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Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

Cheese Rice

By Cheese Rice
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

and ppn still isn't in the location progged by the models.

I beg to differ with that. The GFS isn't far out at 15Z, and neither is the UKMO.

This is slow moving remember, everything is looking straight forward from my perspective.

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Zakos Community Regular

Zakos

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
Posted

Snowing here now lightly in welli. Things still look similiar to some forecasts, but with more heavy snowfalll in the east midlands. Still heaviest in west midlands. Forecast for my area has massively improved, but this is mainly because of a small shift east of where the ppn stalls.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

It does looks like for now that the focus of the heavier precip is still further east, the front itself is close to where it was forecasted BUT the precip distrubution is very different. Probably a good trend for E.Midlands that had been looking like only getting a very small amount going by the 06z models.

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Mammatus Apprentice

Mammatus

Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
Posted

My personal opinion is that all the snow is heading for Sudury in Suffolk :p :rofl:

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Zakos Community Regular

Zakos

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
Posted (edited)

It does looks like for now that the focus of the heavier precip is still further east, the front itself is close to where it was forecasted BUT the precip distrubution is very different. Probably a good trend for E.Midlands that had been looking like only getting a very small amount going by the 06z models.

yes 06z were dire for my area. Looking much better now and little time for change. Its not a completely failed forecast as some are suggesting, but the area of ppn definately is, the bbc forecast graphics looks quite wide of the mark as they show a disorganised mostly light snow area. The met have binned this as it goes against their warning and their forecasts Edited by Zakos
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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

It does looks like for now that the focus of the heavier precip is still further east, the front itself is close to where it was forecasted BUT the precip distrubution is very different. Probably a good trend for E.Midlands that had been looking like only getting a very small amount going by the 06z models.

It's a better sign for us Leicesterian snow lovers! The NAE is quite a way out with its PPN placement if you ask me.

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trisnow Apprentice

trisnow

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)

I beg to differ with that. The GFS isn't far out at 15Z, and neither is the UKMO.

This is slow moving remember, everything is looking straight forward from my perspective.

Yeah, GFS don't appear too far out at all, maybe a slower but the areas are pretty much correct.

I've been nerdy and merged the the GFS for 15:00 with the last live radar and it shows more or less correct with the darker blue being where it wasn't correct compared to the radar but the purples / pinks are spot on.

gfs_radar.jpg

Edited by trisnow
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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

yes 06z were dire for my area. Looking much better now and little time for change. Its not a completely failed forecast as some are suggesting, but the area of ppn definately is, the bbc forecast graphics looks quite wide of the mark as they show a disorganised mostly light snow area. The met have binned this as it goes against their warning and their forecasts

Zakos... You and me both need this to be further East than the 06z showed :lol: At the moment it does look further East than the NAE PPN charts showed, that is a definite. We have been under PPN for about an hour now though and still nothing is falling, when is this damn air going to moisten up :doh:

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Suburban Streamer Explorer

Suburban Streamer

Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
Posted

latest from metoffice saying this is a developing situation and keep up to date with forecasts etc etc.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/snow-follows-ice

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

I would say in terms of marginality precipitation further east is a good thing as it allows more time for undercutting.

High ground around Birmingham is looking very good for about 20cm.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

had some light rain with what you might call frozen raindrops in it-small soft hail or graupel, certainly the ground here is now above zero C as is the air temperature.

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woldsowl Newbie

woldsowl

Posted
  • Location: Langtoft. East Riding of Yorkshire. 70m amsl
  • Location: Langtoft. East Riding of Yorkshire. 70m amsl
Posted

Light persistent snow on the Wolds, gradually becoming a little heavier. Rain and ice pellets in York earlier.

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Zakos Community Regular

Zakos

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
Posted

Zakos... You and me both need this to be further East than the 06z showed :lol: At the moment it does look further East than the NAE PPN charts showed, that is a definite. We have been under PPN for about an hour now though and still nothing is falling, when is this damn air going to moisten up :doh:

its snowing here now :D at least we dont have to worry about rain instead of snow! And things are definately looking better for you and me both, dont worry Im sure it will moisten up soon. NAE looks completely wrong to me.
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liam300 Rookie

liam300

Posted
  • Location: Bedhampton - Hampshire 30m above sea level.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzard, Hot & Sunny
  • Location: Bedhampton - Hampshire 30m above sea level.
Posted

How about more central southern areas?

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Still rain here.. temp 0c, dew -1c.. :doh:

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Good news! The latest NAE 12z has the PPN further East

12020918_0912.gif

Just about to post this but at last the NAE reflects the radar.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Good news! The latest NAE 12z has the PPN further East

12020918_0912.gif

its has certainly done that from both its 00z and especially its 06z idea.

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feno13 Apprentice

feno13

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers /snowy winters
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Well got a few flakes falling here in peterborough ,but no prec over us according to the radar lol

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trisnow Apprentice

trisnow

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

Good news! The latest NAE 12z has the PPN further East

Whenever I see a sentence starting with "Good News!" It's always this guys voice saying it in my head... :p Is it just me who that happens to? lol

futurama-season-6-20100609103054764.jpg

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted (edited)

Game on for the E Midlands.

http://expert-images...021000_0912.gif

Still without blowing my own trumpet I said last night this would happen.

Currently snowing here.

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
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