South Central England Regional Discussion Thread Part 2

[snow freak]

these 'marginal' snow events really are a killer. i guess we won't know for sure until the event starts on saturday. i have to say that yesterday I was so positive and today it is looking less rosy. why can't we ever get a solid agreement in this country. we constantly have to live on the edge even when we have the cold in place. If this event doesn't end up giving us at least a few hours of decent snow, then i am giving up. It makes me too anxious looking at the charts, etc and I will just leave whatever happens to happen.... like I used to do.

[gottolovethisweather]

Please can everybody stay on topic where at all possible and I will requote what is intended by this thread in the words of Nick L.

A nice, shiny new thread to discuss the prospects for the weekend and beyond!

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

these 'marginal' snow events really are a killer. i guess we won't know for sure until the event starts on saturday. i have to say that yesterday I was so positive and today it is looking less rosy. why can't we ever get a solid agreement in this country. we constantly have to live on the edge even when we have the cold in place. If this event doesn't end up giving us at least a few hours of decent snow, then i am giving up. It makes me too anxious looking at the charts, etc and I will just leave whatever happens to happen.... like I used to do.

And that's coming from someone whose location is Northampton. It is clearly the folk who live nearer the coast and further southwest of the CSE region who should POSIBLY be most concerned over the lack of snow. This event is at t+36 or thereabouts so if anybody knows for sure, then they are a genius.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 3, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Dean E]

Afternoon!

I wouldn't pay much attention to the 6z again, as its this one is a mostly computer generated model with no use of weather balloons ect. Wait for the 12z for the verification!

I am now starting to believe that this front is really going to struggle agains the block and be brave enough to say it might not even reach parts of the South East... I say this because as the Warm front, closely followed by the cold front, moves across the South West and Wales; it develops a small area of low pressure. Now the latest MetO fax does show this, but if you look at the low pressure system, it has no other way to go but south due to the huge block over the east and a small area of high pressure to the SW.

I think this is looking the most likely senario at the moment and is very promising for places further west such as Dorest and IOW.

As many have said, this is a very complex situation that is a nightmare to forecast. But I've put my neck out there and made my forecast!

Lets see if my years of experience and knowledge pays off!

SM

[Frank Trough]

these 'marginal' snow events really are a killer. i guess we won't know for sure until the event starts on saturday. i have to say that yesterday I was so positive and today it is looking less rosy. why can't we ever get a solid agreement in this country. we constantly have to live on the edge even when we have the cold in place. If this event doesn't end up giving us at least a few hours of decent snow, then i am giving up. It makes me too anxious looking at the charts, etc and I will just leave whatever happens to happen.... like I used to do.

i would imagine you're quite well placed in northants for what ever may or may not occur!

Believe me, nowhere does "wrong side of marginal" better than the south coast. The BBC south today forecasters cannot wait to get on telly and tell us that it will be "rain along the coast". Even during the "little ice age" they would have been predicting drizzle on south facing coasts.

[gottolovethisweather]

Afternoon!

I wouldn't pay much attention to the 6z again, as its this one is a mostly computer generated model with no use of weather balloons ect. Wait for the 12z for the verification!

I am now starting to believe that this front is really going to struggle agains the block and be brave enough to say it might not even reach parts of the South East... I say this because as the Warm front, closely followed by the cold front, moves across the South West and Wales; it develops a small area of low pressure. Now the latest MetO fax does show this, but if you look at the low pressure system, it has no other way to go but south due to the huge block over the east and a small area of high pressure to the SW.

I think this is looking the most likely senario at the moment and is very promising for places further west such as Dorest and IOW.

As many have said, this is a very complex situation that is a nightmare to forecast. But I've put my neck out there and made my forecast!

Lets see if my years of experience and knowledge pays off!

SM

Well done SM, some good analysis there.

Hopefully Nick L will be back soon giving further updates and we will get advice from others, even higher up the echelons of netweather.

