Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

[Neilsouth]

These are my current estimates:

Pink box 10-15cm

Red Box 5-12cm

Orange box 3-6cm

Yellow box 1-5cm

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1-5? you are joking, the system is tracking east south east so many areas down that eastern side are at risk of the highest totals because you also have to factor in the stalling and how much closer these areas are to the much colder air.

You seriously think that parts of essex and all of kent are only going to get at the lowest end of 1cm?

Edited February 4, 2012 by Victor Meldrew

[Discombobulation Man]

Don't think so mate, aaaampshire will get plenty, especially north of the county

No it doesn't look right at all, NAE shows 11cm in places where he's got a 1cm yellow box, probably be better off looking at GFS predictions http://www.weatherweb.net/tvweather/uksnow24.gif

[Harsh Climate]

1-5? you are joking, the system is tracking east south east so many areas down that eastern side are at risk of the highest totals because you also have to factor in the stalling and how much closer these areas are to the much colder air.

You seriously think that parts of essex and all of kent are only going to get at the lowest end of 1cm?

Haha chill out bud, I did my map originaly for just yorkshire not paying too much attention to the south, thinking about it I would have most of that yellow zone somewhere between orange and red. Probably red for you guys in the south east and orange for the midlands.. Happy now?

3-8 cm for you victor meldrew

Edited February 4, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[danm]

South of the M4 now looking marginal with temperatures above 0C.

Maybe further west. In parts of the SE the temperature hasn't risen above -2c all day, particularly towards E Kent. London suburbs are still at 0c with well sub zero DP's.

[Met4Cast]

South of the M4 now looking marginal with temperatures above 0C.

Well that's not true.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Temperatures largely hovering around freezing or very slightly above, upper temperatures still more than cold enough for snowfall.

[nick sussex]

Nothing for Paris area today exept cold and a very blue sky but tomorrow midmorning we are at the extreme limit of some decent snow ( up to 5cm locally ) Météo-France says it is a matter of a few miles!!!east you get nothnig but cold ,west you may get 2 to 5cm;

Also where it snows sunday night and next few nights temps could plunge deep !!!!!

A nice Map of France all in yellow or orange!!!! with all the warnings a great east for very cold temps and west for snow and slippery roads Paris caught in betweem!!!!:

I think they're updating that at 4pm to include Pyrenees Atlantique and parts of the Midi P, towards Biarritz they're expecting snow then rain which could be a nightmare with that falling onto frozen surfaces.

Still some uncertainty regarding the eastwards extent of the snow, here its expected to remain as snow but to be honest if theres a threat of freezing rain I'd rather the whole thing just avoided me altogether.

As much as I love snow I'd rather lose out and not risk the freezing rain and inevitable power cuts! friends over in the Var had 25cms of snow the other day, which brought trees down onto power lines and left them without electricity with temps down to -10c!

Have to say I've found Meteo France to be poor recently with their quelques flocons forecast on two occasions in recent days turning into heavy snow! of course I'm not complaining but the UKMO are far better IMO.

Anyway bonne chance avec la neige demain.

[WhiteFox]

Maybe further west. In parts of the SE the temperature hasn't risen above -2c all day, particularly towards E Kent. London suburbs are still at 0c with well sub zero DP's.

Agree with that. Heathrow reporting dewpoint of -3 at 1350 as well as Farnborough and Odiham. A bit of a throwaway statement at this point to say looking marginal with temperatures above 0! Time will tell...

[saint]

Well that's not true.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Temperatures largely hovering around freezing or very slightly above, upper temperatures still more than cold enough for snowfall.

Plus, sun set is only a few hours away, at which point, temperatures will probably drop more,

[WhiteFox]

Well that's not true.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Temperatures largely hovering around freezing or very slightly above, upper temperatures still more than cold enough for snowfall.

Indeed. Dewpoints and upper temps (at the 925 level) are more important than surface temps right now. Plus with PPN not forecast until after dark evaporative cooling should take care of the surface.

Edited February 4, 2012 by WhiteFox

[Harsh Climate]

Just for you victor (Updated map)

Pink box 10-15cm

Red Box 5-12cm

Orange box 3-6cm

Yellow box 1-5cm

GREEN BOX 4-8cm :lol:

Edited February 4, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Discombobulation Man]

Just for you victor (Updated map)

Pink box 10-15cm

Red Box 5-12cm

Orange box 3-6cm

Yellow box 1-5cm

GREEN BOX 4-8cm :lol:

No still doesn't look right to me, is it based on any charts in particular or just guessing?

[Harsh Climate]

No still doesn't look right to me, is it based on any charts in particular or just guessing?

It's just my estimates from the data put in front of me. If anyone wants to scrutanise it, do so after the event

[Rollo]

After about an hour of light snow here with negligible accumulations we now have light rain ,temperature steady at 0.1c.

[Snowy Easterly]

i reckon the chilterns will get about 15 cm

[Paceyboy]

I love how this thread has turned into the Pennines/East England/SE thread and not including the midlands judging by the snow accumulation charts put up here.

I already have half a cm lying and people to my west have 1-2inches.

[Joe Sharmanator Sharman]

Don't know if 'will it snow in' questions are allowed here, so I'll not ask, but I will ask how much.

Spalding Lincs???

If not appropriate, please move.

[saintkip]

Just for you victor (Updated map)

Pink box 10-15cm

Red Box 5-12cm

Orange box 3-6cm

Yellow box 1-5cm

GREEN BOX 4-8cm :lol:

Still wrong, aaampshire will get at least 5 cm

[knocker]

The METO forecast position for the front at midday wasn't bad. It developed a slight wave that held it further west.

[Harsh Climate]

Still wrong, aaampshire will get at least 5 cm

We will see

Don't know if 'will it snow in' questions are allowed here, so I'll not ask, but I will ask how much.

Spalding Lincs???

If not appropriate, please move.

check my map ; )

[ARB]

I love how this thread has turned into the Pennines/East England/SE thread and not including the midlands judging by the snow accumulation charts put up here.

I already have half a cm lying and people to my west have 1-2inches.

I think it is probably very hard to be sure for central areas to be fair, l am pleasantly surprised to report that the temperature has not risen yet so there is hope, the gfs would suggest 10cm for here.

[Neilsouth]

GREEN BOX 4-8cm :lol:

Better , putting these types of maps during snow or storm events is asking to put your life on the line haha

[Snowy Easterly]

is it me or does the front look to be ahead of schedule ?

[Harsh Climate]

Better , putting these types of maps during snow or storm events is asking to put your life on the line haha

Haha quite true. If I thought someone had me down for too little snow I would also be heading for the kitchen knife draw ; )

[Biggin]

1-5 for me?? your having a bubble mate

[patrickshere]

Haha quite true. If I thought someone had me down for too little snow I would also be heading for the kitchen knife draw ; )

Feels like a bit of IMBY'ism in your drawings. Those places up north you've listed with big snowfalls are are unlikely IMO, and more likely to have rain after the original snow than many of the places further south you've listed with 1-5cm, etc.

In the south I'd expect more snow further west of where you've stated. The places in yellow are going to get a lot of snow, just might get some rain afterwards too, which would destroy accumulations. Chiltern hills especially I reckon there could be 15-20cm of the stuff.

Edited February 4, 2012 by mituozo