London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread.

[crazysnowcatz4]

Temperature variations are mad atm,. dropped from 6.5 to 3.2C then just as rapidly rose to 6.0C. Felt bitterly cold when I was out getting the Sunday lunch , especially sitting waiting in a shop that insisted on keeping the door open.

[Jayces]

We are still in a "jam tomorrow" situation. We keep hearing of mind numbing temperatures and deluges of snow...but what do have ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5c temp 2c DP fog and drizzle. The Met offiice have mentioned a mainly dry week, a few coastal wintry showers with a potential return to milder weather next weekend. This is not record breaking cold and huge dumps of snow. As far as I'm aware no councils have been forewarned of Heavy Snow in our area either.

GFS/ECM & UKMO throw out loads of eye candy but its always at T144 to T384. Yes its colder than last week, yes it might Snow in the SE but not till the temps and DP's drop and as for T850HP of -20C ...well it might be a record ...but then again it shows how rare an event it could be, so I think we should put some perspective into the sensationalism thats been written in some parts of this site, lower our expectations to a realistic level ( Some snow and marginal temeperatures as ususal ) and hope for the best.

Maybe then I can get some sleep and stop rushing to my IPAD every 6 hours for my latest Fix of model hysteria..

I'm pretty sure Yamkin who works for Croydon (the section that runs the gritters) has said they have received an early warning from the Met Office recently.

I also work for Croydon but haven't seen anything but then I wouldn't expect them to announce it publicly let alone to every employee as no point in telling everyone until it's guaranteed. That said even so we never had any forewarning of previous snow events even the ones that crippled the borough though Yamkin's team obviously had regular updates.

Wise words for the rest of the post but in the defence of the more excitable here and in the model thread they are telling it as it is with what different model runs show at different times and if they actually panned out as they show then everything people have said would come to pass.

As always though with the weather in general and even so more with winter weather it is a good idea to only look a day or 2 ahead for what is almost guaranteed even though snow can pop up in an even shorter time frame.

Look at the amber warning for Wales that has appeared at 12 valid for 3:30, so basically 3 and a half hours notice of heavy snow, Granted it was under a yellow warning earlier but it shows how much can change from a predicted 5 cm fall to 10 cm fall.

For us though yes the reliable range of the next 2 days shows falling temperatures and dry at the moment with hints of showers Wednesday but nothing concrete beyond that.

[BLUNT]

Watched the BBC Forecast at 12.PM, All they said in our neck of the woods cold and dry temps 4oc (thought rather high) some Snow NE, and Snow showers in the North Sea, all the activity over the West

Laura Tobin sounded quite relived at the forecast as she read it, perhaps it was going to be more complex at one stage??

Edited January 29, 2012 by BLUNT

[jackie]

Dunno about anyone else but the countryfile forecast for the week seemed to be more a general outline, no real specifics were given and I expect it will change a lot

[lottiekent]

Never like the Country Tracks forecast as much as I do the Country File one...not sure why, just prefer the evening one!

3.7c and overcast at the moment

[Jo S]

Lately it feels more like spring here,i feel like i should be doing some gardening

[snowblues]

Surely there will be more snow shower activity than what countryfile showed . With cold uppers of -10 o C expecting even may be even lower and there is a moderate flow in the wind.Needed a snow ramper doing the forcast.

[yamkin]

Convection off the North Sea has formed and PPN has just crossed Colchester from a NE flow in the direction of Basildon & London. There's another convective band of PPN just crossing Canvey Island in the direction of Chatham. Let's see how this pans out. Could be quite interesting

[lewis028]

Yep can confirm that yamkin but just falling as rain, gone very dark outside

[msx999]

Convection off the North Sea has formed and PPN has just crossed Colchester from a NE flow in the direction of Basildon & London. There's another convective band of PPN just crossing Canvey Island in the direction of Chatham. Let's see how this pans out. Could be quite interesting

Yep noticed that, and it begins....

[Jo S]

Gone really dark here,going to rain,dam when will we get some snow

[Jayces]

Might turn later as temperatures drop but yeah currently on radar only showing as rain. A hint of sleet at the back edge around Colchester but blink and you miss it.

[clark3r]

Went to Asda in brighton today and they are displaying big tins of de icers and huge snow shovels!

maybe they no somethings on its way!

hoping for some upgrades with precipitation tonight for friday onwards!

[msx999]

on the radar, the ppn from the west is pushing in closer and closer. What are the chances this could reach the western side of the SE later on tonight when it willl be a lot colder and possible turn to snow?

[Marie]

Temp not falling here at all still 5.6c

[SMU]

First reports of sleet falling in Essex..

S

[Paul Sherman]

First reports of sleet falling in Essex..

S

Where was that from Steve?

As you know I am pretty much the bell weather down here as anything that comes from the East or North East will usually hit us first.

Will keep you all updated over the next few days.

[WheresTheSnow]

Temps are supposed to decrease over the course of the week, the temps are not just suddenly drop straight away. Yamkin ive heard a few people say we could see some snow maybe later on in the week, have you had warnings for then?

[Jo S]

temp has dropped by 2 degrees here,so you never know,it might just snow,oh i can dream

[SMU]

South essex according to jason M ( Model thread)

S

[Jayces]

And so it begins.....

[Jo S]

Temp has dropped by two degrees here in a short time,you never know might get a bit of snow,id be happy with sleet at the moment,ha ha thats how desperate im getting :wacko:

[Paul Sherman]

Ok Cheers Mate

Just looked at the radar, something seemed to have intensified about 5 miles to my North West and moved Swesterly must have been that. Bone dry here all day with bits and pieces of Fog all day. Temp and Dp's still to high though so no loss

[lewis028]

Hope you have your snow machine on stand by Paul, good to see we are getting some convection already, eyes down for the 12z GFS..

Edited January 29, 2012 by lewis028

[Jason M]

South essex according to jason M ( Model thread)

S

Yep, mix of rain, hail, sleet (Basildon). Just happened to be outside . Can understand why someone else reported rain though.

Its not so much whats falling though as the fact that convection is already kicking off. Get sub -10 uppers in a couple of days and no one is going to convince me that it won't be carnage east of London (even in a fairly slack flow)