be looking at a prolonged and exciting cold spell or a disappointing Atlantic victory.

yes, this inconsistency has been going on for some time now,strange.It could go either way, and there seems to be very little in between. The mean is below average, so surely that would indicate a slight bias towards cold?

[Zerouali lives]

Is that a cold core low over the UK at T150 on the GFS 06z with a more southerly tracking jet?

[Buzzit]

GFS Run 11/01 00z showed good enough conditions to blanket the UK in snow on 22/1. GFS is now making a return to what it originally progged a week ago (all be it slightly later) . I am sure historically that this is standard practice for the GFS .

By the way, I had not seen this link site before (there are links to NW charts in here as well) http://www.weathercharts.org

[Dorsetbred]

Channel Low anyone! This from the Control! Some great charts in the ensembles too!

SALIVATE

[summersnow]

Reality check! As I mentioned last night, keep in mind warm surrounding SSTs and not particularly cold Europe or Scandinavia. Any northern or temporary western blocking that plunges cold air over the UK is likely to be hugely moderated.

In fact, the NH as a whole isn't particularly cold this winter and snow cover less than average in North America. This is probably having an effect on the overall pattern and more likely as a result to produce UK damp squibs!

As ever, I hope I'm wrong and just pointing out the obvious.

[Shunter]

The synoptic change eminates from LP energy that moves NE towards Greenland at T69. If that energy can migrate north creating WAA to the west of Greenland it will divert and dilute jetstream energy and maybe just provide enough window of opportunity for the UK to get its overdue Xmas present .

Just seen the METO 15-30 day update..had to laugh The Phrase."used to be indecisive,now we are not so sure" springs to mind !!.

Edited January 19, 2012 by Shunter

[Brum Watcher]

come back to check models and really stunned by GFS's progress. Even the ensembles. A change is looming. Big Cold Upgrade.

[TEITS]

Just seen the ensembles and blimey is the first word that comes to mind. When I mentioned the uncertainity last night in the 18Z ensembles I have to be honest I thought I might be straw clutching. Now i've finally looked at the 06Z ensembles and the answer is no I wasn't.

What some of the ensembles do is similiar to the OP with the trough moving SE. However quiet a few other members keep this to the W and then we see trough disruption with the energy going SE and at the same time pressure building over Scandi.

The upper temp mean has taken quiet a drop around the 25th and thats a full 5C colder than the ensembles were suggesting yesterday.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120119/06/t850Cambridgeshire.png

[bluearmy]

the parallel gefs remaining interesting. given that they are running at a decent resolution to t192, this theme of raising heights to our north a little and diverting the trough to our sw is certainly something thats been hinted at over the past few days but never become the dominant trend. need to be cautious though. only one run. want to see the 12z 'pick up the baton

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Just seen the ensembles and blimey is the first word that comes to mind. When I mentioned the uncertainity last night in the 18Z ensembles I have to be honest I thought I might be straw clutching. Now i've finally looked at the 06Z ensembles and the answer is no I wasn't.

What some of the ensembles do is similiar to the OP with the trough moving SE. However quiet a few other members keep this to the W and then we see trough disruption with the energy going SE and at the same time pressure building over Scandi.

The upper temp mean has taken quiet a drop around the 25th and thats a full 5C colder than the ensembles were suggesting yesterday.

http://cdn.nwstatic....bridgeshire.png

And they could well be 5c warmer by the end of the 12z such is the chaos in the models at the moment. I am just being pessamistic hopefully lol. Probably the best thing to do is to take the mean of the mean ensembles over the course of a week lol.

Edited January 19, 2012 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Stuie]

Blimey someone has re-booted the GFS computer, even at T60 looks colder.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=60&mode=0

[MisfitDog3]

The shift is astonishing...yes I know it's only one run but even looking at a like with like, I've rarely seen such a shift in such a short time, particualarly from GFS. It's a worry though because it just screams 'instability' in any reliable output to take forward, especially when it starts moving phantom Low Pressures around (see current English Channel solution!!). I've seen that before and it's not a vote of confidence.... The next 24 hours are going to be the most important of the last two weeks to decide where we go in the next fortnight.

[waz20000]

The shift is astonishing...yes I know it's only one run but even looking at a like with like, I've rarely seen such a shift in such a short time, particualarly from GFS. It's a worry though because it just screams 'instability' in any reliable output to take forward, especially when it starts moving phantom Low Pressures around (see current English Channel solution!!). I've seen that before and it's not a vote of confidence.... The next 24 hours are going to be the most important of the last two weeks to decide where we go in the next fortnight.

[jethro]

Don't know if I want to laugh or cry but the 06Z is predicting widespread snow!

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

Ditto. I live smack bang in the middle of that grey hole.

[nick sussex]

Who needs model output, just come in here and see how many pages the thread has extended to, I left to go out at page 8 and came back to see its upto page 13!

I sort of knew then it wasn't just 5 pages of toys out of prams posts! I think these models should be sued for cruelty to cold lovers, the GFS 06hrs run picks up on a trend hinted at by both the ECM and UKMO, typically they've now dropped this!

This is really the only quick way to cold as the other option is that slow moving trough over the UK and waiting for that to eject some energy south eastwards under the block, I'd advise people to not get too excited yet as we've been here before countless times over the last few weeks.

If the others go with this tonight then there may finally be light at the end of the tunnel but thats still a big IF!

[feb1991blizzard]

The most important run of the winter is going to be the ECM 32 dayer and the subsequent MO update tommorow, though of course any favourable OP or ens output in the meantime is always a welcome boost and maybe a pointer.