Good stuff.

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 3, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Dorsetbred]

Afternoon!

I think this is looking the most likely senario at the moment and is very promising for places further west such as Dorest and IOW. As many have said, this is a very complex situation that is a nightmare to forecast. But I've put my neck out there and made my forecast! Lets see if my years of experience and knowledge pays off! SM

I'd like to hope your right, but my gut feel goes the other way, the warmer air does push further east, and that only Portsmouth eastwards & northwards see the white precip.

Down here on the coast, my gut feel is for rain, I think the westward march will be too strong, and overpower the weakening easterly.

[Moth]

Early Sunday morning (8am boat), Wightlink permitting, I was planning to head to Stamford bridge via Redhill (to meet a friend and drop the car off) to watch Chelsea v. Man U.

So I wonder what the odds are of: a) Negotiating the A3, M25, A25 and B) the match actually going ahead if I do make it.

Answers on a postcard please, gutted if I can't make it as I haven't had a beer since New Year and was saving myself for a good drink on Sunday. Should I just chuck in the towel and get lashed tonight as there is no hope of getting up there Sunday?!

[Dean E]

Well done SM, some good analysis there.

Hopefully Nick L will be back soon giving further updates and we will get advice from others, even higher up the echelons of netweather.

Good stuff.

gottolovethisweather

Indeed, would like some further discussion to see what others can see, and will welcome that

I'd like to hope your right, but my gut feel goes the other way, the warmer air does push further east, and that only Portsmouth eastwards & northwards see the white precip.

Down here on the coast, my gut feel is for rain, I think the westward march will be too strong, and overpower the weakening easterly.

Indeed, even if this band was shifted further west like i've mentioned, your area many only see frontal snow... but we shall see later today and into tomorrow!

SM

[PompeyFC]

Early Sunday morning (8am boat), Wightlink permitting, I was planning to head to Stamford bridge via Redhill (to meet a friend and drop the car off) to watch Chelsea v. Man U.

So I wonder what the odds are of: a) Negotiating the A3, M25, A25 and B) the match actually going ahead if I do make it.

Answers on a postcard please, gutted if I can't make it as I haven't had a beer since New Year and was saving myself for a good drink on Sunday. Should I just chuck in the towel and get lashed tonight as there is no hope of getting up there Sunday?!

get lashed anyway - not good to go so long without having a beer dude - its not right !!

[Stoxs]

more twists and turns than the monaco grand prix!!!

current outputs are showing less chances for our area of seeing a significant spell of snow over saturday/ sunday.

North of our area is still looking 50/50. anywhere south of the M4 is less so around 30%.

I personally think this will improve for all east of a line from the Iow to around newcastle.

i hope we all see some significant snow over the coming weekend but would like to see the 12x gfs before comentting.

good luck folks!!!

[snow drift]

Indeed, would like some further discussion to see what others can see, and will welcome that

Indeed, even if this band was shifted further west like i've mentioned, your area many only see frontal snow... but we shall see later today and into tomorrow!

SM

You will be able to tell from the weather pref that this could well be the worst weather type for me. The good news is, that it will arrive during the night and I will be able to sleep through it rather than looking out the window at heavy rain thinking why could this not have been snow.

However the reality is I won't be able to sleep until I have seen that its rain just in case! Its at times like this when I wonder why I moved from the North Cotswold to Bournemouth.

[Dean E]

MetO Warnings update!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

SM

[Nick L]

Seems like the Met Office believe most of it will remain as snow. I'm not convinced though. I think very few of us will see an all-snow event.

[Dean E]

You will be able to tell from the weather pref that this could well be the worst weather type for me. The good news is, that it will arrive during the night and I will be able to sleep through it rather than looking out the window at heavy rain thinking why could this not have been snow.

However the reality is I won't be able to sleep until I have seen that its rain just in case! Its at times like this when I wonder why I moved from the North Cotswold to Bournemouth.

