Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

This is too close to call for which parts of Southern England will see snow fall and how much. The Met are being very cagey again over the exact area and expect updates any time. Keep checking with the BBC forecasters and the Met for updates and expect changes.

I think the South East will get some light snow fall, perhaps just a cm at most as that front weakens.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Sussexwalker

[feb1991blizzard]

I would rather see freezing rain than normal rain though because at least that means its cold at surface level, i know it can be dangerous but at least it makes things interesting and its something we dont often get, better than mild gunge from the West which is what we will more than likely get for the 2nd half of feb and March.

[kold weather]

At the moment the area I have highlighted appears at main risk. This is based on the NAE/GFS 0/06Z runs.

The reason this area is highlighted is for two reasons. Firstly conditions appear condusive for snow rather than sleet/rain. The other reason is the models suggest a band of heavier precip is going to push SSW across Lincs/Wash.

Bound to change and I shall adjust the map accordingly with each run.

I think my own threat zone would be similar to that, though I'd expand the line a decent way south to include the NW home Counties as well as further SW to include SW Midlands and maybe far NE SW areas as well...

Still as you say there is indeed time for some changes, with actually some uncertainty still on the models, with some being wlel east and others being way west...

[pippamum888]

At the moment the area I have highlighted appears at main risk. This is based on the NAE/GFS 0/06Z runs.

The reason this area is highlighted is for two reasons. Firstly conditions appear condusive for snow rather than sleet/rain. The other reason is the models suggest a band of heavier precip is going to push SSW across Lincs/Wash.

Bound to change and I shall adjust the map accordingly with each run.

THANK YOU! That line is right around Northamptonshire! Decent snowfall for us I hope!

[TEITS]

I would rather see freezing rain than normal rain though because at least that means its cold at surface level, i know it can be dangerous but at least it makes things interesting and its something we dont often get, better than mild gunge from the West which is what we will more than likely get for the 2nd half of feb and March.

I hate freezing rain. I remember the freezing rain during 1996 and more recently in Dec 2009 and the absolute chaos it caused.

[keithlucky]

Yes, looks to me as if freezing rain could well be a major issue across much of N England in particular. It can be bad/dangerous enough when light and patchy, but get any intensity to it and it can be absolutely lethal... lets hope it does not turn out to be as bad as feared.

Been quoted quiet generally for 10to 15cm across E Midlands and S east again in the firing line.

[TEITS]

I think my own threat zone would be similar to that, though I'd expand the line a decent way south to include the NW home Counties as well as further SW to include SW Midlands and maybe far NE SW areas as well...

Still as you say there is indeed time for some changes, with actually some uncertainty still on the models, with some being wlel east and others being way west...

I do agree KW. I should of said the area I highlighted is at risk of the heaviest snowfall totals. Reason being is the area of precip coming off the N Sea is likely to be at peak intensity across this area before probably slightly weakening as it moves SSW.

[kold weather]

I hate freezing rain. I remember the freezing rain during 1996 and more recently in Dec 2009 and the absolute chaos it caused.

I've never really had Freezing rain. Its an exceptionally rare set-up for the UK so to get possibly 2 Freezing rain events for the NW in a week is pretty amazing really. More worried about this one as it looks like its got abit more substance to it.

[Wales123098]

The Met have SE Wales under the warning also, is there likely to be a fair bit of snow here?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

planned to drive from kingston to glasgow on thursday night.... thinking that i may need to postpone...

interested to hear peoples thoughts....

You won't see any snow in Jamaica

[kold weather]

The Met have SE Wales under the warning also, is there likely to be a fair bit of snow here?

Its a tough call, I certanly think there maybe snow for this region but any small shifts will make a big difference...

[Eugene]

TEITS/Kold, could you please give me your opinions for friday daytime of the potential for freezing rain or moderate to heavy snowfall for the northern cotswolds fringe area(south warwickshire, gloucestershire, oxfordshire border area?

Best i avoid friday and go for a walk there tomorrow daytime?

