Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[Stu_London]

i also think it will be further east that models and media are predicting. It's going to have to do one hell of a swivel to miss London and most of the south east based on current position and tragectory. Further west will get plenty - however not sure how much of that will be snow

[Zakos]

ECM did an ok job, most models did really. NMM did the best overall with regards to precip types, though both the NAE and the NMM did a good job.

Tonught there probably isn't much difference between the /NAE and the NMM other than the NMM develops a stronger system which in turn causes a slightly larger milder zone at 850hpa and turns the snow on the NAE into rain on the NMM in the W.MIdlands...

thanks kold. what are your thoughts for my area?, you said your confident on central mids, but my area is so hard to define, being on the boundary of three regions

Edited February 8, 2012 by Zakos

[Jayfromcardiff]

West will be best tomorrow night and into friday mark my words, and on that note goodnight.

[Mark Burton]

i also think it will be further east that models and media are predicting. It's going to have to do one hell of a swivel to miss London and most of the south east based on current position and tragectory. Further west will get plenty - however not sure how much of that will be snow

Interesting to note that all of these predictions of the snow being further East are from people living in more E/SE Regions :lol:

[Wales123098]

I bet by tomorrow morning the whole ppn forcast has changed again! My location along with TEIS is right on the Eastern snowline, it could go either way for us - it's a nowcast for me.

Last weekend was so good for us in the East, it looks like it's back to business as usual for the Fens!

Would be nice if the west had a bit of snow this week yes? Last weekend I had about 1-2cm of snow and melting within an hour of it falling....

[Mark Burton]

thanks kold. what are your thoughts for my area?, you said your confident on central mids, but my area is so hard to define, being on the boundary of three regions

A difficult one - fingers crossed.

[Stu_London]

Interesting to note that all of these predictions of the snow being further East are from people living in more E/SE Regions :lol:

whilst that may be true it is based on actual obdservations

id actually prefer it not to snow during the working week

[Mark Burton]

Would be nice if the west had a bit of snow this week yes? Last weekend I had about 1-2cm of snow and melting within an hour of it falling....

Totally agree - I have alot of family in Bristol, they missed out too. Good luck.

[Stoxs]

got some real concerns for west of exeter unless you have a decent bit of height.

think there will be some moaning friday in these threads!!

Not sure where peeps find this info .

This event same as last weeks will be marginal in many places, could well be a fine line between rain and no precipitation with a bit of snow in between.

The placing of this fine line is down to watching the radar now, not sure with the way this front twists and turns through the country these models will cope.

Lamposts at the ready folks!!

[Wales123098]

The MetOffice generally know what their talking about and have more high res models than we have access to. Their warning lines are for the west and midlands not the SE. If they thought there was a chance of the snow going in to the London area they'd have an early warning of it just incase, like they did for this area of the UK last weekend.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

WeatherWeb have the Midlands down for 12+ cm. I hope so but I'm expecting about half that..

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=253

First post. Great forum. Been glued to it the last couple of weeks.

[Wales123098]

I'm not trying to create an argument here but for the members in the SE and London area which is pretty much most NW members can we please not be biased. I'm seriously getting confused to what's actually happening.

[kold weather]

The MetOffice generally know what their talking about and have more high res models than we have access to. Their warning lines are for the west and midlands not the SE. If they thought there was a chance of the snow going in to the London area they'd have an early warning of it just incase, like they did for this area of the UK last weekend.

I agree, however I've seen quite a few times the Met Office being too far west, so we'll have to wait and see.

Anyway very soon its going to be a nowcast set-up, I'd be more confident as I said in C.Midlands, think unless there are big shifts west or east you guys will get good snows. I also think the W.Midlands should do well, especially SW Midlands...

[i luv snow]

The MetOffice generally know what their talking about and have more high res models than we have access to. Their warning lines are for the west and midlands not the SE. If they thought there was a chance of the snow going in to the London area they'd have an early warning of it just incase, like they did for this area of the UK last weekend.

Can't disagree with what you're saying but there's many occasions they have got it wrong and snow has ended up in areas without warnings and not in those areas with warnings, that's snow for you! This is Deffo a case of snow casting for those in east midland especially as ppn is currently further east than generally progged!

Edited February 8, 2012 by i luv snow

[J10]

ECM did an ok job, most models did really. NMM did the best overall with regards to precip types, though both the NAE and the NMM did a good job.

Tonught there probably isn't much difference between the /NAE and the NMM other than the NMM develops a stronger system which in turn causes a slightly larger milder zone at 850hpa and turns the snow on the NAE into rain on the NMM in the W.MIdlands...

NMM considerably underestimate snow last week here 4 hrs of snow and they said rain all the way.

[Zakos]

A difficult one - fingers crossed.

thanks,they will be!!

