The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[Snowstorm1]

18z GFS doesn't seem to want to know about it on Tues/Wed.

Im coming back in the morning or Im going to lose it. Poor Winter so far.

[Freezing-Point]

Im coming back in the morning or Im going to lose it. Poor Winter so far.

I feel the same. Even in the diabolical winter era of the 90's, we always got a few notherly topplers with a few brief snowcovers. My area has not had one snowcover this winter.

[NickR]

THe lightest of unexpected dustings overnight.

On the downside, as I was suggesting, the models have pulled away from a decent N'ly and certainly NE'ly this morning - or at least it's put back: this would, I think, lead to a large amount of snow for us:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png

But that's well into FI, of course.

Edited February 10, 2012 by NickR

[Continental Climate]

Well the north east snow shield is back in full working order after malfunctioning over the last couple of years. I t really has been poor and i thought winter would have a sting in its tail based on last nites UKMO, shows how wrong i was we will be lucky with an 18hr toppler at this rate. The MO thread is filled with the usual predictions of how things look good in ten days time but I'm not really buying that anymore. Looks like the south east contingent have done reasonably well and good luck to them, what makes it all the more frustrating is that if the siberian high had got 400 miles further north west then bingo and the UK would have had a truly legendary couple of weeks but as it stands very nondescript really.

[JP1972]

My mother has got some photos of me in 1979 standing at the top of a country road in Hepscott near Morpeth (just 200ft asl). The drifts are level with the tops of the hedges as far as you can see and I was sledging down them. I keep meaning to scan it and post it on here as its not been seen in that area since.

Better still, as a kid I lived in East Rainton near Houghton-le-Spring and many a time the snow drifts buried the back garden hedge in the mid-80's to early 90's.

To see several inches of snow fall per day wasn't exactly a rarity.

The fact is though, here in the NE we ideally need to see a North-Easterly which leads to Tyne & Wear streamers aka Winters 2009 and 2010 where snow showers merge to deliver an inch or two of snow at a time followed by clear skies allowing the coverings of snow to freeze and stick around throughout daylight.

Having lived in the NE now for the best part of 20 years of my life on and off, experience tells me that frontal snow and straight Easterlies are not the most conducive to cold and snow in the NE.

Happy to be shot down and proved wrong.

[Geordiesnow]

Big flakes mean wet and marginal snow, they don't indicate how heavy the snow is.

Thats not fully true IF, you can have an air temp of 0 and a dewpoint of 0 and get big fat flakes which accumulate very nicely especially if its heavy, its actually more nicer to look at on a viewing Point of View.

Of course, you can get the same intensity of snow but with smaller flakes and I think the snow accumulates just as quickly as it would if there was bigger flakes around.

Apart from that brief morning in December, we have not had any convective snowfall this winter which what dissapoints me the most really. I also can't remember the last time a proper stright Northerly occuring from the Arctic which slowly but surely topples into a NE'ly, must be a few years since such a set up has occured.

[damianslaw]

Thats not fully true IF, you can have an air temp of 0 and a dewpoint of 0 and get big fat flakes which accumulate very nicely especially if its heavy, its actually more nicer to look at on a viewing Point of View.

Of course, you can get the same intensity of snow but with smaller flakes and I think the snow accumulates just as quickly as it would if there was bigger flakes around.

Apart from that brief morning in December, we have not had any convective snowfall this winter which what dissapoints me the most really. I also can't remember the last time a proper stright Northerly occuring from the Arctic which slowly but surely topples into a NE'ly, must be a few years since such a set up has occured.

Early March 2001, late feb/early march 04 and early march 06 saw potent northerly/northeasterly airstream hit the NE. Lots of snow on all occasions.

UKMO is showing a classic evolution to a potent northerly later next week which may become a northeasterly - would be in line with Meto update which suggest a northerly/northeasterly airstream by next weekend and into the following week.

Back to today - we saw some snow which I was very surprised to see, we must have a layer of air colder than yesterday - as all we saw yesterday was freezing rain. This month has started off on a very wintry note indeed - it feels much bleaker than the cold spells of last winter and the winter before when sparking blue skies and abundant sunshine thanks to the arctic airstreams made for a much brighter feel. Recent days have been very bleak indeed - it feels like the depths of winter again.. like cold dark december days.

