North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 8

[Backtrack]

Yes the whole region will have very favourable conditions for low level snow showers tomorrow evening through to Sunday morning. Uppers and dewpoints suggest no marginality and with a trough feature progged to run into southern parts of the district - I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few in the south of the region i.e. merseyside and cheshire wake up to a snow cover Sunday morning - nothing exceptional but some lucky spots may see an inch. Much will depend on the position of the trough - it may take a more westerly path meaning N wales is hit hardest or indeed a more easterly path meaning northern parts including here sees some action. Of course convection will ensure some homegrown showers off the irish sea quickly develop during tomorrow afternoon so anywhere could see a snow shower before dusk arrives.

I've been waiting for these synoptics all winter - what a pity the northerly is going to be so short lived - but its better than nothing and Sunday should be a lovely crisp winters day before we see the return of what looks a wetter windier version of the working week just gone - which it has to be said has been an absolute dull fest - there has been nothing to discuss since last weekend..

Another great post Damian

My thoughts were that we may see a more NW'erly orientated flow than anticipated, resulting in that trough being shunted further East. The end result would be more shower activity being pushed inland around the region.

Perhaps wishful thinking there, but it's something that could realistically happen.

Look out for disturbances in the flow too, the flow is very unstable - anything could happen. Just wait and see, I'm sure many people will be pleasantly surprised.

[Staffordshire]

Cheshire gap streamer maybe?

[Backtrack]

Looked on CFS. Still a long way off though

I wasn't looking at the CFS, but I do like that model

Check that for rain.

May is one of my favourite months of the year. That best not verify.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Bt your description of the temp drop tomoz sounds awfully familiar. The same thing happened last year or yr before when we had nley

[Backtrack]

Bt your description of the temp drop tomoz sounds awfully familiar. The same thing happened last year or yr before when we had nley

It's going to be one epic drop in temperature tomorrow. Keep an eye on my weather station (I'll plug it in)

I love the way this thread has come back to life since I started posting again. Thanks guys. :winky:

[Martin M]

I wasn't looking at the CFS, but I do like that model

Check that for rain.

May is one of my favourite months of the year. That best not verify.

Hmmm not good if that happens, I know some areas need rain but not that much lol. Could say were due a major flooding event, not had one for a couple of years. Was it 07 with Sheffield and many other areas badly hit? Still a long way off though.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Oh i havent come to life. Ill wait see what happens

[Backtrack]

Hmmm not good if that happens, I know some areas need rain but not that much lol. Could say were due a major flooding event, not had one for a couple of years. Was it 07 with Sheffield and many other areas badly hit? Still a long way off though.

Somewhere in Yorkshire yeah. Just near my nan's house in Doncaster, so must of been around the Sheffield area.

Doubt that chart'll verify.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I wasn't looking at the CFS, but I do like that model

Check that for rain.

May is one of my favourite months of the year. That best not verify.

Hope that dosent come off, May usually a warm settled month

[Martin M]

Somewhere in Yorkshire yeah. Just near my nan's house in Doncaster, so must of been around the Sheffield area.

Doubt that chart'll verify.

Yeah it most likely won't. Personally I think we will have another early 'summer' like the past 2-3 years with a dry ish May to June then going down the gutter again.

[Backtrack]

Yeah it most likely won't. Personally I think we will have another early 'summer' like the past 2-3 years with a dry ish May to June then going down the gutter again.

I like that better though. It's lovely. May has a strong sun index so you can easily get a tan, and can produce temperatures in excess of 27C. bliss.

July & August (supposedly the warmest summer months) are always total garbage. May & June are usually the best. December, January, May & June are the best months IMO

[AutumnMists]

I wasn't looking at the CFS, but I do like that model

Check that for rain.

May is one of my favourite months of the year. That best not verify.

Cheers for the model pal - never come across that one before. Would like to see a bit of a change compared to recently; a not so good May (as the model you posted suggests) I suppose possibly gives a chance of a better July and August.

The only thing I don't like about a model like the one you posted (in terms of rainfall) is that if we were to have a month with well below rainfall or well above rainfall - it is likely it would affect a good proportion of the UK although the model appears to show areas of well above average, average and some below average.

Anyway, my understanding of models isn't so good at all - and i'm sure what I am saying isn't correct hehe

[Martin M]

I like that better though. It's lovely. May has a strong sun index so you can easily get a tan, and can produce temperatures in excess of 27C. bliss.

