London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3

[Coast]

Can I have a forecast?,

I'm driving to essex friday night to visit a scary place

[Paul Sherman]

Can I have a forecast?, I'm driving to essex friday night to visit a scary place

I'd rather stay at home if the snow is bad lol

Your not coming round to my gaff to see my wife are you Neil ??

[kate1]

Feeling really icy now as the breeze starts to strengthen...I am not so sure that we should write winter off just yet. This morning there are slightly more positive signs as the models begin to get to grips with this incredibly complex set of circumstances. Just one day's snowfall would be lovely - don't personally care if it settles for weeks! One thing does worry me though - if this cold spell is prolonged, will it kill off all the trees/plants which began to grow and flower way too early in January? We have had camellias here in full bloom for a couple of weeks and the daffodils are well on their way - can't think snow is going to do them a lot of good.

[tinybill]

Can I have a forecast?, I'm driving to essex friday night to visit a scary place

I'd rather stay at home if the snow is bad lol

wot the mother in-law!!

[Neilsouth]

Your not coming round to my gaff to see my wife are you Neil ??

Why what has she said

[Paul Sherman]

Why what has she said

That some bloke with a Flat Cap with the Surname Meldrew is coming around on Friday evening for a forecast!

Nah seriously what part of Essex are you going to for your Haunted Spectacular ??

[warrenb]

Temperature has dropped here half a degree in the last half hour to 1.3C, Dew point is -2.8C

[Neilsouth]

Not sure as I'm picking up the leader and going via their gps ... Mid feb we are going to swanley

[Radiating Dendrite]

SIGNIFICANT!...........that's my middle name

I looked at the models and was about to go for the razorblades. Is the 06z an upgrade? Fill me in peeps!

[snowbob]

Glimmers of hope in the mod thread

Still not nailed that the Atlantic will win at the weekend for our region

Not really worried about that till sat though

Looking ahead to tonight thurs and fri with excitement of a covering

Was pleasantly surprised to go home to some settled snow after work yesterday. Not alot just looked like thick frost on cars and roofs but nice all the same.

[leemondo]

I think the models are overestimating the warm front and underestimating the strength of the block, plus its nearly 4 days away skint time for changes :-)

[Jo S]

Can I have a forecast?, I'm driving to essex friday night to visit a scary place

I'd rather stay at home if the snow is bad lol

Your not going to Epping forest are you,very ghostly there

[snow freak]

I have a horrid feeling the battle this weekend will turn out to be a damp (literally) squid and will just go to show how consistently disappointing this winter has been. When they are even having lying snow in the deserts of north africa (and I don't mean the Atlas mountains) then you have to agree there is something seriously wrong going on. We can never win on this island.

[Gowon]

It's freakin freezing out there and the ECM keeps us in the freezer til late Monday

The model drama isn't over though and we could see more upgrades with more of the UK hanging on to colder weather.

P.S. so when are we expecting our next snowfall peeps?

[Met4Cast]

It's freakin freezing out there and the ECM keeps us in the freezer til late Monday

The model drama isn't over though and we could see more upgrades with more of the UK hanging on to colder weather.

P.S. so when are we expecting our next snowfall peeps?

Well, everyday this week it seems people have been saying "tomorrow" Yesterday, Thursday was looking good, but now apparently its Friday so at this rate, next December?

Only joking, Friday seems our best bet, but no doubt that'll be downgraded

Edited February 1, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[Gowon]

What?! I swear you lot said there'll be some tonight

[Paul Sherman]

Just to give you all an Idea how Hard it is for the Atlantic to Remove a Block in Scandi/Russia.

1982 was a pretty decent Winter with generous amounts of Snowfall, Blocking really took hold at the end of January and during February the Atlantic tried and tried to smash through, I remember as a 10 year old watching the BBC Forecasts and them saying Milder next week but the Block refused to budge and it took a whole month for it too finally win out, the Block back then was a measly 1035 Millibars but just look at how it performed. By March 1st Winter was over with the Atlantic Winning through but there were numerous Battle Royale's with the Block refusing to budge.

So is it going to be easy this time for Mr Atlantic, one thing on it's side this year is the amazing power of the Jet Stream since October!

- Looks similar to Matty's Post earlier eh ? 31st Jan1982

- Azores Ridge settles over Uk but trending towards Scandi

- Block Set-Up to our East

- Ut oh Only 1 Winner Now Mr Atlantic - I bet if we had Forums the knives would be out!

- Wrong!!!! Block repels attack Number 3 I think it was by this stage

- Think this was Attack Number 5 by this stage Just gathering in the Atlantic

- By now the Atlantic was getting Savvy so a Double Team over the Top tried to break the 1 Month Hold the Block had!

