Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[danm]

So tonight it's off colour - tomorrow it'll be back on track.

Bit of a flippant comment. If it's 50-100 miles out now, that could have significant implications for the positioning of the snow tomorrow night. COULD. I wouldn't ignore this discrepancy. There is a lot more uncertainty with this system than the one that gave the snow last weekend.

I still think somewhere around the Midlands will hit the jackpot, but there will need to be more radar watching and nowcasting with this system than the one on Saturday night.

[Weathizard]

Although I do understand the charts to a certain degree, is this probably an all snow event now? ie if it DOES reach me, which it probably wont, will it be all snow and not a horrible mess like last time!

[NorthantsSnow]

Here is what the NMM is showing for 0600 Friday. All the while the snow line is backing further and further west and we see an intensification of the precipitation.

Heavy snow for many parts of central, southern and western England, as well as parts of Wales eventually.

Edited February 8, 2012 by NorthantsSnow

[steveinsussex]

Relax my friend - thats more applicable further east.

Across the west country 6mm shown on the south coast towards dorset/somerset, up to 14mm for the bristol area, then up to 17 across glos

SK

you mean west right?? no way would it fall as snow here (east) tomorrow night, we have had snow flurries all day long and its not forcecast to get above freezing for much of the day with -4 uppers

[TEITS]

Heey relax, TEITS. The snow is coming, and it's headed straight for Peterborough. I can feel it...

:lol:

Have to be honest im not overly bothered really whether I get 1 or 10cm. I just find it all rather odd to be honest. Here is another way of viewing this.

If I was living in Aberdeenshire I would be expecting a mainly dry evening with rain arriving between 3-6am.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/prec/12020903_0818.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/prec/12020906_0818.gif

Now it we follow the radar that forecast has gone well and truly wrong.

[kold weather]

I think overall the NMM is by far the best run for the countrty as a whole, most places get snow at some point.

Northants, yes mate the snow is heading westwards on that chart, though worth noting there is alot of rain before then, probably some puddles around to contend with...

[devon lad]

Although I do understand the charts to a certain degree, is this probably an all snow event now? ie if it DOES reach me, which it probably wont, will it be all snow and not a horrible mess like last time!

If you near as near to the coast as Brighton there is always the chance (and most probably likely) that such an event will be what you describe as 'a horrible mess' - but a few miles inland (esp. on high ground) things could be much different ..... if it reaches you!

dl

[NorthantsSnow]

I think overall the NMM is by far the best run for the countrty as a whole, most places get snow at some point.

Northants, yes mate the snow is heading westwards on that chart, though worth noting there is alot of rain before then, probably some puddles around to contend with...

Yeah, that is true. But I agree with you that the NMM is probably too slow at turning it to snow and that could be significant.

[Bristawl Si]

Bit of a flippant comment. If it's 50-100 miles out now, that could have significant implications for the positioning of the snow tomorrow night. COULD. I wouldn't ignore this discrepancy. There is a lot more uncertainty with this system than the one that gave the snow last weekend.

I still think somewhere around the Midlands will hit the jackpot, but there will need to be more radar watching and nowcasting with this system than the one on Saturday night.

To be honest i'm quite a relaxed sort of guy - and how some on here get all uptight about the weather makes me laugh sometimes - it really does!

I genuinely couldn't give a doo-dah about what the models say - it's the weather at the time that matters (and not that much really either).

Computer model runs are full of inaccuracies a lot of the time - makes me wonder how the people feeding the data into them keep their jobs to be honest.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Freezing rain has arrived here, eugh. Anywhere with uppers below 0C will be fine, the dewpoint is -0.8C here so it's entirely the upper layer that I'd be concerned about. As long as everything above is below 0C it'll be snow....

[Weathizard]

If you near as near to the coast as Brighton there is always the chance (and most probably likely) that such an event will be what you describe as 'a horrible mess' - but a few miles inland (esp. on high ground) things could be much different ..... if it reaches you!

dl

Of course at the moment its all ifs and buts! I often wonder why the sea effects snow so much, I can understand with a southerly wind but seems strange with a ESE/E wind, I've had a few 'marginal' dumpings here in the past 3 years, suppose just maybe had a run of luck! Ignoring saturday that is!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Weathizard

[Slowpoke]

Freezing rain for me in Blackpool, right? No chance of a bit of sleet/snow to begin with?

Edited February 8, 2012 by Slowpoke

[MKN]

Here is what the NMM is showing for 0600 Friday. All the while the snow line is backing further and further west and we see an intensification of the precipitation.

Heavy snow for many parts of central, southern and western England, as well as parts of Wales eventually.

Does any stage of the run look better for areas such as hmmm leicester lol? Im starting to think will all be best around birmingham and to the south west

[PubliusEnigma]

http://europa.buienradar.nl/3daagse.aspx?soort=grt-036regenverwachting&jaar=-10&type=regenverwachting

Dutch radar forecast moves the whole show east around 1AM. With TEITS being in the sweet spot, down to the London Area

generally.

[greybing]

To be honest i'm quite a relaxed sort of guy - and how some on here get all uptight about the weather makes me laugh sometimes - it really does!

I genuinely couldn't give a doo-dah about what the models say - it's the weather at the time that matters (and not that much really either).

Computer model runs are full of inaccuracies a lot of the time - makes me wonder how the people feeding the data into them keep their jobs to be honest.

