North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 8

[SnowObsessor90]

But then again you have never posted a positive post about cold prospects. Then again maybe you have a point!

Believe me, what i say and what I think are two entirely things. Over last few weeks I've had plenty of mood swings from positive to negative and vice versa , it just seems that the negative side seems to spill out more often than not lol.

Edited February 13, 2012 by Anonymous21

[AutumnMists]

Yes mate GFS 06Z Shows a wintry weekend for the NW,like you say thought this is the GFS

and i cannot help this will get watered down in the next couple of days,but for now nice

to look at and if it verifys some nice beefy snow showers for the region starting saturday evening

and now back to reality....let the down grades begin LOL

C.S

Yess, looks like a much cooler weekend. In fact, the GFS models are being very consistent for these days, I mean they certainly don't get more consistent than this ...

However a decent bit of consistency also features in the prospects of a much more average or miler period next week after the cooler weekend.

Edited February 13, 2012 by hedgehog4

[AutumnMists]

Believe me, what i say and what I think are two entirely things. Over last few weeks I've had plenty of mood swings from positive to negative and vice versa , it just seems that the negative side seems to spill out more often than not lol.

The British weather is the British weather, it plays a massive part in some of our lives ... I totally understand your feelings!

[SnowObsessor90]

The British weather is the British weather, it plays a massive part in some of our lives ... I totally understand your feelings!

Speaking of which have you ever poped back to that other forum? I bet he's(you know who I mean) loving it, absolutely loving it.

[AutumnMists]

Speaking of which have you ever poped back to that other forum? I bet he's(you know who I mean) loving it, absolutely loving it.

Ohh that forum is too childish for me now

[damianslaw]

Rapid thaw today thanks to atlantic air and temps up to 7/8 degrees. This time yesterday the fields were full of snow now barely anything left. Still we managed a week of snow cover.

The next 3-4 days look preety mild and very benign. Attention turning to the weekend and polar blast.

We have done very well this winter so far with our weekends, most of our coldest and wintriest weather has occured at the weekend - with some very decent winter walking weather.

3/4 Dec - brought the first proper snows on higher ground.

10/11 Dec - first snow cover of the season on the 10th with a bitter NW wind all weekend and further heavy snow build up on the fells.

17/18 Dec - one of the best weekends of the winter so far, hard frost blue skies after some fresh snow on the 16th.

24/25 Dec - mmm all went wrong..

31 Dec - 1 Jan - ditto above, sods law the christmas and new year weekends brought very mild gunk..

7/8 Jan - not much cop neither..

14/15 Jan - Best weekend of thre winter so far , colder than the 17/18 Dec with severe frosts and blue skies with temps struggling to get above freezing, pity all the early snow build up in Dec had dissapeared.

21/22 Jan - mm back to the mild gunk again but fairly dry all the same.

28/29 Jan - Another very good weekend, with fresh snowfall on the fells lovely powder stuff and superb visibility.

4/5 Feb - 5 inch snowfall on the saturday

11/12 Feb - dry but very cold and very gloomy too gloomy for fell walking but a very wintry scene.

What next?

18/19 Feb? - hopefully a decent northerly

25/26 Feb? - undercutting low pressure - snowfest.. I wish..

3/4 March? - strong greenland high clear skies severe frosts.... lets hope winter can end on a high note!

This will be the fourth very good winter on the trot for dry settled conditions. Indeed we have seen many more fine weekends during the last few winters than we have seen in our summers..

[AutumnMists]

What next?

18/19 Feb? - hopefully a decent northerly

25/26 Feb? - undercutting low pressure - snowfest.. I wish..

3/4 March? - strong greenland high clear skies severe frosts.... lets hope winter can end on a high note!

This will be the fourth very good winter on the trot for dry settled conditions. Indeed we have seen many more fine weekends during the last few winters than we have seen in our summers..

Nice logging of cold events there!

From my point of view I think this weekend might be more in the way of very cold nights (such as -3'c or -4'c) ... whereas the daytime temperatures will be at around 5'c or 6'c with possibly some light drizzle. Still a decent chance for a snowfall occurring in one of the nights or afternoons though I suppose. It may also be necessary to suggest a real icy mix on Monday morning causing some disruption in the early hours .... Let's hope this weekend does have a bit of seasonal character!

As for possible cold outbreaks late Feb/early March, I totally agree with you ... the GFS does show signs of decreasing temperatures on these dates ... certainly one to look out for as the last decade has seen some very harsh falls Late feb/early March.

