Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[MKN]

to highlight the point teits made earlier regarding the nae precip prediction compared to the radar at +3

[kold weather]

Just remember the se looked a great spot for the weekend and turned out to be a pretty rubbish event...

I had nearly 6 inches...it was a GREAT event for alot of the SE...not sure where your getting your info from?!

[Ross B]

Well missing the snow again but we do have freezing rain here (I think, not going out to check properly in case I fall!) Surfaces glistening with frost still on the ground. Will be interesting to see how bad it is for rush hour in the morning!

[saintkip]

Here we go the NAE takes the precip further W.

http://expert-images...021000_0818.gif

Thanks, well thats a load of dog turd, misses me by about ten miles to the west/north, last weekend the main show missed me by about the same to the east, ah well, it might move a bit east tomorrow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just remember the se looked a great spot for the weekend and turned out to be a pretty rubbish event...

SE got way more than us, and less of a thaw, I had around 3 inches, they had around 7

[feno13]

Here we go the NAE takes the precip further W.

http://expert-images...021000_0818.gif

How much do you think p/boro will get out of this TEITS

Regards

[TEITS]

to highlight the point teits made earlier regarding the nae precip prediction compared to the radar at +3

Indeed and remember what is over NE Scotland will eventually move S tomorrow.

If the models are wrong at +0 then to be honest I don't have much confidence in the projected precip charts at the moment. Very poor from the NAE and even the GFS is off at this timeframe.

[Candice]

Just remember the se looked a great spot for the weekend and turned out to be a pretty rubbish event...

We had 10cm here, not rubbish at all

[LeeSnowFan]

Some area's that had a good snowfall last week gonna get more! Arghhhhh!

Would love to see a good snow event in Barnsley south yorks, can anyone comment on what they think my area could do? :smilz38:

[I Cumbria Marra I]

6/7 inches!!! didnt realize you got that much!

[A.J]

updates seem to be trending this away from my area, place to be looks like S Wales SW midlands, parts of SW England

Mark, what on earth are you talking about????.....If you think it's moving away from our area (west midlands) then you really need to go to specsavers! :lol:

[Interitus]

Its a pity we can't see more of these types of charts, they would given an indication for snow or freezing rain

Try meteociel on the modeles sondages gfs link -

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/sondage_gfs.php

Covers the southern Uk - click on the map for a skew-T chart at that location.

[damianslaw]

Models do seem to suggest the front is going to stall on an alignment from somerset up to humberside with the snow heaviest and most long lasting over sw midlands. Cotswolds looks a favoured spot as well as high ground in worcestershire and SE wales.

East Anglia and London area looks far too east thanks to the stubborn heights from the continent. The SW midlands and se wales and west country didn't see much snow on Saturday esp SW so it would be good in this respect if these places see there share on this occasion.

Up here - its looks a lengthy freezing rain event with precip going nowhere fast. Indeed we look like having three days of rain as fronts become unstuck and slow moving across the area making for very raw dull cold conditions - a preety miserable outlook it has to be said..

[kold weather]

Wow that is a big difference between the intial radar and the NAE forecast at the moment, the NAE is WAY too far NW with its forecast. May not mean much down the line, but wow!

[TEITS]

Was you confident when the NAE was modelling heavy snowfall over Peterborough? Was the NAE on fine form?

:lol:

I thought someone would say that. :lol:

If the NAE was predicting heavy snow tomorrow for my region and then I checked the radar I would be even more concerned. Im really struggling to understand how a higher resolution model like the NAE can be so way off at +3. According to the NAE it should be dry across NE Scotland at the moment.

Edited February 8, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Costa Del Fal]

I think much of the West Midlands but particularly south of about Wolverhampton looks right in the firing line right now. However Im concerned this westwards trend may continue further and even Wales might struggle at this rate. :lol:

[MKN]

Based on the current radar the HIRLAM model is much closer to reality at +9 from its 12z output than the NAE was at +3. might be worth looking at what that shows further down the line

[TEITS]

Just mentioned this in the other thread but I feel its worth mentioning here. Check out the latest NAE below and look at the predicted rainfall across NE Scotland.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/prec/12020821_0818.gif

Now go and check the radar!