- And finally by March 1st the Block had gone and that was the end of Winter as the Atlantic had steam rollered through

My point being is do not under - estimate this Block and how long it could hold or indeed fight back, If the Atlantic wins this battle I expect some kind of High Pressure to re assert itself during Mid February

Paul S

[SMU]

What ever happened the Strat Warming?

Outlook is abysmal this morning.

Hope you guys in SE England can pick up something out of it, such a good opportunity for all of us, we really deserve to get something.

06z GEFS =

Todays Chart at 00Z

http://modeles.meteo...20100-0-6.png?0

Todays chart from the GFS 06z 6 days ago at 144-

http://modeles.meteo...606-0-144.png?6

Now todays 06z GFS at 144

http://modeles.meteo...106-0-144.png?6

BANK IT!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited February 1, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Jo S]

Just put my heating on in the lounge now,hands and feet are frozen,couldnt last any longer,temp 0.C here and dew -3

[Kentish Kiwi]

I've been outside for the last couple of hours on the golf course doing the drinks buggy and can confirm its bloody cold with a strengthening icy wind. Some shallow cumulus/stratocumulus moving in from the east - not the type that looks as though it's going to bubble up anytime soon though.

1C here with a windchill well below zero. Sun coming out has brought a bit of a thaw to yesterday's covering.

Edited February 1, 2012 by Kentish Kiwi

[Snow Saint]

Just to give you all an Idea how Hard it is for the Atlantic to Remove a Block in Scandi/Russia.

1982 was a pretty decent Winter with generous amounts of Snowfall, Blocking really took hold at the end of January and during February the Atlantic tried and tried to smash through, I remember as a 10 year old watching the BBC Forecasts and them saying Milder next week but the Block refused to budge and it took a whole month for it too finally win out, the Block back then was a measly 1035 Millibars but just look at how it performed. By March 1st Winter was over with the Atlantic Winning through but there were numerous Battle Royale's with the Block refusing to budge.

So is it going to be easy this time for Mr Atlantic, one thing on it's side this year is the amazing power of the Jet Stream since October!

- Looks similar to Matty's Post earlier eh ? 31st Jan1982

- Azores Ridge settles over Uk but trending towards Scandi

- Block Set-Up to our East

- Ut oh Only 1 Winner Now Mr Atlantic - I bet if we had Forums the knives would be out!

- Wrong!!!! Block repels attack Number 3 I think it was by this stage

- Think this was Attack Number 5 by this stage Just gathering in the Atlantic

- By now the Atlantic was getting Savvy so a Double Team over the Top tried to break the 1 Month Hold the Block had!

- And finally by March 1st the Block had gone and that was the end of Winter as the Atlantic had steam rollered through

My point being is do not under - estimate this Block and how long it could hold or indeed fight back, If the Atlantic wins this battle I expect some kind of High Pressure to re assert itself during Mid February

Paul S

Paul,a fascinating read,but was the High Pressure you talked about in the same position/orientation?...does this have an effect?

Regards

[wintrywend]

06z GEFS =

Todays Chart at 00Z

http://modeles.meteo...20100-0-6.png?0

Todays chart from the GFS 06z 6 days ago at 144-

http://modeles.meteo...606-0-144.png?6

Now todays 06z GFS at 144

http://modeles.meteo...106-0-144.png?6

BANK IT!!!!!!!!!!!

Steve do you have to eat your hat today? or do you think we could be in with a chance a bit later?

[A Wintry Mix]

N24 saying chance of snow on Friday for us, and a chance of more over the weekend mentioning the front stalling over us as well.

[tinybill]

Just put my heating on in the lounge now,hands and feet are frozen,couldnt last any longer,temp 0.C here and dew -3

im upstaires with thick jumper/fleece on and i wont turn it on its mild out side 3.7 in a stiff eastly!!

[Tim Bland]

06z GEFS =

Todays Chart at 00Z

http://modeles.meteo...20100-0-6.png?0

Todays chart from the GFS 06z 6 days ago at 144-

http://modeles.meteo...606-0-144.png?6

Now todays 06z GFS at 144

http://modeles.meteo...106-0-144.png?6

BANK IT!!!!!!!!!!!

Indeed Steve, people have very short memories. Too many people looking at every run and accepting the OP as the final outcome. ECM 32 dayer has been spot on all winter and calls for a cold Feb. 06Z is a mild outlier as times and the mean is below average. Keep looking at the bigger picture and ignore the emotional posts on every single run is what I say!