[Continental Climate]

Early March 2001, late feb/early march 04 and early march 06 saw potent northerly/northeasterly airstream hit the NE. Lots of snow on all occasions.

UKMO is showing a classic evolution to a potent northerly later next week which may become a northeasterly - would be in line with Meto update which suggest a northerly/northeasterly airstream by next weekend and into the following week.

Back to today - we saw some snow which I was very surprised to see, we must have a layer of air colder than yesterday - as all we saw yesterday was freezing rain. This month has started off on a very wintry note indeed - it feels much bleaker than the cold spells of last winter and the winter before when sparking blue skies and abundant sunshine thanks to the arctic airstreams made for a much brighter feel. Recent days have been very bleak indeed - it feels like the depths of winter again.. like cold dark december days.

I agree it has felt very dark and bleak the last few days with not much crisp winters sun but hardly any snow either. At least feb has felt a bit more wintry than dec or jan and for that i suppose we should be thankful.

Personally i am now in full spring mode and have accepted we will get no more snow this winter im a bit fed up of chasing the models for it to be honest. We were close this year to something special and rare this being a true easterly blast with upper temps of -15 or lower lol literally france about a hundred miles away got these temps we were so close.

God i hope we get a good summer this year, in fact what i want this year is proper defined seasons none of this 21oc in April B******S can we please have 21oC in june and not October, Lol.

[JP1972]

Early March 2001, late feb/early march 04 and early march 06 saw potent northerly/northeasterly airstream hit the NE. Lots of snow on all occasions.

UKMO is showing a classic evolution to a potent northerly later next week which may become a northeasterly - would be in line with Meto update which suggest a northerly/northeasterly airstream by next weekend and into the following week.

Back to today - we saw some snow which I was very surprised to see, we must have a layer of air colder than yesterday - as all we saw yesterday was freezing rain. This month has started off on a very wintry note indeed - it feels much bleaker than the cold spells of last winter and the winter before when sparking blue skies and abundant sunshine thanks to the arctic airstreams made for a much brighter feel. Recent days have been very bleak indeed - it feels like the depths of winter again.. like cold dark december days.

Fom a NE point of view I'm afraid this is what is commonly known as codswallop! I don't see a 'potent northerly' at all and i'm a newbie!!! As for 'may become a northeasterly' all I can say is let's see what will happen because I can't see it myself!

[NickR]

Fom a NE point of view I'm afraid this is what is commonly known as codswallop! I don't see a 'potent northerly' at all and i'm a newbie!!! As for 'may become a northeasterly' all I can say is let's see what will happen because I can't see it myself!

Yep. I'm afraid from the models this morning the N'ly looks dead in the water.

[Isolated Frost]

The best bet for snow showers inland in NE England is most certainly an arctic, not polar, airstream, ideally from the nne, ne or ene, with ne usually delivering most. East and north winds can deliver, what is needed is an unstable atmosphere, arctic northerlies usually possess that and so snow showers often fall on the coast, but generally arctic, not polar, easterlies are required for snow most times in the NE, unless we have a potent upper trough nearby.

Arctic is certainly the way forward imo. My ideal scenario would be blocking in the mid-atlantic ridging towards greenland, and a trough sinking from svalbard into the north sea to europe, allowing a potent northerly blast, becoming north-easterly on the northern flank of the trough. Then, the ridge builds eastwards towards Iceland and Svalbard, and eventually lows undercut the block to give a succession of cold north-easterly and easterly airstreams from the arctic.

if only

[Alex95]

NNW can deliver - late jan 2010 saw 15cm in Northumberland, 8cm here, and a few cm in Durham from a NNW wind.

[Isolated Frost]

Here is a question, what do you prefer...

A potent northerly blast, with a sinking trough (PV lobe) eventually leading to cold north-easterly/easterly winds on the northern flank of the trough (Dec 16-24 a close match)

or A low undercutting a strong ridging greenland block, giving less cold, but potentially snowier northerlies and north-easterlies with trough formation (Nov 24 - Dec 6 a close match)

?

