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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

The charts are up and down like a yo yo,i dont know whether the weather comming or going,i do not think it knows either,could all be happy again very soon,temp dipping here to 2c now.

trouble is Jo that they have all, GFS, ECM and UKMO, been down this afternoon and evening, but maybe this yo yo has a very long string and is about to hit the bottom and then magically spin its way back up again!

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High Altitude Rookie

High Altitude

Posted
  • Location: Middlesex, Ruislip
  • Location: Middlesex, Ruislip
Posted

Will be interesting to see the country file forecast and see whether it's any different from the country tracks one this morning. I've seen that before where there have been developments during the day and this has been reflected in the evening broadcast. If the meto are still running with the general consensus then i'll be content.

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Kentish Kiwi Rookie

Kentish Kiwi

Posted
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
Posted

Seems like the writings on the wall for this cold spell from +96h onwards. High too far east, no undercut and northern arm of the jet sinks everything and heartbreaking leaves us in south-westerlies. Things could well change overnight but I personally feel I've had enough false hope... It's becoming too tiring and realistically there's only one way things are trending.

If anyone here is reading the model thread and wondering who to put faith in, I'd say Kold Weather is calling things most sensibly and has been for the last few days:

ECM and UKMO have nearly identical heights in the Atlantic with that low. The GFS is weaker but they all agree on the biggest by far and away issue with this whole set-up...and thats the fact that we get NO undercut. I really cannot say it enough, but no undercut means no sustained easterly given the Atlantic.

We must see trough disruption in the Atlantic. If we get that we almost get into a win-win situation. Problem is most models simply have ditched that idea now.

danm, they are sweeping comments but when you have good agreement at 72hrs on the ONE key feature that will make or break this set-up (The angle of the upper low in the Atlantic) then I'd feel more confident on that solution.

It's not quite totally over yet, but as you say its a massive hammerblow.

Still, we get a decent enough ESE/E/ENE flow before everything completely sinks, so there's a possibility we may get some reasonable convective snow showers off the North Sea later in the week. The positive thing is that it any precipitation past Wednesday is unlikely to be marginal, even on the coastline.

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

Will be interesting to see the country file forecast and see whether it's any different from the country tracks one this morning. I've seen that before where there have been developments during the day and this has been reflected in the evening broadcast. If the meto are still running with the general consensus then i'll be content.

BBC TV news forecast just said a cold week, mostly dry 'more details on Countryfile'. So that suggests more details of the mostly dry and cold theme, but I would expect them to say something around the risk of some snow showers from time to time and increasing uncertainty at the end of the week. Mind you it doesn't matter what I think they'll say as in less than an hour they are going to say something and this post will be redundant (and probably entirely wrong!)

AS

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Jo S Enthusiast

Jo S

Posted
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
  • Weather Preferences: love snow and frosty mornings
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
Posted

abruzzi spur

well how long is a piece of string,it is never ending here,just looked at bbc weather boring for me

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

abruzzi spur

well how long is a piece of string,it is never ending here,just looked at bbc weather boring for me

it's a good question!

PS Why did you post a link to my rather boring profile?!

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Jo S Enthusiast

Jo S

Posted
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
  • Weather Preferences: love snow and frosty mornings
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
Posted

Abruzzi lol sorry,um new to all of this and not great with computers,still learning and making errors it seems,STILL,

will keep quiet and just read if thats pos lol

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

Abruzzi lol sorry,um new to all of this and not great with computers,still learning and making errors it seems,STILL,

will keep quiet and just read if thats pos lol

no, please keep posting, I just thought you were subtly telling me there was something embarassing in my profile that contradicted what was in my post! It's this regional thread that got me confident enough to post a bit more often so definitely keep going!

AS

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Weather Wonder Contributor

Weather Wonder

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
Posted (edited)

well how long is a piece of string,it is never ending here

Its double the legnth from the end to the middle :p

Once we have the cold in place its a matter of time before our region see snow whether its from convection off the north sea or an atlantic breakdown. We still have three days untill the real cold air is forecast to arrive and a snow event can appear at the last minute. All the best snow events i have witnessed all appeared at no more than a days notice.

