Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 2

[Cheggers]

What a glorious crisp clear winters morning, with bucket loads of [alex deakin]

Temp still below freezing.

[Hawesy]

Lovely sunny morning. No snow of course, but looks like a lovely day for a walk. +2.7c after an overnight low of -1.4c.

[Northernlights]

Cold crisp winters morning here, was -2c first thing at 6.00am but currently 0c with a few scattered clouds and sunny intervels with the last of the light snow showers fading over the Firth away to the NE. Will this be the last snow to be seen before October 2012 over the Firth on the hills to the north? I don"t think so.

As far as the rating for this winter goes based on its back door loo freezing abilities then this is the first year for 3 years that we have not had to drain the cistern water, switch its water supply off and put anti freeze screenwash down the S bend. It usually requires at least 2 nights in a row below -7c to achieve this something missing from this winter. Therefore a really average winter after the last 3 special ones ,will spring be average too?

View over the Firth to the north towards Tarbet Ness lighthouse this morning

Edited February 19, 2012 by Northernlights

[lorenzo]

From the freezer to the furnace in just a few days... !

In order to maintain interest I think the next period of weather watching will be around seeing exactly what kind of cold shots we can eek out of late Feb / March..

Couple of trends detailed here. Also a good Meto link here.

If it all quietens down might be time to do some reanalysis over the last few winters to find the variables that have made this winter a pain in the proverbials..

[A Winter's Tale]

From the freezer to the furnace in just a few days... !

In order to maintain interest I think the next period of weather watching will be around seeing exactly what kind of cold shots we can eek out of late Feb / March..

Couple of trends detailed here. Also a good Meto link here.

If it all quietens down might be time to do some reanalysis over the last few winters to find the variables that have made this winter a pain in the proverbials..

I'm actually looking forward to seeing some warmth as long as the sun is still there and there's no rain! At the same time, throughout March and into April I'll be looking out for as many meaningly cold spells that could spark some interest and bring some sunny but snowy wintry delights this Spring plus the sunshine and warmth and weather that Spring will bring as I'll be closely monitoring that too for my Scotland Weather Central Blog to see what the story of Spring 2012 is.

[thebigyin]

To be fair to the MetO, we drove north from Edinburgh to Aberdeen between 10.30am and 2.30pm, and south between 5.30pm and 9pm, and there was Nae Snaw in either direction, either falling or lying. In fact some particularly good star-gazing was possible because the skies were so clear at the services somewhere just south of Perth-ish.

Some flurries of big wet flakes while we were there (c.10 miles NW of Aberdeen), but nothing settled except on cars. I got a funny look as I leapt to wipe the snow off the car windows with my bare hands, but it was my only chance of feeling snow this winter, so...!

So from my angle, the whole main road in Eastern Scotland was bone-dry for pretty well the entire day. That's what the MetO said, and they were right... no snow, not even any ice. The car's temp gauge never went below +1.5C and was mostly 2-3C.

Yup, wasn't till about 9pm that there was a covering and temp at freezing here, and the back roads today are white and icy but not that bad (and think a warming was out for MO for this anyway). Main roads are now all black.

Snow melting/evaporating quickly now. Lovely walk with kids and dug out there. Snow cover between 1cm and 3cm depending on shelter. Pretty poor for a northerly but I'm taking it and don't think it will be the last! (based on nothing but previous experiences in march... Soon see!).

Ps looking forward to some warmth too next week, I must be getting old. At least it will make the next cold snap in march all the more striking.

Edited February 19, 2012 by thebigyin

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Chilly and sunny here. Wood across the road blanketed with snowdrops. Daffs pushing up.

Very spring-like and dare I say it - quite nice really.....

[Ruzzi]

Seems like the MET O may be pre-empting another cold spell for early march with some more wintry weather for us Scots. It would certainly be nice to have some hope and optimism for at least one more wintry blast, especially since this week is looking to be very mild indeed.

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Mar 2012 to Monday 19 Mar 2012:

During early to mid March, daytime temperatures may start off below normal across some northern areas, bringing an increased risk of some wintry weather. However, a recovery to near or above normal values seems likely. Nighttime temperatures follow a similar pattern, with frosts perhaps most likely at first. Further south, temperatures more likely to be around average, or perhaps slightly above, both by day and by night. Rainfall amounts look likely to continue below average in eastern and perhaps southern areas, but elsewhere average rainfall is most likely. Sunshine amounts should be above average in all areas.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 19 Feb 2012

[blitzen]

From the freezer to the furnace in just a few days... !

If it all quietens down might be time to do some reanalysis over the last few winters to find the variables that have made this winter a pain in the proverbials..

I wonder if one of the reasons could be the weakend state of the Gulf Stream/NAD? If the jet stream does indeed interact with/follow the Gulf Stream, then perhaps this disruption could have left us out of the cold so to speak? as Scotland is situated nearest to the normal flow? Add to that, the heightened volcanic activity mostly around Alaska, eastern Europe,Russia, Japan,'The Ring of Fire', even Africa and not discounting Mount Etna in Italy which started erupting last year and continues to splutter away this year. Also Australia recording it's coolest summer for decades. One cannot help wondering if there is a connection? Look at November/December 2010's winter for us here in the UK. Interesting that it followed on from the Apri/lMay eruption of the Icelandic volcano. Maybe something, maybe nothing but I wouldn't like to discount it.

IF Katla or one of the others up there blows this year, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Edited February 19, 2012 by Blitzen

[Cheggers]

Well after a cracking start to the day, it's now cold and overcast. Temp hovering around 4c with a gentle westerly wind.