July & August (supposedly the warmest summer months) are always total garbage. May & June are usually the best. December, January, May & June are the best months IMO

Yeah May and June 09 were really good I thought. At least it felt hot when doing my D of E expedition in the heat at the end of May. One of the rare occasions I've just wanted a walk to end. Although the pub at the end of it felt good :lol:.

April last year was nice too, I was in Scotland for a week then but expected it to be chilly so didn't pack any shorts Then the week after the place I stayed at, had to be evacuated due to a wild fire a mile down the glen

[Backtrack]

Yeah May and June 09 were really good I thought. At least it felt hot when doing my D of E expedition in the heat at the end of May. One of the rare occasions I've just wanted a walk to end. Although the pub at the end of it felt good :lol:.

April last year was nice too, I was in Scotland for a week then but expected it to be chilly so didn't pack any shorts Then the week after the place I stayed at, had to be evacuated due to a wild fire a mile down the glen

Haha, I've always wanted to do Duke of Edinburgh. Bet that pint was a godsend haha!

April was wonderful last year. I want a repeat please!!

Does anyone have the stats for April 2011 please?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18z seems to give max of 5C for sunday, overdoing temps hopefully, certainly some sort of streamer showing

think wales thread closing on sunday, hope regional threads not closing down after the weekend snow/frost

Edited February 17, 2012 by snow? norfolk n chance

[Backtrack]

Found them!

England diary of highlights

With high pressure influencing the weather for most of the month, it was much warmer, drier and sunnier than normal. The mean temperature was 4.0 °C above the 1971–2000 average and it was the warmest April in the series from 1910, being 0.6 °C warmer than April 2007 (now ranked second). In central England, it was the warmest April for over 350 years. The daily maximum temperatures in particular were well above normal, by as much as 6 °C in the south-east. Rainfall was below normal in all areas — exceptionally so over much of southern, central and eastern England where less than 10% of normal rainfall was recorded. It was the second successive very dry month in these areas. Many places in the eastern half of England recorded less than 1 mm of rain. Provisionally, it was the 6th driest April in the series from 1910 and in East Anglia only April 2007 was drier. Sunshine amounts were generally around 150% of normal, making it the sunniest April in the series from 1929.

1st to 5th

A mild southerly flow was replaced by a cooler westerly one on 2nd as a cold front moved eastwards. Overnight into 2nd, thundery rain spread northwards into the south-west and later into northern areas. As the cloud cleared it become warm in East Anglia with a high of 20.3 °C at Writtle (Essex). More heavy showers followed on 3rd with thunder, except in the south-east where it remained dry. A cold night followed with –0.2 °C at Topcliffe (North Yorkshire). A very wet day in Cumbria on 5th, with 102 mm recorded at Seathwaite (Cumbria) between midnight on 4th and midday on 5th.

6th to 11th

After further heavy rain overnight into 6th, high pressure brought a period of dry, sunny weather with light winds and above normal temperatures. There were some mild nights, with a minimum of 13.4 °C at Boulmer (Northumberland) early on 6th. The sunshine in the south helped the temperature rise to 23.6 °C at St James’s Park (London) on 6th. It was very warm for April for much of this period with temperatures rising above 20 °C each day. Another weak front produced some patchy rain in northern areas on 11th but elsewhere it stayed dry and warm, with 21.5 °C at Shoeburyness (Essex).

12th to 16th

Becoming less settled with some outbreaks of showery rain, chiefly in the north and west. A cold night into 12th saw an air frost in parts of the Midlands. Some showers spread into eastern coasts during the day with the best of the sunshine in the south-west. Daytime temperatures were close to normal. Another local frost on the morning of 13th with –0.1 °C at Benson (Oxfordshire). The day became cloudy with some patchy rain. Although some parts started misty on 14th and 15th, the cloud soon broke but with a few light showers. On 16th a few showers again broke out across East Anglia but most parts stayed dry with a high of 19.1 °C at Astwood Bank (Worcestershire).