Edited February 8, 2012 by Eugene

[Snowmaggedon]

Any hope for a few cm's of snow in the North East of England? The Met Office has given my area (Middlesbrough) a yellow warning...

[feb1991blizzard]

I hate freezing rain. I remember the freezing rain during 1996 and more recently in Dec 2009 and the absolute chaos it caused.

I see what your saying TEITS but you could say the same about heavy snow and storms, even fog and extreme heat, severe weather of all types can cause chaos and even worse can be a killer.

[shedhead]

I would rather see freezing rain than normal rain though because at least that means its cold at surface level, i know it can be dangerous but at least it makes things interesting and its something we dont often get, better than mild gunge from the West which is what we will more than likely get for the 2nd half of feb and March.

That surprises me big time I must say. Freezing rain can be absolutely lethal, mainly because it often can't be seen and to the layman it's cause and effects are very poorly understood. However those who have been affected by it rarely forget the experience, so I'd be careful about what you wish for tbh.

[TEITS]

I've never really had Freezing rain. Its an exceptionally rare set-up for the UK so to get possibly 2 Freezing rain events for the NW in a week is pretty amazing really. More worried about this one as it looks like its got abit more substance to it.

From my own experience I don't think freezing rain is going to be a major issue simply because in my experience the surface temps need to be colder than what is modelled. The extreme events like in 1996/2009 is when we had temps well below freezing but heavy rain. So rather than a thin covering of ice my roads were 3 inches deep in ice!

[Snowstorm1]

Just in the warning in the southern half of northern england hope i get some Im near middlesbrough btw

[TEITS]

I see what your saying TEITS but you could say the same about heavy snow and storms, even fog and extreme heat, severe weather of all types can cause chaos and even worse can be a killer.

Trouble with freezing rain is the general public driving in their cars don't understand the concept of freezing rain. So when they are driving they just think its ordinary rain and this unfortunately catches many people out.

Anyway here is a look at what the 0Z GFS predicted. Im not using the 06Z GFS because its usually crap.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/02/08/basis00/ukuk/weas/12021100_0800.gif

[Weathizard]

The only freezing rain event I can remember her was December 2009 was lethal outside, It was a freezing rain to snow event as well so caused massive chaos I remember this distinctly as I was in a taxi home at the time when it started and of all places to be caught we were on a very steep hill, it was absolute mayhem took about half hour to get up in and a wad in taxi money! On to this event, cant see my area getting much from this as I'm quite near the coast but such is life living by the sea and coastal winds!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Weathizard

[Suburban Streamer]

From my own experience I don't think freezing rain is going to be a major issue simply because in my experience the surface temps need to be colder than what is modelled. The extreme events like in 1996/2009 is when we had temps well below freezing but heavy rain. So rather than a thin covering of ice my roads were 3 inches deep in ice!

hi teits i dont suppose u have any pics of the freezing rain event in 2009? i do realise the dangers of freezing rain but at the same time i find it pretty fascinating!!

[kold weather]

From my own experience I don't think freezing rain is going to be a major issue simply because in my experience the surface temps need to be colder than what is modelled. The extreme events like in 1996/2009 is when we had temps well below freezing but heavy rain. So rather than a thin covering of ice my roads were 3 inches deep in ice!

I think the risk is quite high for the NW, we've got upper temps of +1C and surface temp profiles around 0, its got the makings of a freezing rain event. The NMM also goes for Freezing rain before being replaced with normal rain later in the night and it nailed Saturday.

[Snowmaggedon]

Just in the warning in the southern half of northern england hope i get some Im near middlesbrough btw

Lets hope and pray the snow cloud stalls over Middlesbrough for a few hours lol

[Snowstorm1]

Lets hope and pray the snow cloud stalls over Middlesbrough for a few hours lol

for 24 hours hopefully! Im from thornaby 1m or so outside boro

[Summer Sun]

Lets hope and pray the snow cloud stalls over Middlesbrough for a few hours lol

Latest BBC forecast's suggest freezing rain with the snow resvered for further south.

The sooner mild weather returns the better freezing rain is way to dangerous.

[Aaron]

Speak for yourself Gavin.