London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread.

[Coast]

If the latest GFS run verifies for Friday into Saturday, then get your sledges ready - over 24 hours of continuous snow for some (inc me!!)

[kold weather]

I'd be frankly very surprised if several troughs don't form in that deep cold pool, they nearly always do once your getting 850hpa profiles below -12C over the North Sea.

[Met4Cast]

Is that a weather forecast or a more general observation?!

The kink in the isobar generally means a very shallow feature has developed and can bring precipitation, in this case due to the cold uppers and dew points it would be snow. I think it really will come down to radar watching tonight though, GFS has very light PPN over our region later this afternoon and into the night, maybe its underestimating it?

[Neilsouth]

SNOWING

In herne bay, also a number of pellet showers across the north east kent coast

[Coast]

This could be the biggest wind up by the models yet, it was looking so good but now it's cold

Big WOOP

SNOWING

In herne bay, also a number of pellet showers across the north east kent coast

I don't think there is anything more I need to add at this point....... :winky:

[warrenb]

Snow grains still falling here.

[Neilsouth]

I don't think there is anything more i need to add at this point.......

There is, snow flurries n pellets aint good enough damn it!

[Shunter]

but its 102 hours away, whats the pointother than fantasy !!!

[kate1]

BBC is now saying light snow for my part of Kent (West) for both today and tomorrow - doesn't seem to be showing on the MetO website though, but this hasn't yet been updated.

Btw, as a noob would like to thank everyone for all their contributions to the forums (and on occasion for inducing the odd

nervous breakdown) - suspect it will be many years before I have the courage to post in the MOD forum, but you are all helping me to begin - just about - to understand the basics...After years of lamppost watching at least I now have some scientific knowledge of what is going on and why - mind you, after the last couple of weeks, not sure that is such a good thing...blissful ignorance is a lot less stressful... But I think I'm hooked now!

[Coast]

White (pink?) out?

[kold weather]

06z GFS broadly goes:

Thursday - Thames Streamer probable, especially overnight.

Friday- Wind angle shifts to NE and favours E.Kent.

Friday night - trough/frontal system drives SE and introduces general moderate snow, probably 3-6cms from this feature on top of the showers.

[Coast]

whats the point other than fantasy !!!

Trends and patterns

[abruzzi spur]

Laura Tobin is incorrect

There will be snow moving in later this afternoon/evening

Yamkin, have you inhabited the mind of Roger J Smith on the model thread? This is what he (or is it you?!) has posted over there just now:

"If the 06z verified it would be a Jan 1709 type strike on France as well as near-record cold for southeast England. Snow streamers could be explosive Wed-Thurs and bring very heavy snow to Kent and even parts of London. I would say a within 72-hours blizzard alert is now warranted if you believe those maps. I would not be surprised to see 60 cms of snow in heavy thunder-snow streamers near the Thames estuary. These could carry on some distance towards Surrey and Sussex from that direction, I don't picture this as being skinny little 10 cm bands but Great Lakes style mega-bands when you consider the thermal contrast. The gradient is good, you don't necessarily need much more than 25 knots of gradient to produce mega-streamer activity.

This is the sort of organized troughing that I was expecting the North Sea to introduce, earlier maps looked too passive. In terms of France, this would drive -10 to -15 temperatures throughout the country even into the southwest wine regions and let's hope they are ready for that. Readings of -20 to -25 are not inconceivable in northeast France, Benelux and Germany with this.

For the UK, I think the country needs to start preparing for the certainty of extreme cold and locally disruptive snowfalls, because that looks 99% likely now and will have a considerable cost as well as being a severe health hazard for the elderly and disabled. This isn't going to be a dip down to -5, it's going to be a plunge down into the -15 to -20 range in many parts. I would defer to people more familiar with UK conditions but there may well be a rash of problems with frozen water systems and possibly situations where snow contributes to frozen infrastructure locally. There is an element of flash freeze suggested by the rapid onset of the severe cold."

I think this puts your posts warning of mayhem into the shade!!

Remember folks it's only 1 person's view of 1 model run. Please.

AS

[Shunter]

PAtience its just the start.......I remember nearly all my lifetime best snowfalls started from Snow grains and BBc wether forecasters saying "staying mostly dry !!

[abruzzi spur]

The kink in the isobar generally means a very shallow feature has developed and can bring precipitation, in this case due to the cold uppers and dew points it would be snow. I think it really will come down to radar watching tonight though, GFS has very light PPN over our region later this afternoon and into the night, maybe its underestimating it?

Thanks, I was just having some fun with the idea that things were kinky over the south east.

Note to self: if I have to explain my joke it probably hasn't worked....

AS

[Neilsouth]

PAtience its just the start.......I remember nearly all my lifetime best snowfalls started from Snow grains and BBc wether forecasters saying "staying mostly dry !!

Very true!, You need atleast -10 uppers and that wind coming from the sea

[tinybill]

snow grains in suffolk

[Coast]

Kinky over the SE ...

Tied up with this temp differential area?

[chionomaniac]

Very true!, You need atleast -10 uppers and that wind coming from the sea

-8ºC upper over the SE presently and a few showers kicking off on the radar heading for Kent

Edit - they have the look of a weak streamer

Edited January 30, 2012 by chionomaniac

[Tom Montalbano]

Just a heads up to Essex/Kentish members, tonight looks interesting. At the moment an area of snow is pushing N through E.Belgium associated with a small cold pool of -10 uppers. Later today, as the flow starts to turn more towards the NE/E, that cold pool will be dragged westwards across Essex/Kent and I would expect some wintry showers to break out in those areas, nothing too dramatic but just the hors d'oeuvres before hopefully the main course a bit further down the line.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120130/06/15/ukwind.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120130/06/18/ukwind.png

Regards,

Tom.

[tinybill]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert/

RJ might be on to something in the model thread !!!

[Azores Hi]

Nice streamer setting up from the north Kent coast stretching to Canterbury. Can anyone in Canterbury tell us what the showers are falling as?

[chionomaniac]

Nice streamer setting up from the north Kent coast stretching to Canterbury. Can anyone in Canterbury tell us what the showers are falling as?

They should be snow.

The first streamer of the cold spell and year!!

[kold weather]

Yes there is a weak little streamer starting to develop, classic looking Kent streamer.

If this is what is developing with -8C aloft, what happens when we add another 6-8C to the Lapse rates by Thursday night?

Remember the models do a shocking job on this sort of precip...

Just a heads up to Essex/Kentish members, tonight looks interesting. At the moment an area of snow is pushing N through E.Belgium associated with a small cold pool of -10 uppers. Later today, as the flow starts to turn more towards the NE/E, that cold pool will be dragged westwards across Essex/Kent and I would expect some wintry showers to break out in those areas, nothing too dramatic but just the hors d'oeuvres before hopefully the main course a bit further down the line.

http://cdn.nwstatic....6/15/ukwind.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....6/18/ukwind.png

Regards,

Tom.

Yes sounds reasonable to me, The higher reoslution models have been keen on this in recent runs so seems reasonable enough to me.

[swash]

I'm totally confused.

Looking at the Met Office website, I'm led to believe it will be cold but no snow to worry about in the next 5 days.

Looking at the Model thread here on Netweather, I might not be able to get out of my house by Thursday, due to the depth of snow, my pipes will have frozen and everyone over the age of 70 will be dead (I might have made that bit up!)

I understand that nothing can be set in stone, but I'm amazed at such differences at just 72 hours out!