North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 8

[Cheshire Freeze]

Definately no marginality issues with this one folks, IMBY i cant see much if any PPN making its way inland far enough but those on the coast will definately see some snow showers but certainly no widespread dumping, there is no way in the world this will be another Dec 17/18th 2010, high pressure will be on our case squeezing straight away, no sooner than the colder uppers are in, 2010 was a totally different case, check out the pressure pattern.

http://www.meteociel...12&map=0&mode=0

Deffinately no Dec 2010......though can't say I'm sad about that as Manchester, Liverpool, even the west Lancs coast etc got all the snow. WNW'ly, W'ly winds are no good here

[feb1991blizzard]

Deffinately no Dec 2010......though can't say I'm sad about that as Manchester, Liverpool, even the west Lancs coast etc got all the snow. WNW'ly, W'ly winds are no good here

I didnt think i would get anything out of that one to be honest, i was reading the model output discussion until about 9, because i have always lived inland i was ignorant as to the devastating impact convective snow showers could have, it was my first winter in this location, i started to read the regionals and couldnt believe what was going on after all the wrist slitting that had been going on because the next days low was going to track down south, people were reporting 11 inches in 6 hours and stuff, so i looked at the radar and it was actually getting closer, then it started snowing lightly for about half hour, i thought it wasnt going to make it but suddenly it lashed down and i got about 2-3 inches in a very short space of time, then the amber warning came up for West Yorkshire and i really thought it was game on, people in Hudder and Bradford were reporting heavy snow, then it all just veered north of me and it stopped here.

I did get a really good potent snow shower this last december though from a North Westerly, nearly 2 inches in an hour, some of the biggest flakes i have ever seen, i think it was sunday the 18th about 6 in the morning, lucky i had only just gone to bed after Froch V Ward else i would have missed it.

[SummerNSnow]

I hope you lot who missed out last time do get your share this time, wouldn't be right if you didn't.

Our lot of snow only went a day or so ago, so I'm not *that* bothered. :winky:

[Cheshire Freeze]

I didnt think i would get anything out of that one to be honest, i was reading the model output discussion until about 9, because i have always lived inland i was ignorant as to the devastating impact convective snow showers could have, it was my first winter in this location, i started to read the regionals and couldnt believe what was going on after all the wrist slitting that had been going on because the next days low was going to track down south, people were reporting 11 inches in 6 hours and stuff, so i looked at the radar and it was actually getting closer, then it started snowing lightly for about half hour, i thought it wasnt going to make it but suddenly it lashed down and i got about 2-3 inches in a very short space of time, then the amber warning came up for West Yorkshire and i really thought it was game on, people in Hudder and Bradford were reporting heavy snow, then it all just veered north of me and it stopped here.

I did get a really good potent snow shower this last december though from a North Westerly, nearly 2 inches in an hour, some of the biggest flakes i have ever seen, i think it was sunday the 18th about 6 in the morning, lucky i had only just gone to bed after Froch V Ward else i would have missed it.

Lol I don't know what happened........a foot of snow around Manchester then the low dropped south, brought about 3-5cm here then went on to drop another foot of snow down south. I felt like putting my fist through the PC screen

You know it's not going well when Blackpool has more snow than you!

Edited February 15, 2012 by CreweCold

[damianslaw]

Could be some decent convection from the NW later on Saturday and the chance of some wintry showers with snow down to quite low levels but probably not enough to settle.

Will be nice to see some fresh snowfall for the fells. What a pity the azores high once again is going to spoil things and prevent a proper potent northerly from digging its heels in - I'd like to blast it to pieces and bring it back in time for May.. whats the odds it will dissapear in time for May and ruin our summer once again...

[Liam J]

Some interesting conditions at the weekend which is something to look forward to after the last week or so. Very boring weather indeed for most of February.

Perhaps a few wintry showers with snow falling later on Saturday as the short lived cold Arctic blast of air digs in and feeling much colder than of late with the fairly strong winds.

[NickyB]

Blimey Eno on BBC isn't hopeful of anything wintery for us :-(. I'm not asking for much, just an inch of snow overnight on Sat would do me!

[AutumnMists]

I typical calm late winter night for me tonight ... possible touch of frost if clear spells develop.

History shows that judging by the mild Winter we have had ... March looks hopeful for snow!

Although the CFS probability charts don't necessarily back this up.

The probability charts are also showing for a very warm May followed by the rest of Summer being generally close to average.

A long way off but I would settle with that

[HotCuppa]

been like that all winter knife edge at best,this is by far the best chance we have got,last chance salloon maybe...

just a couple of hours for the kids to play in the snow...to much to ask...this been NW England probably

C.S

Sadly after furth analysis, we'll be lucky to get below 5/6C, it really isn't going to be as cold as originally thought on sunday. For me it also looks dry and possibly bright (feel chilly tho), before clouding up sunday evening and then rain showers move in during late evening def not good.

Then we are back to above temperatures (9C is not typical feb temps for this part of the myopic world of the mersey, we average 3/5C during mid feb) 10/12C could possibly arrive by monday lunch time again.