[Cheggers]

I wonder if one of the reasons could be the weakend state of the Gulf Stream/NAD? If the jet stream does indeed interact with/follow the Gulf Stream, then perhaps this disruption could have left us out of the cold so to speak? as Scotland is situated nearest to the normal flow? Add to that, the heightened volcanic activity mostly around eastern Europe,Russia, Japan,'The Ring of Fire', even Africa and not discounting Mount Etna in Italy which started erupting last year and continues to splutter away this year. Also Australia recording it's coolest summer for decades. One cannot help wondering if there is a connection? Look at November/December 2010's winter for us here in the UK. Interesting that it followed on from the Apri/lMay eruption of the Icelandic volcano. Maybe something, maybe nothing but I wouldn't like to discount it.

I think if you dig around, a lot of previous climate shifts have been attributed to Volcanic activity, and meteors putting particles into the atmosphere. I do feel though that any forecasting around such events would be almost impossible due to never ending factors. Edited February 19, 2012 by Cheggers

[blitzen]

I think if you dig around, a lot of previous climate shifts have been attributed to Volcanic activity, and meteors putting particles into the atmosphere. I do feel though that any forecasting around such events would be almost impossible due to never ending factors.

Well, say for instance if Katla goes off this year and we get a rough winter again, I would say in the future, forecast wise for here at least, the probabilities could be raised? Nothing detailed of course but season wise? Certainly here the thing I have noticed since the last eruption has been nothing but constant cloud. Last summer was just awful here. Be interesting to see if Europe is cooler this year. If not, then that's that theory out of the window!! :lol:

[BleakMidwinter]

Dredging my unreliable memory here but the last decades of the 17th century saw appalling weather resulting on harvests failing and death rates estimated at between 1/3 and 3/4 of the population in different places right across Europe - I think the Black Isle became virtually depopulated iirc. People just starved en masse, or froze and starved in combination.

That's usually referred to as being probably the result of volcanic eruptions in the 1660s/ 1670s I think, in northern climes, maybe Iceland, maybe Greenland.

I don't think there's any doubt that extra-large eruptions can cause weather changes - and more often than not, along with spectacular sunsets, what's recorded is several years of grey, wet summers and grey-wet winters. General greyness and wetness. Which does kinda make you wonder how they saw all these fabulous sunsets if it was never sunny, but hey, who am I to nitpick...

[blitzen]

I think the Black Isle became virtually depopulated iirc.

It's certainly developed a unique species up there now then!! :lol:

[Cheggers]

It's certainly developed a unique species up there now then!! :lol:

And to think you were moving in a few days ago.

Just had a brief graupel shower, that had left a wee white blanket for a few minutes. Temp dropping, down to 2C

[Mr Frost]

Well nothing wintry of note for the next 2 weeks at least.

Lots of rain and wind about for the working week and then bog standard early spring weather.

When does everyone start getting excited about Winter?

1st November is my start date for that!

[Cheggers]

When does everyone start getting excited about Winter?

1st November is my start date for that!

Considering our summer just gone........ May.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Well, we think we've had a crap winter, what about this poor bloke:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...europe-17088173

Sweden snow: Man 'survives two months trapped in car'

Having said that, I imagine a few on here might have happily swapped places....

I guess a lesson for those keen on testing out their winter tyres?

EDIT. I wonder if it was Mondy...

Edited February 19, 2012 by scottish skier

[Northernlights]

A few flurries off the Firth this afternoon currentlly 1.9c, moderate SW wind and cloudy.

Edited February 19, 2012 by Northernlights

[blitzen]

Considering our summer just gone........ May.

Oh drat! ......and there was me looking forward to some welcome sunbathing!

And for all you cat lovers......

Edited February 19, 2012 by Blitzen

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Seems like the MET O may be pre-empting another cold spell for early march with some more wintry weather for us Scots. It would certainly be nice to have some hope and optimism for at least one more wintry blast, especially since this week is looking to be very mild indeed.

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Mar 2012 to Monday 19 Mar 2012:

During early to mid March, daytime temperatures may start off below normal across some northern areas, bringing an increased risk of some wintry weather. However, a recovery to near or above normal values seems likely. Nighttime temperatures follow a similar pattern, with frosts perhaps most likely at first. Further south, temperatures more likely to be around average, or perhaps slightly above, both by day and by night. Rainfall amounts look likely to continue below average in eastern and perhaps southern areas, but elsewhere average rainfall is most likely. Sunshine amounts should be above average in all areas.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 19 Feb 2012

ECM ensembles are showing a general downward trend when summer comes to an end around the 26th and we slip into autumn.

Edited February 19, 2012 by scottish skier

[lorenzo]

Latest CFS - nondescript for us...

[LomondSnowstorm]

I personally think the freakishly strong PV could work in our favour. Anything coming from the north or northeast will be even colder than usual for this time of year. It essentially prolongs the window of opportunity for winter, providing the synoptics work out favourably for us at some point before mid-March.

[Hairy Celt]

Lovely day to be out. Went up to Fyrish monument for a proper dose of white powder - and felt totally flipping on top of the world and indestructable.... More white powder was blowing around, could see there was still more coming down further west. Cold out tonight.

Still cold enough this morning for the powder to stick to things other than sinuses

Some of SS's (distant) colleagues out there perhaps?

And the monument itself - I thought today, a bit like our very own Easter Island statues...

Edited February 19, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[Cheggers]

I personally think that any cold that is still around will still skirt past us, and we will get only fleeting glances, but I am no expert.

In other news... A pound coin was thrown onto the pitch at Ibrox. Police are trying to determine whether it was a hostile act or a takeover bid....