Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[Thedemoncleaner]

Conflicting signs for Leeds. Am i right in thinking the above NAE would suggest snow rather than rain for Leeds?

[karlos1983]

alex131297

I didn't say we needed it, it just looks very impressive, as a weather lover in general, not just a cold lover. But in the short term, hopefully that will inject some colder conditions into my area do we see snow instead of rain this time round!

Cheers

Karl

[shedhead]

To my mind freezing rain is looking more and more likely given the upper temp profile, could be a major problem in a number of places.

[Weather-history]

Its a pity we can't see more of these types of charts, they would given an indication for snow or freezing rain

[TEITS]

Very good GFS for E Anglia.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120208/12/36/prectypeuktopo.png

[alex131297]

alex131297

I didn't say we needed it, it just looks very impressive, as a weather lover in general, not just a cold lover. But in the short term, hopefully that will inject some colder conditions into my area do we see snow instead of rain this time round!

Cheers

Karl

Argh Thanks

[Beasterly]

Looking at the NAE amounts suggest between 1-6cm of snow. Have to be honest I don't know where the BBC were getting 20cm from!

Probably from persistent snowfall

[kold weather]

Strong wording there, KW - "likely" to be freezing rain.

I'm guessing the precipitation would "likely" fall in the form of beautiful snow over eastern England and the south-east, correct?

Will be interested to read your analysis should the model output continue to indicate snowfall for many parts of the country.

Hey, I DON'T want ANY snow for the SE, I've got an important trip to Paris this weekend, so believe me I'd be happy if the models shifted westwards!!

Anyway I made a slight mistake there, I meant to put in NW parts of the Midlands...I don't quite know why I missed that out...however even the 12z GFS suggests a freezing rain-snow event is possible...

Snow for the mpost of the Midlands, western parts will be marginal. Central locations look decent though...

TEITS, yeah I've not a foggy where that 20cm figure came from but I suppose its possible in areas right on the margins of the milder uppers, especially if the front does stall like the GFS suggests...

[Suburban Streamer]

Mind you i dont think i rate the NAE, im not sure if they have done anything to it but this winter it has been veryfying poorly, i like the look of that NMM, the resolution looks superb, i really hope my financial situation improves for next winter, i would really like to get Netweather Extra.

nae was excellent for the saturday event. it was very similar to nmm

[danm]

Hey, I DON'T want ANY snow for the SE, I've got an important trip to Paris this weekend, so believe me I'd be happy if the models shifted westwards!!

Anyway I made a slight mistake there, I meant to put in NW parts of the Midlands...I don't quite know why I missed that out!!

Snow for the mpost of the Midlands, western parts will be marginal. Central locations look decent though...

TEITS, yeah I've not a foggy where that 20cm figure came from but I suppose its possible in areas right on the margins of the milder uppers, especially if the front does stall like the GFS suggests...

Hey, don't wish away the snow for the SE!

[feb1991blizzard]

nae was excellent for the saturday event. it was very similar to nmm

Not for the North, it over exaggerated the size of the snow area, it suggested places like Liverpool were going to have a decent covering and all that happened was freezing rain there.

[kold weather]

Hey, no worries. Not like I was implying you were being biased or anything....

Enjoy your trip.

I'd imagine your probably as far NW as I'd want to be to feel confident of snow, any further north and uppers increase slightly more above freezing and once you get to that level IMO that is where the threat of Freezing rain really kicks in...

PS, as for the SE, I do think it WILL: fall as snow, but I don't think amounts are going to be that great, as I said in the main regional thread for the area, I don't think we are anywhere near the bullseye this time, but any precip that does fall will be snow due tio bein that bit closer to the real cold air to our SE/E.

[MisfitDog3]

I presume the 20cm's is from a stalled front scenario. From the various snowfall projections over the last 12 hours, plus evidence of the block doing its thing, you can see that occurring quite easily! Won't know who is going to get mullered by this until the event is practically on top of us I suppose. The MO don't usually stick their neck out unless they see something pretty definite.

[Suburban Streamer]

Not for the North, it over exaggerated the size of the snow area, it suggested places like Liverpool were going to have a decent covering and all that happened was freezing rain there.

fair enough, i was talking very much from an IMBY point of view which i should have mentioned!

[TEITS]

Just want to clarify tomorrow.

At the moment it appears two areas of snow are going to move SSW. We have one area across N England and another out in the N Sea. This can be seen on the chart below.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs303.gif

The band of precip is likely to take a while to clear the W but whether this falls as snow or rain is uncertain at the moment. What could happen is rain turns to snow as it clears SW.

[Cheese Rice]

Yeah the Meto would be going for a stalled front, something the GFS/UKMO goes for. NAE isn't interested at all which is making the situation quite confusing.

[Eugene]

Bitterly cold night over the snowfields of central england friday night

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn6610.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn6617.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn7217.png

-3C at midday saturday :o :o :o

[paul tall]

Just in the warning in the southern half of northern england hope i get some Im near middlesbrough btw

Freezing rain for us Snowy!

[Summer Sun]

Lets hope and pray the snow cloud stalls over Middlesbrough for a few hours lol

This was the BBC forecast just before 4

[shedhead]

I think the biggest headache across the next 48-72hrs will be the slackness of the flow, especially over England and Wales. Any changes are only likely to occur very slowly, with the surface cold probably being very hard to displace away from western coastal fringes. GFS actually suggests this area might even see some snow during the weekend.

[Cheese Rice]

RAMP

This is why the meto is forecasting 10cm+ . PPN accumulation going for 30MM over central nothern England, equating to 30cm of snow!

[TEITS]

Yeah the Meto would be going for a stalled front, something the GFS/UKMO goes for. NAE isn't interested at all which is making the situation quite confusing.

I can understand the precip amounts because like I say the front will take a while to clear the W. However I cannot see all that precip falling as snow across W areas which is why im puzzled at the 20cm predictions. The ideal conditions for snowfall are towards the E but here between 1-6cm is predicted.

One thing I will add is the NAE over estimates extent of snow and the GFS tends to underestimate.

[ITSY]

slight upgrade from BBC on Matt Taylors last forecast for Yorks? Gunna be a very marginal affair for us in the Leeds/Bradford department, with the latest GFS run giving us a mixture of rain, freezing rain and snow! This is one of those situations where we could get a lot or none at all - and we won't know until its raining/snowing/icing over. BBC breakfast and the local radio in Leeds suggested that we could get 20cms (!) - everyone was talking about it in the hairdresser's earlier!

[Cheese Rice]

This was the BBC forecast just before 4

Thanks for posting.

Looks identical to the GFS/UKMO.

NAE got it wrong?

[kold weather]

RAMP

This is why the meto is forecasting 10cm+ . PPN accumulation going for 30MM over central nothern England, equating to 30cm of snow!

Higher ground probably could get close to the 20cms figure if that is anywhere close, especially as that probably would be all snow away from the NW...

It also backs up my idea of 2-3cms for the SE quite nicely.