By the end of this month, I will have witnessed the warmest winter I have ever recorded imby. That is over 30 winter periods here, it isn't slightly mild its been very much above mild (apart from a short period where night time temperatures where down to -3/-9C) it made absolutely no dent my seasonal average, and thanks to the even warmer temperatures this month (up +4C) for the past week or so it's going to be near impossible for my winter season average temp to even get close to normal (average)..sadly or in this case thankfully, we are now done with winter. It doesn't even a sting left it's tail..bit of a mocking laugh at us this cold (normal temp) spell of less than 24 hours will bring.

[HotCuppa]

I typical calm late winter night for me tonight ... possible touch of frost if clear spells develop.

History shows that judging by the mild Winter we have had ... March looks hopeful for snow!

Although the CFS probability charts don't necessarily back this up.

The probability charts are also showing for a very warm May followed by the rest of Summer being generally close to average.

A long way off but I would settle with that

after a very warm winter..its already becoming quite warm in the sunshine of mid feb and I wouldnt be surprised by mid march to see 16/18C..just the other day we saw almost 13C reached and we are supposed to be in the middle of the coldest month of the year lol...so my temps above will likely be reached..wouldnt be the first or the last march where we have seen very warm temps

[gearbox1002]

It has been a very mild winter, it says a lot when you walk around Scotland in a t shirt in the middle of the coldest month. It looks like this cold spell will really only effect Scotland and here in st Helens will be sunny.

[cheshire snow]

Cool and dry it is then?

i will get my coat LOL

C.S

[jpwild]

Feels very nice. Around 6 degrees, but feels warmer in the sum to me. Hopefully, get some double digit temps as Feb exists and March arrives I've seen more buds and more signs of spring.

[SnowObsessor90]

So I assume a brief return to snow ramping this weekend from Backtrack isn't on the cards then?

Shame, I was looking forward to it.

[AutumnMists]

after a very warm winter..its already becoming quite warm in the sunshine of mid feb and I wouldnt be surprised by mid march to see 16/18C..just the other day we saw almost 13C reached and we are supposed to be in the middle of the coldest month of the year lol...so my temps above will likely be reached..wouldnt be the first or the last march where we have seen very warm temps

No, you can't judge it like that - the famous widespread snow on 12-15th March 2006 came after a terrible wet and mild start to March.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Still looks like snow showers filtering down from Sat 6pm-Sun 3am.....uppers -7/-8 with sub 528 thicknesses. Flow not that strong but people in the south of the region may see a few flakes at least.

P.s anyone hanging on the words of Eno Eruotor has some real soul searching to do!

Edited February 16, 2012 by CreweCold

[MrSunshine]

Still looks like snow showers filtering down from Sat 6pm-Sun 3am.....uppers -7/-8 with sub 528 thicknesses. Flow not that strong but people in the south of the region may see a few flakes at least.

P.s anyone hanging on the words of Eno Eruotor has some real soul searching to do!

Yep she has to be the worst BBC Weather Forecaster of all time, ITV Granada's Jo Blythe all the way!!

[Backtrack]

So I assume a brief return to snow ramping this weekend from Backtrack isn't on the cards then?

Shame, I was looking forward to it.

Isn't on the cards?

You must be joking!

I live in the hail capital of the UK, I'll get the showers.

[SnowObsessor90]

Isn't on the cards?

You must be joking!

I live in the hail capital of the UK, I'll get the showers.

Of course how silly of me.

You'd try and ramp something up if there was like a 0.00001% of it happening lol

[Backtrack]

Of course how silly of me.

You'd try and ramp something up if there was like a 0.00001% of it happening lol

True! And the one time it does happen, you better worship me.

Seriously though, the weekend is looking good for our area. Frequent hail, grauple & snow showers will give a covering. I'm taking a punt at a streamer or two as well.

[Backtrack]

Mark Vogan is a joke.

'By Saturday night, I believe the majority of the Scottish Central Belt will be under fresh snowcover. Coldest night of winter to follow before milder air returns next week? See my blog for write-up!

I think he's been on the sherry. Okay, Scotland will be getting showers mainly of snow, but these will be confined to the NW'ern parts, especially near to the coast.

About the coldest night - How does he expect to see deep sub-zero minimas with the wind gusting to 20-35mph?

He's one forecaster who is extremely bias to his own location, and I do not value his opinion.

[SparkleS]

Cant see the snow happening myself, 9 degrees her and drizzly,boring rain.

[cheshire snow]

all i am going to say reference weekend is expect some surprises and i dont mean Scotland

there is high chance of back edge snow of the front coming south that will introduce the colder air

personally would not pay to much intrest in the GFS and NAE PPN charts,probably be a case of now cast

C.S

[Lancashire Lass]

all i am going to say reference weekend is expect some surprises and i dont mean Scotland

there is high chance of back edge snow of the front coming south that will introduce the colder air

personally would not pay to much intrest in the GFS and NAE PPN charts,probably be a case of now cast

C.S

Yep, same here, no reason to be downbeat. Expect surprises. Radar and lampost watching.

[chiffer]

Anything can happen, the law of probability states that if you threw a box of matches, there is a probability of them making the exact form of the eiffell tower. BT ramp away