All hopes are high.

[HotCuppa]

Nice logging of cold events there!

From my point of view I think this weekend might be more in the way of very cold nights (such as -3'c or -4'c) ... whereas the daytime temperatures will be at around 5'c or 6'c with possibly some light drizzle. Still a decent chance for a snowfall occurring in one of the nights or afternoons though I suppose. It may also be necessary to suggest a real icy mix on Monday morning causing some disruption in the early hours .... Let's hope this weekend does have a bit of seasonal character!

As for possible cold outbreaks late Feb/early March, I totally agree with you ... the GFS does show signs of decreasing temperatures on these dates ... certainly one to look out for as the last decade has seen some very harsh falls Late feb/early March.

All hopes are high.

I agree totally.

However once again I believe the GFS to be on the sherry.

High pressure well and truly in control, and its bringing up very mild air in with it. Today 9.6C, Saturday looking to be well and truly in double figures, reaching 12C I wouldn't be surprised. In fact a few agencies are going for double figures for sat for Liverpool, not surprising when you have warm air sitting over you, and unlikely to budge certainly for the next 5 or 6 days.

Was not so long ago the met office changed their forecast, admittedly I have no seen it recently (Long range for the North West)..last time I saw it they called for February for the first week or two (in the east) to be colder than average), becoming mild to leave the entire month slightly above average temperature wise...they changed it during January to something else...funny how they nailed this month to a tee so far back...still a long way to go, but I think its all wishes on stars now. Northerly aint going to do nothing for us, while hp sits idly by, besides I think a lot of people are sick to the back teeth of cloud and rain

[AutumnMists]

I agree totally.

However once again I believe the GFS to be on the sherry.

High pressure well and truly in control, and its bringing up very mild air in with it. Today 9.6C, Saturday looking to be well and truly in double figures, reaching 12C I wouldn't be surprised. In fact a few agencies are going for double figures for sat for Liverpool, not surprising when you have warm air sitting over you, and unlikely to budge certainly for the next 5 or 6 days.

Was not so long ago the met office changed their forecast, admittedly I have no seen it recently (Long range for the North West)..last time I saw it they called for February for the first week or two (in the east) to be colder than average), becoming mild to leave the entire month slightly above average temperature wise...they changed it during January to something else...funny how they nailed this month to a tee so far back...still a long way to go, but I think its all wishes on stars now. Northerly aint going to do nothing for us, while hp sits idly by, besides I think a lot of people are sick to the back teeth of cloud and rain

One thing about this weekend is, of course, the further west you go (Merseyside, Cheshire, WIrral, Fylde), this makes a massive difference in the temperature especially since the weather front itself is likely to be weak in nature. Basically I'm saying this weekend we could see a massive difference between the cold East and the more average west.

I'm still sticking to many people near or on the Pennines or other high ground experiencing a wintry feel of some sort.

[feb1991blizzard]

One thing about this weekend is, of course, the further west you go (Merseyside, Cheshire, WIrral, Fylde), this makes a massive difference in the temperature especially since the weather front itself is likely to be weak in nature. Basically I'm saying this weekend we could see a massive difference between the cold East and the more average west.

I'm still sticking to many people near or on the Pennines or other high ground experiencing a wintry feel of some sort.

True but will there be enough meaningfull PPN driven that far inland, depends on how potent the uppers are and if the colder uppers dont arrive after the steeper pressure gradient gets shunted eastwards, and of course if it was a potent blast with anywhere near -8 uppers then the coast would be cold enough and would get pasted (Dec 17th / 18th 2010)

[AutumnMists]

Was not so long ago the met office changed their forecast, admittedly I have no seen it recently (Long range for the North West)..last time I saw it they called for February for the first week or two (in the east) to be colder than average), becoming mild to leave the entire month slightly above average temperature wise...they changed it during January to something else...funny how they nailed this month to a tee so far back...still a long way to go, but I think its all wishes on stars now. Northerly aint going to do nothing for us, while hp sits idly by, besides I think a lot of people are sick to the back teeth of cloud and rain

There is no mention on the Met Office's monthly outlook of mild conditions.

[swainclubber]

ECM,FAX charts and GFS still looking promising for a cold weekend..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Rapid thaw today thanks to atlantic air and temps up to 7/8 degrees. This time yesterday the fields were full of snow now barely anything left. Still we managed a week of snow cover.

