Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[Bottesford]

The skew-T from Nottingham shows us why quite nicely...

Ah excellent - understand now! cheers.

[Paul33]

Looking at the NW radar, surely that increasingly intense area of snow building off the NE coast is going to swing in across Lincs and East Mids later today ...... is it not ?

[Yorkshiresnows]

I can report light snow, just North of York.

Y.S

[DAVEY1980]

How is Basingstoke looking for snow - Has there been an upgrade for here. Can't really work it out.

[nick sussex]

Maybe the UKMO forecasters are all out to lunch and can't see that their forecast is beginning to unravel!

Unless that second clump of precip over the North Sea suddenly veers west then they might have to change some of their warnings.

[Paul33]

http://www.buienradar.nl/buienradar-3-uur-vooruit.aspx

That lot is going to make land around the Wash surely ?

[Soaring Hawk]

From the Twitter..

Freezing Rain in all it's ugly and dangerous glory..

Going to be a busy day in A & E Departments from those getting flipped unexpectedly. Stay Safe !

Here in North Tyneside we've had freezing rain since early this morning.

So far my colleague slipped down steps outside her house resulting in badly sprained ankle and back and is at home in tears; I slipped getting out of the car at work and pulled muscles in my back; another colleague slipped over and hurt his elbow; another was involved in a multi-car accident on the way in and is in hospital; another slipped walking across the carpark and has broken his arm. And they are the ones I know about.....

[Nick L]

Maybe the UKMO forecasters are all out to lunch and can't see that their forecast is beginning to unravel!

Unless that second clump of precip over the North Sea suddenly veers west then they might have to change some of their warnings.

I have sympathy when the models are like they are at the moment, but if we can see it's starting to go belly up by simply looking at the radar then why can't they?

[TEITS]

As i've said since last night the radar suggests this isn't going according to plan. We have one area of precip off the coast of NE England but another further E into the N Sea. Now I could be wrong but at the moment that other band of precip could hit the E Midlands later on this afternoon.

Please don't pin your hopes on this though because I could be wrong.

According to the NAE the heaviest precip should be across the NW England into N Ireland. That isn't the case!

Edited February 9, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's not as easy as putting areas of precipitation on a trajectory though TEITS. The area of snow tonight is shown to expand almost in situ as the front out east progresses and interacts with the one further west. It's how this interaction occurs that will be the pivitol development

[trisnow]

Maybe the UKMO forecasters are all out to lunch and can't see that their forecast is beginning to unravel!

Unless that second clump of precip over the North Sea suddenly veers west then they might have to change some of their warnings.

I just can't see it evolving as they say it should?? It does look it is too far south already and not coming in West enough to fit in with their maps....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Maybe the UKMO forecasters are all out to lunch and can't see that their forecast is beginning to unravel!

Unless that second clump of precip over the North Sea suddenly veers west then they might have to change some of their warnings.

Come on now Nick, you're intelligent enough to understand that the dynamics of frontal events like this aren't that simple. Though I agree, the radar is off from what was forecast.

Edited February 9, 2012 by CreweCold

[nick sussex]

Does anyone speak Dutch?, isn't there a forecast movement of precip on this site:

http://winter.buienradar.nl/sneeuwradar.aspx

[Zakos]

Yes TEITS i think this is also forecast for the east mids by the nmm

[Nick L]

Does anyone speak Dutch?, isn't there a forecast movement of precip on this site:

http://winter.buienr...neeuwradar.aspx

If you use Google Chrome it automatically translates webpages. And it just gives an explanation of what the map shows, not the forecast unfortunately.

[nick sussex]

Come on now Nick, you're intelligent enough to understand that the dynamics of frontal events like this aren't that simple

Yes but I'm not paid money like the UKMO!

Even the BBC weather at 1.30pm was wrong regarding where the precip currently is, maybe the rest of those radar returns weren't shown as they are evaporating , either that or theres a strike at the UKMO and no one told Nick Miller to go online and check the latest radar!

[The PIT]

Light rain here now the activity in the north sea does seem to moving south west so southern areas may see something of interest.

Remember the last event was a no show for many hours things can change.

Edited February 9, 2012 by The PIT

[TEITS]

It's not as easy as putting areas of precipitation on a trajectory though TEITS. The area of snow tonight is shown to expand almost in situ as the front out east progresses and interacts with the one further west. It's how this interaction occurs that will be the pivitol development

The models suggested the band of precip will extend S and then later on this afternoon/evening it will swing SSW/SW. Now the problem is the heaviest precipitation is not in the same place as the models predicted. The other band in the N Sea continues on a S,ly track but its going to have to take one hell of a swing W to miss the E Midlands.

Forget charts/models its what the radar says now that is important.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes but I'm not paid money like the UKMO!

Even the BBC weather at 1.30pm was wrong regarding where the precip currently is, maybe the rest of those radar returns weren't shown as they are evaporating , either that or theres a strike at the UKMO and no one told Nick Miller to go online and check the latest radar!

Haha well I've always said that they don't respond quickly to the 'here and now'

[danm]

Seems to be downgrading all day to me for many places North and East and even some Central...

Latest BBC weather screengrab for 10pm

I would pay little attention to the BBC graphics for the rest of today and watch the radar & listen to the experienced members on here. The BBC graphics are derived from their short range, high res models which seem to be getting the placement of the precipitation quite wrong.

[trisnow]

I'm guessing everyone knows already about the Meteox forecast toll for 3 hours ahead?

http://meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=exp

[Nick L]

I'm not complaining about the current track though, puts me right in the firing line for the decent stuff later tonight!

[TEITS]

Yes but I'm not paid money like the UKMO!

Even the BBC weather at 1.30pm was wrong regarding where the precip currently is, maybe the rest of those radar returns weren't shown as they are evaporating , either that or theres a strike at the UKMO and no one told Nick Miller to go online and check the latest radar!

That doesn't surprise me. I remember a few years ago the BBC were predicting snow across the S coast when a look at the radar at 6pm suggested it would remain in the Channel. Even on the 10.30pm forecast they were still forecasting the same and yet a simple glance at the radar would of told them otherwise.

[Polar Maritime]

It's not as easy as putting areas of precipitation on a trajectory though TEITS. The area of snow tonight is shown to expand almost in situ as the front out east progresses and interacts with the one further west. It's how this interaction occurs that will be the pivitol development

I agree CC

The front looks like it will stall bump and then pivot S/W from the midland's. This is when we should see some good snowfall later this evening and through tonight.

[Theresnoway]

I'm guessing everyone knows already about the Meteox forecast toll for 3 hours ahead?

http://meteox.co.uk/...ar=-3&soort=exp

Does that not just forecast based on the current trajectory?