[Snowstorm1]

Here is a question, what do you prefer...

A potent northerly blast, with a sinking trough (PV lobe) eventually leading to cold north-easterly/easterly winds on the northern flank of the trough (Dec 16-24 a close match)

or A low undercutting a strong ridging greenland block, giving less cold, but potentially snowier northerlies and north-easterlies with trough formation (Nov 24 - Dec 6 a close match)

?

2nd one as no melt here even when that happenned but both amazing!

Edited February 11, 2012 by Snowstorm1

[NickR]

Agreed.

Question is, will we get anything even clsoe to either of them in what's left of this miserable winter. All seems very FI - or not even there - on current models.

[Continental Climate]

Both of them sound pretty good to me but they are not being shown in the reasonable time frame all FI i think. Please dont say that current teleconnections favour one of these set ups as I have had about enough of that word for the time being

[JP1972]

Much as I hate to see 'winter's over' posts and I would normally be loathe to post such a thing but ...

... I can see the curtains being drawn as things stand. And what a woeful winter it has been for us in Newcastle and I suspect the immediate surrounding areas. A smattering of snow just over a week ago and a few frosts. Pony and trap!

Personally I'm looking forward to a wet summer and hopefully a better time of it next winter

Edited February 11, 2012 by JP1972

[damianslaw]

As anticipated its been another raw bleak mid winters type of day. Low cloud not moving anywhere and icy conditions prevaling - brrr indeed. However, it looks like the 2 week very cold spell is on its way out tomorrow thanks to milder air moving in from the NW - there should be a bit more wind about tomorrow which should help to slowly mix out the cold surface air. By Monday I am expecting a much more rapid thaw with the snow and ice dissapearing quite readily especially if the wind is strong and we see some bright spells from the NW.

Next week looks a very average sort of week for the time of year, feeling much milder than recently but also probably rather cloudy still but with much more wind and some rain at times with snow on higher ground. Next weekend has a good chance of wintry conditions returning with some decent snowfalls for higher ground once again and some colder uppers.

I'm expecting this thread and many most of the regionals to be very quiet again in the coming days - I wonder if the mods will keep them or revert back to merging them again - I think a N Eng thread at least will be just.

[Snowstorm1]

Mayswell leave them open now till the winter finishes tbh

[Isolated Frost]

I still believe this February has one cold spell looking at the 500hpa outlook- blocking and troughing in the right area so I think another cold spell is quite likely- whether snow will arrive is another matter.

This spring, I want a real spring, variety and sunshine please...

I'd like at least one potent northerly blast with a PV lobe travelling south and some blocking to the north-west. Preferably a good couple of days of sunshine and snow showers with convection very prominent.

I'd like a few polar maritime blasts- with strong winds and wintry showers, probably more on the sunny side in the NE.

I'd like a HP cell or two over us during it all, giving warm and sunny weather with temps in the late teens/early twenties, and light frosts at night.

I'd like an atlantic trough to sit west of the UK at times, teasing to move in, but simply gives us thunderstorms and heavy rain.

Some real variety and a real spring, with convection and sunshine maximised- not much to ask for! I'm sure some will agree... Oh and NO mild, cloudy west/south-westerlies and NO cold, cloudy east/north-easterlies!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The Tyne and Wear area is normally one of the snowiest regions of lowland England (and also snowier than most lowland parts of south-east Scotland) but there is always variability either side of the mean- and this winter is proving to be one of the few and far between examples of where this region largely misses out while many others get significant snowfalls. Frontal battleground events, with just few and far between exceptions, tend not to deliver much because if the front is aligned N-S most of the precipitation dies out over the Pennines, while if it is aligned W-E we get strong E or SE winds off the comparitively warm North Sea. A straight easterly is capable of bringing significant snowfalls (there were a few good examples during the 1993/94 season for instance as well as the extreme cases in January 1987 and February 1991) but it relies upon a large cold pool coming straight across from northern/eastern Russia- otherwise we tend to struggle.

