Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[MKN]

NAE 18z run hasn't come out yet?

you can view the precip accumulation charts as soon as it starts to come out, 4/5mm west of leicester. 1mm to the east during the next 48hours according to the 18z

[Heisenberg]

Ian Ferguson has tweeted again and is now indicating that the area affected will be a little further west.....definitely a trend to send if further west all the time....I reckon it could end up in Ireland at this rate!

Hi TT, so are we now looking unlikely to get this event?

[Brum Watcher]

New analysis frm UKMO Ch Forecaster keeps bias of main snow threat W Mids, E Wales into W Country, esp Glos, Wilts, Bristol, B&NES, N/NE Som

From Fergie on twitter

[Bristawl Si]

Latest tweet from Ian F 2 mins ago -

New analysis from UKMO chief forecaster keeps bias of main snow threat W Midlands, E Wales into West Country, esp Glos, Wilts, Bristol, Bath & NE Somerset, North Somerset

Edit: Brum watcher beat me to it!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Bristle boy

[kold weather]

As others have said the UKMO products have trended west...but they've got a habit of being too far west in the past...Jan 2010 was the classic example that was brought up before and I can think of MANY other times thats the case...

Still I'm pleased to see it stay away from the SE if that happens, got more important things going on than snow Friday-Sunday.

[Timmytour]

Hi TT, so are we now looking unlikely to get this event?

i think we've moved in 24 hours from the potential to get a good dump....through getting a few cms....through getting a dusting....and now I don't think we are in line for anything

[Heisenberg]

what is ian F's twitter @ name please?

i think we've moved in 24 hours from the potential to get a good dump....through getting a few cms....through getting a dusting....and now I don't think we are in line for anything

Now thats just a total bummer. . however, what ive learnt is. Things can change at short notice when trying to track a snow event....not gonna hold my breath tho

[nwales]

This is the 3rd time in 2 weeks that east Wales has been mentioned in the forecasts in relation to snow. Had a dusting for a few hours on Saturday and a few sleety flakes the weekend before. Not getting my hopes up!

[feno13]

what is ian F's twitter @ name please?

Now thats just a total bummer. . however, what ive learnt is. Things can change at short notice when trying to track a snow event....not gonna hold my breath tho

google ian fergurson twitter

[Bristawl Si]

what is ian F's twitter @ name please?

@fergieweather

Regards

[MKN]

GFS much further west also tonight.

[Paul]

Don't forget you can follow the band of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow as it moves south on our new (free) weather radar:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

[Brad]

Until its actually falling, I'll take everything with a pinch of salt

[TEITS]

Makes you wonder how much you can rely on these models.

Check the latest NAE for 9pm and then go and look at the radar!

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/prec/12020821_0818.gif

[Long haul to mild]

It looks like this event won't be affecting this part of the world this time. I for one am not sorry as snow over the top of the compacted ice we currently have would not be much fun! I would actually prefer a thaw so I can get back on my bike or even just walk across my road again without fearing a broken bone!

I hope that people who want snow and didn't get it last weekend get some out of this event.

[Pixel]

Until its actually falling, I'll take everything with a pinch of salt

best place for that is on your path by the looks of it (-:

[MKN]

Makes you wonder how much you can rely on these models.

Check the latest NAE for 9pm and then go and look at the radar!

http://expert-images...020821_0818.gif

Much further east there? now where does that leave us lol, all the models as of 6pm have moved almost a 100miles further west yet at just 4hours after the NAE's prediction is 100miles out

[TEITS]

I think this from Ian F is very enlightening (in the sense of cause of modelling differences)

Only place id be comfortable sitting in right now is southern midlands...even further north in the midlands has the risk of marginality

SK

Interesting because in my opinion the reason for the shift W is due to the HP to our E being modelled further W with every run. This has happened on every GFS run today.

[feno13]

Makes you wonder how much you can rely on these models.

Check the latest NAE for 9pm and then go and look at the radar!

http://expert-images...020821_0818.gif

Hi just checked the radar on will it rain today ,looks spot on .

[Heisenberg]

It looks like this event won't be affecting this part of the world this time. I for one am not sorry as snow over the top of the compacted ice we currently have would not be much fun! I would actually prefer a thaw so I can get back on my bike or even just walk across my road again without fearing a broken bone!

I hope that people who want snow and didn't get it last weekend get some out of this event.

Sort of agree. As much as i love the snow, the ice we still have on the pavements and driveways are a nightmare.More snow on top would be a bit of a mare. So while I love to watch it fall, im gonna declare myself out!!

[kold weather]

Yes a good deal further west on the GFS, I'm liking the SW Midlands at the moment based on recent trends. Front more or less grinds to a halt on Friday morning and thus suggests somewhere between 10-15cms if that run came off, esp saw from B'ham down to maybe the NE part of the SW...also SE Wales would do well.

Temps a little less marginal as well.

[saintkip]

Yes a good deal further west on the GFS, I'm liking the SW Midlands at the moment based on recent trends. Front more or less grinds to a halt on Friday morning and thus suggests somewhere between 10-15cms if that run came off, esp saw from B'ham down to maybe the NE part of the SW...also SE Wales would do well.

Temps a little less marginal as well.

Can someone post the latest nae charts, the ones I'm looking at suggest the whole of England will see snow but thats not what I'm hearing, just a couple of charts would be splendid as I'm probably looking at the wrong charts.

[TEITS]

Can someone post the latest nae charts, the ones I'm looking at suggest the whole of England will see snow but thats not what I'm hearing, just a couple of charts would be splendid as I'm probably looking at the wrong charts.

Here we go the NAE takes the precip further W.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/prec/12021000_0818.gif

[Long haul to mild]

Sort of agree. As much as i love the snow, the ice we still have on the pavements and driveways are a nightmare.More snow on top would be a bit of a mare. So while I love to watch it fall, im gonna declare myself out!!

Yes, me too! It can all melt and then maybe this time next week, a nice fresh fall (during the day this time please so I don't have to stay up to stupid o'clock to see it!).

The westward trend since the 12z runs is quite remarkable; GFS originally had this hitting EA square on but all changed now......

[Staffordshire]

Just remember the se looked a great spot for the weekend and turned out to be a pretty rubbish event...