17th to 24th

Pressure then built again, with a warm, south-easterly air flow. It was dry with sunshine on 17th after early mist and fog cleared and it became warm again with 21.1 °C at Wisley (Surrey). The 18th was another generally sunny, warm day with 19.9 °C at Blackpool (Lancashire). A chilly start to 19th with –0.7 °C at Exeter airport (Devon) but then further sunny, very warm weather with temperatures reaching 25 °C in the London area. Some sea fog affected North Sea coasts on 20th and 21st but temperatures again reached 24 to 25 °C in the south-east. Some fog and frost in the north-east early on 22nd with –0.4 °C at Redesdale Camp (Northumberland). Showers and thunderstorms then affected the south-west but it was very warm and sunny in the south-east with 26.9 °C at St James’s Park. The heat peaked on 23rd with 27.8 °C at Wisley (Surrey), making it the warmest April day since 1949. The high temperatures sparked off heavy showers and thunderstorms with some locally torrential downpours; Santon Downham (Norfolk) reported 19.8 mm in one hour. The 24th stayed fine, with 25.3 °C at Solent (Hampshire).

25th to 26th

A cold front across northern areas weakened as it moved southwards, bringing some cloud and rain. The 25th was another very warm day in the south with 24.0 °C at Solent but sea fog affected the coast of East Anglia. Outbreaks of rain moved southwards on 26th into southern England with everywhere becoming cooler.

27th to 30th

Another generally dry spell with an easterly flow becoming established. A few showers developed along eastern then southern coasts and isolated thunderstorms affected the south Midlands on 29th, but otherwise it was generally dry with some sunshine. Although most parts were again dry and sunny on 30th, a line of thunderstorms broke out through central Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset.

Edited February 17, 2012 by Backtrack

[AutumnMists]

...

Does anyone have the stats for April 2011 please?

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Manchester_Airport/04-2011/33340.htm

Above shows that it rained once from 16-30th with very pleasant temperatures - I remember in April 2011 also being able to have early morning walks on the moors with frosts on the ground regularly due to night lows being reasonably low

[Backtrack]

Cheers for the model pal - never come across that one before. Would like to see a bit of a change compared to recently; a not so good May (as the model you posted suggests) I suppose possibly gives a chance of a better July and August.

The only thing I don't like about a model like the one you posted (in terms of rainfall) is that if we were to have a month with well below rainfall or well above rainfall - it is likely it would affect a good proportion of the UK although the model appears to show areas of well above average, average and some below average.

Anyway, my understanding of models isn't so good at all - and i'm sure what I am saying isn't correct hehe

Hmm, you'll probably find that having regional specific rainfall %'s as shown in the chart shown above have many advantages over that which just shows nationwide totals as per the CFS.

You can find it on the NW Extra full sub for a tenner a month mate.

[AutumnMists]

Hmm, you'll probably find that having regional specific rainfall %'s as shown in the chart shown above have many advantages over that which just shows nationwide totals as per the CFS.

You can find it on the NW Extra full sub for a tenner a month mate.

Cheers ... learning a lot more from these forums!

[Backtrack]

http://www.tutiempo....-2011/33340.htm

Above shows that it rained once from 16-30th with very pleasant temperatures - I remember in April 2011 also being able to have early morning walks on the moors with frosts on the ground regularly due to night lows being reasonably low

Your area is very frost-prone. Must of been absolutely stunning waking up to frost, then seeing temperatures climb to 20C by mid-afternoon.

[AutumnMists]

Your area is very frost-prone. Must of been absolutely stunning waking up to frost, then seeing temperatures climb to 20C by mid-afternoon.

It wasn't as easy as it sounds though ... I had to walk up onto the moors 520m a.s.l to find frosts.

[Backtrack]

It wasn't as easy as it sounds though ... I had to walk up onto the moors 520m a.s.l to find frosts.

Sounds like fun to me. Can't wait to drive. First stop...that place.

[J10]

18z seems to give max of 5C for sunday, overdoing temps hopefully, certainly some sort of streamer showing

think wales thread closing on sunday, hope regional threads not closing down after the weekend snow/frost

All that is really happening is that a new thread will take its place, called Spring Discussion thread, as nothing make snow more likely than doing this, this is entirely my doing.

No decision has been made to the regional threads.

[AutumnMists]

Sounds like fun to me. Can't wait to drive. First stop...that place.

hehee, I'm still too young for driving too ....

If your ever going to go up there ... watch out for a painful climbing of 300m in around 1.5 miles!

Quite a unique place though is Saddleworth Moor.

[Martin M]

Sounds like fun to me. Can't wait to drive. First stop...that place.

Trust me it aint what it's cracked up to be. Insurance prices and fuel prices take the fun away very quickly, that and all the nutters you have to share the roads with lol.

Been quite busy this week, so not had chance to come on here much. From what I gather, snow chances are from tomorrow night onwards?

Edited February 17, 2012 by Martin M