Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[summer blizzard]

My eyes could be deceiving me but it looks like undercutting is taking place on the east coast if you compare the 08:30, 09:30 and 10:30 radar images.

[legritter]

hope everyone gets something either today tomorrow or next week .wind in west now ,but still minus ,just had a look at sat pic ,this is building up for a classic ,im going out now to put out garden furniture , ready for photo shoot .iv got to beet 24cms to tie with record since iv been living winscombe for 12 yrs , could just about swing it if front SLOWS ,i like the look of next weeks charts

[Brum Watcher]

BBC downgrades midlands hugely. The latesy forecast shows bits touching Birmingham and nothing at all towards the east. with Wales mentioned upto 6 inches widely.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Still no ppn here in Nottingham, and I've just been out and not even the odd spot blowing in the breeze.

I think we will have to wait for the main band before getting any ppn in this area.

On the subject of freezing rain there are a couple of events that stick in my mind.

First was a few years back in Stanley, County Durham one morning when everything was coated in inch thick ice and people couldn't even get in their cars! I remember trying to cross a road and the button on the traffic lights was encased in ice.

Another time was in the Lake District, December 2007, it was very beautiful but so difficult to walk or drive anywhere.

Here is a pic from that day, showing the weight of the ice on the tree and it's hard to tell but that path was impossible to walk on!

I just wish my photography skills were a bit better back then, it was so beautiful I could have got some amazing photos if I'd known what I was doing.

Anyway back to today...

[I Cumbria Marra I]

http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/97-road-accidents-as-ice-causes-problems-across-cumbria-1.922994?referrerPath=home 97 road accidents because of ice! rising fast

[TEITS]

Going to do my comparison with the radar/models.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs063.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/09/basis06/ukuk/prec/12020912_0906.gif

Slightly topsy turvy because the radar has heavier precip off the coast of the N Sea with mainly light precip across N England.

Now here is how I expect the aftenoon to pan out and I would follow the radar rather than the models. What you see to our N will continue to move S during the afternoon. During late afternoon/evening this band will curve SSW or SW. What happens to the precip as it moves SW is impossible to say but at the moment the main band of heavy precip looks likely across W midlands whilst E Midlands have lighter snow. However because in the E the rain will start as snow and in the W it will be rain turning to snow could result in accumulations being roughly similiar.

As ever in these situations some will be pleasantly surprised and some will be disappointed. This is not as straight forward as last Saturdays snow event.

[azores92]

BBC downgrades midlands hugely. The latesy forecast shows bits touching Birmingham and nothing at all towards the east. with Wales mentioned upto 6 inches widely.

just seen the national forecast. it shows the massive uncertainty really in the forecast with less organised snow shown but in heinsight, i dont think they really know! watch the radar rather than the beeb forecast imo

[danm]

Going to do my comparison with the radar/models.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs063.gif

http://expert-images...020912_0906.gif

Slightly topsy turvy because the radar has heavier precip off the coast of the N Sea with mainly light precip across N England.

Now here is how I expect the aftenoon to pan out and I would follow the radar rather than the models. What you see to our N will continue to move S during the afternoon. During late afternoon/evening this band will curve SSW or SW. What happens to the precip as it moves SW is impossible to say but at the moment the main band of heavy precip looks likely across W midlands whilst E Midlands have lighter snow. However because in the E the rain will start as snow and in the W it will be rain turning to snow could result in accumulations being roughly similiar.

As ever in these situations some will be pleasantly surprised and some will be disappointed. This is not as straight forward as last Saturdays snow event.

Is there much if anything actually falling in parts of the east TEITS? Some people are saying the radar shows them under rain/snow but nothing is falling from the sky.

[TEITS]

Is there much if anything actually falling in parts of the east TEITS? Some people are saying the radar shows them under rain/snow but nothing is falling from the sky.

Nothing here although its pretty much dying out just before it reaches me.

Still not expecting much yet but I am keeping my eye on the precip in the N Sea which will do a Beckham type swerve later on.

[The PIT]

Thankfully despite the radar saying sleet and freezing rain not far away nothing is happening here. Freezing rain is the last thing I want.

[fazzafarrand]

Freezing rain atm, light.

[Aaron]

Just raining here.. well more drizzle now, not even bothering the snow we have though which is good

[Let_it_snow]

Latest from the Met O.

http://www.metoffice...ldweatheralert/

Rather confusing because the NAE suggests only W parts but the update above suggests snow will be more widespread across the S. Even E Anglia has snow forecasted but less accumulations.

Do you think Norfolk will get any as at the moment it looks unlikely and I have seen showers passing over my head on the radar all morning without anything materalising.

[kold weather]

Interestying, quite a few reports of Freezing rain this morning, as temps rise that may well just become bog standard rain in the afternoon though further east I suppose may hold the freezing rain.

It certainly justifies the renaming of this thread yesterday based on the reports thus far, quite widespread considering this is the UK...

[southbank]

Interestying, quite a few reports of Freezing rain this morning, as temps rise that may well just become bog standard rain in the afternoon though further east I suppose may hold the freezing rain.

It certainly justifies the renaming of this thread yesterday based on the reports thus far, quite widespread considering this is the UK...

agree not many reports of snow at all

[trisnow]

Thankfully despite the radar saying sleet and freezing rain not far away nothing is happening here. Freezing rain is the last thing I want.

Ah! I thought maybe the person who created the Sheffield Weather site would post on a weather forum and there you are! Nice site PIT, I use it regularly, thanks. Although it is showing 1.9 degrees at the moment, I'm hoping that is going to drop but maybe you aren't going by your comment? I'm not interested in freezing rain but lots of snow - yup indeedy.

[Potent Gust]

Met office have updated warnings. Anything from 1cm up to 10cms lol

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/wm_forecast_warnings.html

[Alex95]

Very icy this morning with quite heavy freezing rain, although the ice is certainly retreating now. The remnants of Saturday's snow is still lying in the garden despite the fact that we only got a few cm here.

[trisnow]

Anyone found any webcams where it is snowing yet?

[Bottesford]

Hefty bit of precip showing on radar but nothing falling from the sky... How bizarre...

[Suburban Streamer]

Anyone found any webcams where it is snowing yet?

most forecasts suggest its too early for snow yet anywhere. latest bbc graphics show snow only starting to develop over ne eng at around 5pm and then gradually spreading south! but the 5pm BBC graphics matched the CURRENT radar so who knows whats going on!

[nick sussex]

It's really quite a confusing picture when you look at the latest radar, one area of precip running sw through the ne of England towards the Midlands and another over the North Sea running towards Norfolk, if you look at the fax chart for tomorrow morning at 6am it does look like an occlusion has worked sw aswell as the warm front, so I wonder if that second precip is that occlusion.

The fax chart for Midday might be able to shed some light on the situation.

[Nick L]

Hefty bit of precip showing on radar but nothing falling from the sky... How bizarre...

The skew-T from Nottingham shows us why quite nicely...

http://nwstatic.co.u...76410131441.png

The left hand line represents dew point, the right temperature. So the closer they are together the moister the air. Higher up the air is saturated (cloud cover), nearer the surface it is much, much drier so the precipitation simply evaporates. As we head through the day, the air near the surface will become more moist...

http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/tempskew/skew0.997376410131441.png

Edited February 9, 2012 by Nick L

[The PIT]

Looks like we will miss out on any fun of the ice nature here thankfully. If we're very lucky may see the odd flake before the day is out.

Edited February 9, 2012 by The PIT

[trisnow]

Seems to be downgrading all day to me for many places North and East and even some Central...

Latest BBC weather screengrab for 10pm