The next 3-4 days look preety mild and very benign. Attention turning to the weekend and polar blast.

We have done very well this winter so far with our weekends, most of our coldest and wintriest weather has occured at the weekend - with some very decent winter walking weather.

3/4 Dec - brought the first proper snows on higher ground.

10/11 Dec - first snow cover of the season on the 10th with a bitter NW wind all weekend and further heavy snow build up on the fells.

17/18 Dec - one of the best weekends of the winter so far, hard frost blue skies after some fresh snow on the 16th.

24/25 Dec - mmm all went wrong..

31 Dec - 1 Jan - ditto above, sods law the christmas and new year weekends brought very mild gunk..

7/8 Jan - not much cop neither..

14/15 Jan - Best weekend of thre winter so far , colder than the 17/18 Dec with severe frosts and blue skies with temps struggling to get above freezing, pity all the early snow build up in Dec had dissapeared.

21/22 Jan - mm back to the mild gunk again but fairly dry all the same.

28/29 Jan - Another very good weekend, with fresh snowfall on the fells lovely powder stuff and superb visibility.

4/5 Feb - 5 inch snowfall on the saturday

11/12 Feb - dry but very cold and very gloomy too gloomy for fell walking but a very wintry scene.

What next?

18/19 Feb? - hopefully a decent northerly

25/26 Feb? - undercutting low pressure - snowfest.. I wish..

3/4 March? - strong greenland high clear skies severe frosts.... lets hope winter can end on a high note!

This will be the fourth very good winter on the trot for dry settled conditions. Indeed we have seen many more fine weekends during the last few winters than we have seen in our summers..

definitely agree with this weekend thing, most of our northerlies especially topplers arrive at weekends

[Backtrack]

Many people are so downbeat from the last 2 events that you're not seeing the potential in the charts for us in the NW. It was a similar set up that brought snow to us in December, we will get some wintry showers that's for sure.

Also, the GFS is the best model for Northerlies, it's just pants when it comes to Easterlies. So sit back and enjoy this mild week, because there isn't going to be much more on offer for some time. Believe me.

[shadowfax]

A snowy Saturday night and Sunday will suit me fine, then it can all melt on Monday. I leave home in the dark and get home in the dark at the moment so there's no point having it during the week, it's just a pain as it all turns to sheet ice, my chickens' water freezes up during the day and my very hilly garden become an accident waiting to happen!!

I must admit that we have had two good falls already so I shouldn't be greedy. I do however think there is always a chance of more, I can remember heavy snow at at Easter about 4 years ago, although it tends not to hang around for long.

Edited February 14, 2012 by shadowfax

[cheshire snow]

intresting that the meto go for a battle ground situation on Monday with accumalations of snow possible

where the battle ground will take place is open to discussion though.

C.S

[cheshire snow]

intresting that the meto go for a battle ground situation on Monday with accumalations of snow possible

where the battle ground will take place is open to discussion though.

C.S

Got the feeling i am talking to myself LOL

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

will be dropped thats why, no way will there be snow on monday away from high levels scotland

[cheshire snow]

will be dropped thats why, no way will there be snow on monday away from high levels scotland

more intrested in Sat/Sun brief yes but a preety potent blast

C.S

[cheshire snow]

BT i can see you lurking what are your views for sat/sun

some members in the northern thread talking about the possibilities

of PL over the weekend

C.S

[Backtrack]

will be dropped thats why, no way will there be snow on monday away from high levels scotland

To be fair, it's 6 days away. Things can and will change.

If you have a crystal ball, please share it.

[Lancashire Lass]

Happy Valentines Day everyone

Things still looking good for this weekend albeit shorter.

[UV-RAY]

Happy Valentines Day everyone

Things still looking good for this weekend albeit shorter.

Beggars can't be choosers........ Bring it on! :lol:

[Lancashire Lass]

Lol right now I'd take an hour of snow.

[Lancashire Lass]

Latest 18z GFS run brings the cold slightly earlier with uppers of -6 and dam of 528 over the NW by Saturday lunchtime. By midnight on Saturday uppers of -8 are over the NW, by 3am uppers of -9 over the region and by 6am uppers of -10. So a potentially interesting 36 hours for the the NW I feel.

Anyway here's Matt Hugo's thoughts:

http://matthugo.word...18-19th-feb-12/

Edited February 14, 2012 by Lancashire Lass