And yes the westerners are saying it wont change, the easterners are saying it will! it is quite funny when this happens.

and yes good point wales123098 cant see it making it down to london. but the east mids still have a good chance and hence are within the warning area

[TEITS]

whilst that may be true it is based on actual obdservations

Yes and very soon Carlisle will be experiencing freezing rain which according to the NAE isn't supposed to arrive until 6am. :lol:

The more you look at the radar the more you realise how wrong the NAE is. Even at 10pm Edinburgh were reporting freezing rain.

[TEITS]

I'm not trying to create an argument here but for the members in the SE and London area which is pretty much most NW members can we please not be biased. I'm seriously getting confused to what's actually happening.

Im not being biased because im backing up my posts with the charts/radar.

I don't understand why some can't see what is in front of their eyes. You only have to compare the radar with the NAE to see what im on about. When it comes to forecasting events which are within 24hrs the radar has always been one of the best forecasting tools.

Latest radar update is even more amusing. The band of precip is expanding nicely out in the N Sea.

[kold weather]

I've just been looking at the evolution of the set-up and my word is it complicated, the front comes down and another front seems to develop further west and south. At the same time a weak low/shortwave forms.

The further north this featuresa forms, the further east the threat moves and the greater chance of that warm sector being a problem. HUGE differences on the NAE and the NMM. Anyway this feature eventually causes the front to pivot around it. I'd not like to be a forecaster, its a tricky one thats for sure...much more complicated than the weekends events.

I'd personally plump for something closer to the NAE...however I'd like to see how it evolves over the next 6hrs and see what the pressure does...

[Wales123098]

Im not being biased because im backing up my posts with the charts/radar.

I don't understand why some can't see what is in front of their eyes. You only have to compare the radar with the NAE to see what im on about. When it comes to forecasting events which are within 24hrs the radar has always been one of the best forecasting tools.

Latest radar update is even more amusing. The band of precip is expanding nicely out in the N Sea.

But who said the metoffice are basing their forecasts on the NAE? Im on about the metoffice warnings and time and time again, Londoners and people in the SE which is the majority of members on NW are confusing people else where in the UK, even some of the experienced forecasters. It's not just people in the SE but in the main it is. Instead of constant hope casting please can we have accurate predictions based on the current charts, radar. Personally I believe the metoffice, they we're spot on last weekend, they put my part of Wales in the warning zones just in case as there was a chance of disruptive snowfall here if there was a shift, they haven't done that for London so for me that suggests its highly unlikely to be in London and SE. This constant SE bias has been bugging me for a while

Edited February 9, 2012 by Wales123098

[Zakos]

Im not being biased because im backing up my posts with the charts/radar.

I don't understand why some can't see what is in front of their eyes. You only have to compare the radar with the NAE to see what im on about. When it comes to forecasting events which are within 24hrs the radar has always been one of the best forecasting tools.

Latest radar update is even more amusing. The band of precip is expanding nicely out in the N Sea.

just saw this aswell, gfs also looks wrong aswell. surely this must mean east mids now more likely to see significant snow?

[guvnor22002]

Yes and very soon Carlisle will be experiencing freezing rain which according to the NAE isn't supposed to arrive until 6am. :lol:

The more you look at the radar the more you realise how wrong the NAE is. Even at 10pm Edinburgh were reporting freezing rain.

Not sayin you are gonna be wrong regards carlise but if you look at radar since 5pm the southern limit hasnt moved south at all the westward progresion is little further west but is rather light think it wont start a southern move till late morning but we will see

[steveinsussex]

I've just been looking at the evolution of the set-up and my word is it complicated, the front comes down and another front seems to develop further west and south. At the same time a weak low/shortwave forms.

The further north this featuresa forms, the further east the threat moves and the greater chance of that warm sector being a problem. HUGE differences on the NAE and the NMM. Anyway this feature eventually causes the front to pivot around it. I'd not like to be a forecaster, its a tricky one thats for sure...much more complicated than the weekends events.

I'd personally plump for something closer to the NAE...however I'd like to see how it evolves over the next 6hrs and see what the pressure does...

fantasticly informative post

thanks

[Shezale coventry]

Anyone think coventry in a good postion for snow?? On this upcoming event

[TEITS]

But who said the metoffice are basing their forecasts on the NAE? Im on about the metoffice warnings and time and time again, Londoners and people in the SE which is the majority of members on NW are confusing people else where in the UK, even some of the experienced forecasters. It's not just people in the SE but in the main it is. Instead of constant hope casting please can we have accurate predictions based on the current charts, radar. Personally I believe the metoffice, they we're spot on last weekend, they put my part of Wales in the warning zones just in case as there was a chance of disruptive snowfall here if there was a shift, they haven't done that for London so for me that suggests its highly unlikely to be in London and SE. This constant SE bias has been bugging me for a while

At no stage have I said the W won't see snow or have I suggested the SE is going to see heavy snow. All im saying is the radar differs to the model output. Also what happened last weekend has nothing to do with this event.

Chill out because come tomorrow morning when we look at the radar we shall have a better idea.