I'm with you.People are so uptight there is a 'moaning about the winter thread'. Edited February 8, 2012 by greybing

[kold weather]

Will be interesting to see what model is correct with regards to the 850hpa temps, thats going to be vital for western areas in this set-up. The GFS and also the NMM looks probably just on the wrong side for places west of B'ham at least for the first half of the night, whilst the UKMO/ECM looks fine in that respect.

Tough call...normally I'd go with the NAE/ECM agreement...but the NMM did such an amazing job its putting uncertainty in my mind...

[TEITS]

In all seriousness though, TEITS, that is rather poor for a mesoscale model to be getting things wrong at T+0.

But, I'm willing to let this one slide for the time being. Y'know, it's progging snowmageddon over my house in just over 24 hours!

It's my favourite model atm. Until it shifts all the snow to your yard...

:lol:

I must admit its looking excellent for the W especially the W Midlands.

My current thinking is this although I could be wrong.

The chart below suggests two areas of precip like I said this morning with both on a SSW,ly track.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs243.gif

Skipping forward the main band merges across W Midlands with only light precip across E Midlands/Lincs.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs303.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs243.gif

Now my view based on the current radar is the front is further SE than the models predicted. This still means W areas will experience the heaviest precip but im wondering whether across E areas the area of precip might be more widespread and heavier than the models are predicting.

I could be completely wrong though!

Cheers PE for posting that because its interesting seeing that radar sequence after what i've just posted above.

Edited February 8, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Mark Burton]

I bet by tomorrow morning the whole ppn forcast has changed again! My location along with TEIS is right on the Eastern snowline, it could go either way for us - it's a nowcast for me.

Last weekend was so good for us in the East, it looks like it's back to business as usual for the Fens!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Mark Burton

[kold weather]

Yeah I'd feel very confident of snow snow in the W.MIdlands, though thats obviously providing that the NMM/GFS isn't correct and the milder air at 850hpa is weaker than they expect (IF it isn't you could well see 5-10mm of rain beforehand which would make a difference)

I feel even more confident however for C.Midlands...

[Krakatoa01]

I think that's a massively impressive spot and reLy outlines how the radar is ALWAYS your best friend in these situations. Models very rarely get precipitation perfect. Broadly speaking yes but in enough detail I'd say no. I'd say the met are the only people with the right resolution models to work this out!

Im not confusing anything. Fact is the NAE is predicting a dry evening across NE Scotland and it isn't. Just wait until midnight and the difference between the radar and the models will be even more noticeable.

Just posting what I see. Go and check the radar and compare with the NAE/GFS. Nobody can argue that the 18Z NAE is way off. Basically the NAE has the front too far NW. You can see this with your own eyes.

[Liam J]

How long will it take the ground to warm up above freezing and allow the ice to thaw? The front is due to move in during the next few hours which is good as it's the quietest time of night resulting in less traffic on the move etc and also this will help to lift the temps, already risen to 0c from -3.0c earlier this evening. By rush hour I would've thought the risk will be diminished with rising temperatures.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Liam J

[Zakos]

I must admit its looking excellent for the W especially the W Midlands.

My current thinking is this although I could be wrong.

The chart below suggests two areas of precip like I said this morning with both on a SSW,ly track.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs243.gif

Skipping forward the main band merges across W Midlands with only light precip across E Midlands/Lincs.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs303.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs243.gif

Now my view based on the current radar is the front is further SE than the models predicted. This still means W areas will experience the heaviest precip but im wondering whether across E areas the area of precip might be more widespread and heavier than the models are predicting.

I could be completely wrong though!

I agree here. And not because of IMBYism, but your point about the NAE being wrong is a valid one.

I think the area of PPN will be large than forecast. Still with the heaviest snow to the west mids as you say.

But the NMM has my area completely snowless, and dont think that's going to happen. The ECM looks the most realistic to me, the eastward extent of the snow is much larger, with the west mids still bearing the brunt of the snowfall. Didn't the ECM get last weekend's event right days ahead?

[mackerel sky]

I must admit its looking excellent for the W especially the W Midlands.

My current thinking is this although I could be wrong.

The chart below suggests two areas of precip like I said this morning with both on a SSW,ly track.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs243.gif

Skipping forward the main band merges across W Midlands with only light precip across E Midlands/Lincs.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs303.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs243.gif

Now my view based on the current radar is the front is further SE than the models predicted. This still means W areas will experience the heaviest precip but im wondering whether across E areas the area of precip might be more widespread and heavier than the models are predicting.

I could be completely wrong though!

Cheers PE for posting that because its interesting seeing that radar sequence after what i've just posted above.

In terms of accumulations of snow it counts for nothing, because even if the precipitation is lighter in the east it will be snow from the outset, rather than rain. Western areas will be playing a game of catchup with every finger crossed.

[TEITS]

Just to add fuel to the fire but actually the 06Z NAE looks more accurate for midnight. :o

http://expert-images...020900_0806.gif

Edited February 8, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[kold weather]

But the NMM has my area completely snowless, and dont think that's going to happen. The ECM looks the most realistic to me, the eastward extent of the snow is much larger, with the west mids still bearing the brunt of the snowfall. Didn't the ECM get last weekend's event right days ahead?

ECM did an ok job, most models did really. NMM did the best overall with regards to precip types, though both the NAE and the NMM did a good job.

Tonught there probably isn't much difference between the /NAE and the NMM other than the NMM develops a stronger system which in turn causes a slightly larger milder zone at 850hpa and turns the snow on the NAE into rain on the NMM in the W.MIdlands...