I agree with the comments on arctic east to north-easterlies, which I often refer to as "easterlies with a 'northerly' source". I believe that for the North East during late February and early March an evolution similar to 24th November-2nd December 2010 would be most optimal for generating substantial snowfalls, as northern Scandinavia and Russia typically remain very cold and the continental source means less modification than a northerly or north-westerly, but still enough to generate numerous snow and hail showers over the North Sea. There was a near-approach in late February/early March 2001 which delivered heavy snowfalls inland overnight 27th/28th February and then heavy coastal snowfalls on the 2nd March, with exceptionally low minima on the night of the 2nd/3rd March, down to around -10C even in some coastal areas. For Cumbria, an unstable north-westerly type associated with a strong Greenland high and Scandinavian trough would probably be most optimal- perhaps take early March 2006 but place the Scandinavian trough a little further west.

As for spring, if you took Spring 1995 and then toned up the extent of convection during some of the showery arctic outbreaks (the only thing really missing from that particular spring at Cleadon was a day with thunder) and removed the rather grey easterly spell around the 22nd-27th April, you'd be left with pretty much my idea of an 'ideal' spring. I recall finding March '95 in particular one of the most enjoyable meteorological months of the last 20 years, although the cold spell in the first week could perhaps have done with being toned up a touch to stop those rapid thaws in sunshine in between showers.

[NickR]

The Tyne and Wear area is normally one of the snowiest regions of lowland England (and also snowier than most lowland parts of south-east Scotland) but there is always variability either side of the mean- and this winter is proving to be one of the few and far between examples of where this region largely misses out while many others get significant snowfalls. Frontal battleground events, with just few and far between exceptions, tend not to deliver much because if the front is aligned N-S most of the precipitation dies out over the Pennines, while if it is aligned W-E we get strong E or SE winds off the comparitively warm North Sea. A straight easterly is capable of bringing significant snowfalls (there were a few good examples during the 1993/94 season for instance as well as the extreme cases in January 1987 and February 1991) but it relies upon a large cold pool coming straight across from northern/eastern Russia- otherwise we tend to struggle.

I agree with the comments on arctic east to north-easterlies, which I often refer to as "easterlies with a 'northerly' source". I believe that for the North East during late February and early March an evolution similar to 24th November-2nd December 2010 would be most optimal for generating substantial snowfalls, as northern Scandinavia and Russia typically remain very cold and the continental source means less modification than a northerly or north-westerly, but still enough to generate numerous snow and hail showers over the North Sea. There was a near-approach in late February/early March 2001 which delivered heavy snowfalls inland overnight 27th/28th February and then heavy coastal snowfalls on the 2nd March, with exceptionally low minima on the night of the 2nd/3rd March, down to around -10C even in some coastal areas. For Cumbria, an unstable north-westerly type associated with a strong Greenland high and Scandinavian trough would probably be most optimal- perhaps take early March 2006 but place the Scandinavian trough a little further west.

As for spring, if you took Spring 1995 and then toned up the extent of convection during some of the showery arctic outbreaks (the only thing really missing from that particular spring at Cleadon was a day with thunder) and removed the rather grey easterly spell around the 22nd-27th April, you'd be left with pretty much my idea of an 'ideal' spring. I recall finding March '95 in particular one of the most enjoyable meteorological months of the last 20 years, although the cold spell in the first week could perhaps have done with being toned up a touch to stop those rapid thaws in sunshine in between showers.

But, in short, that's it for this winter.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It depends on what happens with these possible northerlies/north-westerlies at the end of this coming week, though it doesn't look promising regarding any lasting snow cover at low levels as shortwaves keep turning up to the north and producing a more modified airflow.

[JP1972]

And of it's NW'ly we've pretty much no chance of anything wintry in the NE, even a N'ly would be touch and go

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not necessarily- I remember some snow events in Cleadon from north-westerly winds although they were mostly short-lived. 28th February/1st March 1998, 16th February 2000, 23rd February 2002, 4th February 2003 all gave a snow cover here from north-westerlies. In the first week of March 1995 we even had snow showers from a south-westerly on the 2nd and 7th. But for lasting snow cover, yes, anything generally west of due north makes it unlikely on low ground to the east of the Pennines.