How on earth can the NAE be so wrong at +3!

[Brum Watcher]

Just mentioned this in the other thread but I feel its worth mentioning here. Check out the latest NAE below and look at the predicted rainfall across NE Scotland.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/prec/12020821_0818.gif

Now go and check the radar!

How on earth can the NAE be so wrong at +3!

Ok. Whats the NAE saying for midnight. That would probably make more sense...

[TEITS]

Based on the current radar the HIRLAM model is much closer to reality at +9 from its 12z output than the NAE was at +3. might be worth looking at what that shows further down the line

Im surprised this isn't getting more attention. Not only does the NAE have no precipitation across NE Scotland but the 10pm radar even has this band beginning to push into the N Sea. If the models have the precip in the wrong place at +0hrs then you really can't have any faith in the projected precip charts. Come tomorrow the snow area may well be as the models indicate but at this moment in time I wouldn't be confident.

Going to be interesting comparing the radar at mignight with the models!

[J10]

Just mentioned this in the other thread but I feel its worth mentioning here. Check out the latest NAE below and look at the predicted rainfall across NE Scotland.

http://expert-images...020821_0818.gif

Now go and check the radar!

How on earth can the NAE be so wrong at +3!

Well to be fair, that is FI.

[Bristawl Si]

Im surprised this isn't getting more attention. Not only does the NAE have no precipitation across NE Scotland but the 10pm radar even has this band beginning to push into the N Sea. If the models have the precip in the wrong place at +0hrs then you really can't have any faith in the projected precip charts. Come tomorrow the snow area may well be as the models indicate but at this moment in time I wouldn't be confident.

Going to be interesting comparing the radar at mignight with the models!

It was pretty accurate for the snow event on Sat/Sun though TEITS - didn't really waver much in the 36 hours up to its arrival

Ian F on our local Beeb forecast right now - snow running thru' Oxford, Glos and into BTL area, SE Wales, North Somerset, Wilts - coming from the Midlands - around midnight thru to Friday morning (all morning Friday as well)

Edited February 8, 2012 by Bristle boy

[MKN]

Im surprised this isn't getting more attention. Not only does the NAE have no precipitation across NE Scotland but the 10pm radar even has this band beginning to push into the N Sea. If the models have the precip in the wrong place at +0hrs then you really can't have any faith in the projected precip charts. Come tomorrow the snow area may well be as the models indicate but at this moment in time I wouldn't be confident.

Going to be interesting comparing the radar at mignight with the models!

i can imagine the outrage on here had it been tomorrows snow that the 18z showed to be say over bristol at 9pm and it was over london instead. its basically kind of whats happened tonight only difference is its not snow so people up north not laying into the poor NAE lol

[snowking]

<p>

<br />

Im surprised this isn't getting more attention. Not only does the NAE have no precipitation across NE Scotland but the 10pm radar even has this band beginning to push into the N Sea. If the models have the precip in the wrong place at +0hrs then you really can't have any faith in the projected precip charts. Come tomorrow the snow area may well be as the models indicate but at this moment in time I wouldn't be confident.<br />

<br />

Going to be interesting comparing the radar at mignight with the models!<br />

</p>

To be honest my thoughts all day long (from a more IMBY POV) have been will modelling underestimate the precip extent out in to the north sea...now this isn't necessarily significant if the system decides to slide SWwards at a further northerly point, but if it has underdone the precip extent out into the north sea and it slides in a similar position to that presently modelled, then we could see a period of much more prolonged (albeit likely relatively light) precip much further east than expected, and this is where I think the current uncertainty lies for the SEward extent

SK

Edited February 8, 2012 by snowking

[TEITS]

Ok. Whats the NAE saying for midnight. That would probably make more sense...

Mainly dry across NE Scotland. The reality will be the rain has already cleared into the N Sea. :lol:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis18/ukuk/prec/12020900_0818.gif

NAE has the front too far NW. Very odd to have this occur at +3.