Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[trisnow]

the latest NAE shows the first band of precipitation being referred to and the main band fairly close behind it. It also moves this further west than even the 00z output had.

Do you an image John please?

[stewfox]

The map i have created below is using the latest GFS/NAE data 00z

I used overlays/layers to do this of the actual precipitation charts, some local areas would most likely see very heavy snowfall in the dark pink area/zone-that area on my map is generally covering moderate and heavy snowfall, i thought it would be best to not place where the more heavy snowfalls could occur as this could change over the hours, so its radar watching for 2 days then! the map covers the period of thursday and friday merged into one map, so some areas wont see the snow until late thursday or even friday depending on the speed/angle and movement of the snowfall, but all in all the map has covered where we can expect snow through thursday and friday using gfs and nae.

ESS

Shifted more west surely , can't see places like Kent etc getting anything could be wrong

I'm bang in the middle of that map but latest suggest more west south west of me ?

Down to now casting

[johnholmes]

Do you an image John please?

[trisnow]

Wow, that's quite a big shift west isn't it?

[feno13]

the latest NAE shows the first band of precipitation being referred to and the main band fairly close behind it. It also moves this further west than even the 00z output had.

Imo the NAE has been terrible over the last 24 hrs

[johnholmes]

Imo the NAE has been terrible over the last 24 hrs

gfs T+24 version

pity the poor forecasters job

[Wilks]

Imo the NAE has been terrible over the last 24 hrs

I agree, almost pointless looking at it, the only thing that will help over the next 24 hours is the radar and that's it!

[trisnow]

I'm shocked at how they can all be so different this close in! I'm guessing you are all used to this though. I know you John are one for saying charts can't be trusted too far out.

I agree, almost pointless looking at it, the only thing that will help over the next 24 hours is the radar and that's it!

Which radar? The Rain Today one has had precipitation over much of the North all day where there hasn't been any falling on the ground.

Edited February 9, 2012 by trisnow

[fazzafarrand]

yeah i know it can lead to problems in big ice storms that one in canda was very extreme and lasted for weeks we will get 24hrs at the most so we would just get the nice coating on everything and slippery surfaces. cant imaging it causing power lines to come down as it needs to be heavier and longer lasting does'nt it?

Maybe you don't drive because the raods would be a nightmare!

[johnholmes]

I would hate to be trying to do a national forecast I'm scratching my head over whether to amend my own local area web forecast or not as it is

[i luv snow]

That doesn't tie up with latest radar tho? it will be too west for places in EA and SE yes, but the ppn is already clearly already heading towards places further east than the NAE is suggesting.

[nick sussex]

yeah i know it can lead to problems in big ice storms that one in canda was very extreme and lasted for weeks we will get 24hrs at the most so we would just get the nice coating on everything and slippery surfaces. cant imaging it causing power lines to come down as it needs to be heavier and longer lasting does'nt it?

Are you worried now? lol

My advice stick to hoping for snow rather than freezing rain especially if you have to get in a car and drive somewhere!

[trisnow]

That doesn't tie up with latest radar tho? it will be too west for places in EA and SE yes, but the ppn is already clearly already heading towards places further east than the NAE is suggesting.

There's nothing actually coming down in those places though I don't think..

[fazzafarrand]

That doesn't tie up with latest radar tho? it will be too west for places in EA and SE yes, but the ppn is already clearly already heading towards places further east than the NAE is suggesting.

yes you can see that on the radar but nothing is falling as yet!!!!!!!!!!!

[lightningst]

Maybe you don't drive because the raods would be a nightmare!

i do drive but dont have anywhere to go for next few days as am on holiday. the thing with driving in ice is go slow be careful no problem at all, drive like a fool and and to fast thats when problems begin.

[i luv snow]

There's nothing actually coming down in those places though I don't think..

Oh really? didn't realise that, sorry!

[Wilks]

I'm shocked at how they can all be so different this close in! I'm guessing you are all used to this though. I know you John are one for saying charts can't be trusted too far out.

Which radar? The Rain Today one has had precipitation over much of the North all day where there hasn't been any falling on the ground.

Yes but currently extremely light which you can see from the radar.

[Polar Maritime]

It's all down to now casting and radar's from now on.

Good luck amending your forcast JH

EDIT: And lamp post watching.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[tinybill]

There's nothing actually coming down in those places though I don't think..

as you say im watching the radar and its more east then they have said allready reports of heavy show in norwich

[jy]

Well Stewfox,will we both get snow on our birthday,think your chance better than mine,right off pike fishing now,enjoy your day.

[lightningst]

There's nothing actually coming down in those places though I don't think..

nothing coming down in east yorkshire and the radar as been showing rain/snow for last hour

[kold weather]

The radar is certainly different looking than the models at the moment, for E.Midlands that may well make an interesting morning surprise!

[fazzafarrand]

i do drive but dont have anywhere to go for next few days as am on holiday. the thing with driving in ice is go slow be careful no problem at all, drive like a fool and and to fast thats when problems begin.

But it is uasually the idiot behind you. lol!

[trisnow]

Oh really? didn't realise that, sorry!

Actually I've just looked again and it looks like it is starting to turn to snow here? http://www.keepmoving.co.uk/home_jamcams.aspx#mapSection

Click the North West and then click the most Eastern pink cam nearer Huddersfield and it appears snow is starting to fall now. The snow on the ground was already there but that cam has been pretty much clear until now where it looks like snow is lightly falling.

[lightningst]

But it is uasually the idiot behind you. lol!

yeah very true