I remember from the January 2010 snowfest along Southern Counties that around a week after the main channel low event, we had the Atlantic try to make inroads into our region. I was in Poole at the time, as I was stuck at a friends house since the snow event a week before. But I remember that Bournemouth and Poole did very well out of that warm front! Places such as Devon and West Dorest obviously got a further pasting!

So expect the unexpected

SM

[snow drift]

Seems like the Met Office believe most of it will remain as snow. I'm not convinced though. I think very few of us will see an all-snow event.

Its called a cover your backside warning. Must not be so cynical,Must not be so cynical,Must not be so cynical!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dean E]

Seems like the Met Office believe most of it will remain as snow. I'm not convinced though. I think very few of us will see an all-snow event.

As its one of their earlier more severe warnings, I think they just do a rather large area just to get people into gear and preapre. Could be also a sign that they have no idea, just like us!

SM

[lynnsim]

A little more smiley now. I am JUST inside the Met's amber alert for Saturday!!

But I'm not going to get over-excited just yet. Being on the edge is not enough of a guarantee. Definitely looks like I will have a sleepless night tomorrow with one eye on this forum and one eye out the window!

[flyer]

So having done the rounds here are a few morsals.

One bloke in the Southwest thread had just packed his tent up and is threatening to go home. Another said ian fergusson on twitter said snow for wilts and glos.

Met office as per warning and to top it off Louise Lear on BBC online has the front sliding from Birmingham to IOW . To the right of this snow, to the left rain. BUT as final analysis firms up the whole caboodle may well shift 50 miles west.

At the moment it's heads or tails and the fat lady is still out. So pending the next round of chart outputs my advice is to go in search of the most promising forecast then you can't go wrong. :winky:

That and some serious lamping tomorrow.

GET those sleds out.

[Joneseye]

So here we are within 48 hours of a potential snow event and things are no less clear as to what will actually happen in lttle old Blighty. I guess this is what makes weather watching in this country so compelling? I mean we could live on a continental landmass such as North America or Europe where it is really a case of how much snow rather than will it/won't it.

A few things to note:

• Do we have embedded cold air - check.
  
• Do we have Precipitation - check.
  
• What happens when cold air and warm air collide? Fireworks - check.
  
• Do we believe what every single run of every single model tells us? check no.
  
• Does heavier precipitation increase the chances of snow - check.
  
• How often do we see a front pass through earler/later than expected? often
  

Based on experience of this since reading weather forums since 2004 & forming an opinion after analysing what has actually happened I remain cautiously optimistic on an all snow event.

[cobbettp]

Looking forward to snow here tomorrow, wonder how much we will get anybody know?

[TheHumph]

Looking forward to snow here tomorrow, wonder how much we will get anybody know?

We're right on the edge of the Met Office amber warning right now old son! Wouldn't mind if the frontal snow were 30-50 miles W as we stand.

[iowpompeylee]

I only believe in the met office...not all those hocus pocus charts......been let down time and time again with all those charts....the met office has just upgraded us from nothing yesterday (iow) to snow sat/sun in their warning....that's enough for me...I'm very happy

[cobbettp]

We're right on the edge of the Met Office amber warning right now old son! Wouldn't mind if the frontal snow were 30-50 miles W as we stand.

Yes we could do with a westwards shift in the whole system

[Joneseye]

Looking forward to snow here tomorrow, wonder how much we will get anybody know?

Rough rule of thumb is that 1mm of precipitation = 1cm of snow. You may here some people talk about an inch of rain (25.4mm) = a foot of snow. The Netweather forecast (based on the latest GFS run 06Z) will give you an indication of how much precip will fall.

For my location (RG14) 16mm of precipitation is expected to fall. It is all falls as snow to the levels expected then that would be 16cm of snow. *cue massive caveat

You could always check one of the higher resolution models such as the NAE, which tends to be a better predicter of amounts within 48 hours of the event.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Joneseye