Edited by Weather Wonder
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

12z NAE already bringing in showers to the SE and Thames at 48hrs, and thats without the deepest cold coming over. I'd have thought both the GFS and the ECM would have heavy snow showers for the SE on Wednesday night into Thursday.

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Andrew snow hope Apprentice

Andrew snow hope

Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
Posted (edited)

Ok here's a question is Reading 1. South East 2. Central Southern England or 3. Both, when it comes to hearing forecasts it gets confusing!

Edited by Andrew snow hope
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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

Its double the legnth from the end to the middle :p

Once we have the cold in place its a matter of time before our region see snow whether its from convection off the north sea or an atlantic breakdown. We still have three days untill the real cold air is forecast to arrive and a snow event can appear at the last minute. All the best snow events i have witnessed all appeared at no more than a days notice.

I hope you don't mean my profile!

Agree about the cold - get the cold here and then who knows what could develop - history tells us to keep an open mind (even though the models later today have suggested we shouldn't get our hopes up too much for now)

AS

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msx999 Newbie

msx999

Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
Posted

Ok here's a question is Reading 1. South East 2. Central Southern England or 3. Both, when it comes to hearing forecasts it gets confusing!

I'd have said Central. I feel like I'm on the Extreme west of the SE being close to Heathrow

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

Ok here's a question is Reading 1. South East 2. Central Southern England or 3. Both, when it comes to hearing forecasts it gets confusing!

This one's easy.

If snow is forecast for the South East, it is in the South East. If snow is forecast for Central Southern England then that's where Reading is. This logic can be stretched up to a point but once you have convinced yourself Reading is in the Scottish Borders you are probably clutching at straws

I used to live in Bristol and sometimes Bristol was in Wales or the West Midlands, and occasionally (1978/9) was firmly in the West Country.

AS

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Corralejo, Fuerteventura.
  • Location: Corralejo, Fuerteventura.
Posted

I used to live in Bristol and sometimes Bristol was in Wales or the West Midlands, and occasionally (1978/9) was firmly in the West Country.

AS

NO Bristolian would ever say we are "sometimes in Wales"! Horror show time!

West Country.

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

NO Bristolian would ever say we are "sometimes in Wales"! Horror show time!

West Country.

I know, generally I could not agree more but if snow is in the forecast? Some principles are worth ditching!

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yamkin Experienced

yamkin

Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
Posted

Temps are supposed to decrease over the course of the week, the temps are not just suddenly drop straight away. Yamkin ive heard a few people say we could see some snow maybe later on in the week, have you had warnings for then?

Talking about sitting on the fence. MetO is going for very cold with dry period & possible snow. Expect a battle between West & East. In my opinion, I expect the West will try to push in, but the East flow will be very hard to shift.

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Shunter Enthusiast

Shunter

Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
Posted

Countryfile Forecast for the SE: Cold....wintry flurries later in the week. Nothing substantial.

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

Countryfile Forecast for the SE: Cold....wintry flurries later in the week. Nothing substantial.

Yep, interesting that they said an Atlantic front Friday-time might try to move in, but no suggestion of a switch to mild south westerlies by the end of the week

Definitely some cold nights coming as the week goes on. Time to get some extra logs in for the fire.

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Jo S Enthusiast

Jo S

Posted
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
  • Weather Preferences: love snow and frosty mornings
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
Posted

ok i am trying to be positive here,there is still hope for all of us,we all know how much the weather can change in a flash,and we do still have a chance of snow,so never say never,with our great British weather. :p

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Andrew snow hope Apprentice

Andrew snow hope

Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
Posted

Cool so I will look out for mentions of central, south eastern England with a bit of west. Central I think is. Still no hope of snow then here from what I am hearing

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snowblues Rookie

snowblues

Posted
  • Location: swanley nw kent
  • Location: swanley nw kent
Posted

Countryfile saying mainly dry for the week, except showing a little snow in East Anglia on fri.Does anybody think these cold uppers and light east winds will produce some snow for us?

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Marie Aficionado

Marie

Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: snow cold,storms and heat
  • Location: Brighton
Posted (edited)

Temp not dropping too rapidly ,Currently 2.5c dewpoint 1.0

Edited by Marie
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