Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[Snowstorm1]

Latest BBC forecast's suggest freezing rain with the snow resvered for further south.

The sooner mild weather returns the better freezing rain is way to dangerous.

This system 50miles shift and where in snow heaven so close to call...

[Eugene]

Saturday could be an ice day in parts of the south midlands and especially the SE, sunday slightly warmer but still cold, not sure where this mild weather is cant see any in the reliable timeframe for us midlanders and SE'ers.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Eugene

[Cheese Rice]

The Met Office warning sums up the areas most at risk imo

Looking at every model we see

UKMO- The band stalls across Yorkshire and North West England while intensifying and spreading south with its northern most extent staying the same (Y & NW England). 850's are marginal at -2 to -1. I suspect there will be surface cold spreading in from continental Europe equating to a higher risk of snow.

ECM- Less emphasize on stalling, with the front tracking south then south west, snow likely across the whole of Yorkshire, Lincolnhsire, Midlands part of South West England/South Wales as it pushes through. 850s are fairly decent ranging from -2/-5

GFS- Front again stalling across the spine of England, 850s are not supportive of snowfall. However I would expect surface cold from Europe meaning widespread snowfall is likely as the cold undercuts the front.

I'll reserve judgment on the NAE till the next run as it is nothing like the UKMO/ECM/GFS which are broadly similar.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Snowmaggedon]

This system 50miles shift and where in snow heaven so close to call...

Hopefully it will shift West on the day, i still think regardless of the shift, we might still get some luck....

[Timmytour]

I see what your saying TEITS but you could say the same about heavy snow and storms, even fog and extreme heat, severe weather of all types can cause chaos and even worse can be a killer.

I love weather extremes, especially of the cold and stormy type, and understand why there would be a preference for experiencing freezing rain rather than normal. And I also know that the weather we have is damn all to do with what I want or don't want!

But I can also understand the concern with freexing rain.....it's the visibility of it that's the problem. With all the other types of severe weather you know what's there and how to handle it. For many, freezing rain is a rare experience whose dangers are not obvious

[Biggin]

Precip on current radar hitting a brickwall SW Approaches ??

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[syed2878]

just checked the met website to check the state of play. The met have yello snow warning for wm from 1600.hours thursday to 23.59 friday. Upto 10cm could fall. I hope this snow cover if we get it in brum lasts mor than 24hours on the ground. Last week's melted by sunday night.

[karlos1983]

That brick wall of the west looks very impressive on radar, clear visual of this BLOCK if you needed one.

[alex131297]

That brick wall of the west looks very impressive on radar, clear visual of this BLOCK if you needed one.

sorrty why do we need block?

[Pixel]

That brick wall of the west looks very impressive on radar, clear visual of this BLOCK if you needed one.

certain does.. have a look here also:

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

[feb1991blizzard]

I love weather extremes, especially of the cold and stormy type, and understand why there would be a preference for experiencing freezing rain rather than normal. And I also know that the weather we have is damn all to do with what I want or don't want!

But I can also understand the concern with freexing rain.....it's the visibility of it that's the problem. With all the other types of severe weather you know what's there and how to handle it. For many, freezing rain is a rare experience whose dangers are not obvious

True, and i could eat my words as i may well be on the motorway when it comes!. This is another reason the Met office warning system is flawed in my opinion, they have given a heck of a lot of warnings this winter for a winter which has had little severe weather, people will now look at that warning (particularly because its only a yellow) and be very dismissive of it, if this upcoming event has any reasonable likelyhood that there will be a solid ice cover over main roads, then based on the amber warning for saturday (when the 3 inches of snow caused few problems around here), tommorows should be upgraded to a red warning.

[Heisenberg]

Liam Duttons latest blog indicates the snow will also cover as far south as the home counties. What do you guys think? Am I in the line for some more of the white gold ?

[TEITS]

Latest NAE at +30hrs.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis12/ukuk/prty/12020918_0812.gif

[Matty23]

Doesnt look good for us in west midlands looks like good old,rain lets hope it moves,west

[kold weather]

Lighjt-moderate snow gets very close to Lobdon on this run. Main action to the SE of a line from the Humber through to the SW, indeed that ends up also being the sanow line on this run as well...

Precip looks a smidge further west IMO...

PS, Midlands likely would be Freezing rain...

[TEITS]

NAE at +36.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis12/ukuk/prty/12021000_0812.gif

Slight shift W on this run which is what the 06Z GFS did.

[Weathizard]

Interesting NAE update for my area, even on the coast looks decent

[feb1991blizzard]

NAE at +36.

http://expert-images...021000_0812.gif

Slight shift W on this run which is what the 06Z GFS did.

Get in!!!!

I have to say freezing rain would still be a poor substitute for snow though so i would love some more big shifts west so any rain gets dumped in the irish sea.

[danm]

NAE 12z is a smidge further west, but shows a larger area getting some decent snowfall.

[kold weather]

NAE at +36.

http://expert-images...021000_0812.gif

Slight shift W on this run which is what the 06Z GFS did.

Interestingly though more snow for the SE, especially for locations to the west of London...

[Matty23]

South shropshire may get frezzing rain then snow after 30 plus hours on the NAE Yay still needs a shift west ti.be sure

[Jimmyh]

that NAE @36 looks interesting shifted it a bit there

[Wales123098]

Im liking the NAE for here:O

[feb1991blizzard]

Mind you i dont think i rate the NAE, im not sure if they have done anything to it but this winter it has been veryfying poorly, i like the look of that NMM, the resolution looks superb, i really hope my financial situation improves for next winter, i would really like to get Netweather Extra.

[TEITS]

Interestingly though more snow for the SE, especially for locations to the west of London...

Looking at the NAE amounts suggest between 1-6cm of snow. Have to be honest I don't know where the BBC were getting 20cm from!