North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 8

[Lancashire Lass]

Latest NMM 12z run up to midnight Saturday.

[karyo]

The 12z UKMO is also looking pretty dire for precipitation. Too much of a northerly in the wind and pressure quickly rising from the west.

At least it's still looking good for a frost! lol

Karyo

[pip22]

very Mild weather doesnt mean a t-shirt weather it could be wet and very stormy

My kind of weather

Look at the deep low in the Atlantic it may be coming this way. Look at Tuesday's pressure chart on here http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167. It is very supportive for that low to develop into a extra-tropical storm.

Edited February 17, 2012 by pip21

[jpwild]

very Mild weather doesnt mean a t-shirt weather it could be wet and very stormy

Hopefully, mild with party cloudy skies would suit me fine

Just saw some charts in the model thread. Have to look a bit hard - some temps look like '18', but could be 16 or 13. Either way mid-teens for this time of the month is welcome, and hopefully be consistent and improve.

What we could do with though is mild temps and a period of weather that's a mixture of all Rain in the morning, lovely warm rain to soak the soils and then sun in the afternoon - or vice versa. Encourage teh birds to sing, buds to grow and spring will be here soon enough for us all to enjoy.l

Bored with this none event of a winter.

Lovely:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120217;time=12;ext=147;file=ukmaxtemp;sess=4660b276020085e9b8701c94e3bee93f;

Edited February 17, 2012 by jpwild

[SnowObsessor90]

So I suppose it's now looking likely that I won't seeing any more lying snow for at least another 12 months since I last had some back in December?

Pathetic.

[pip22]

This is what I call lovely

Edited February 17, 2012 by pip21

[jpwild]

So I suppose it's now looking likely that I won't seeing any more lying snow for at least another 12 months since I last had some back in December?

Pathetic.

Good news though is spring may come early

[AutumnMists]

So I suppose it's now looking likely that I won't seeing any more lying snow for at least another 12 months since I last had some back in December?

Pathetic.

There is always the chance of it falling in November (11 months of no lying snow).

[SnowObsessor90]

Good news though is spring may come early

Indeed, I'm already looking towards the summer now nevermind spring.

Hoping a nice, warm and sunny one this year as it's been long overdue.

[AutumnMists]

Indeed, I'm already looking towards the summer now nevermind spring.

Hoping a nice, warm and sunny one this year as it's been long overdue.

When would you say was the last decent Summer? 2006?

I can't really remember a good one for quite a while

[SnowObsessor90]

When would you say was the last decent Summer? 2006?

I can't really remember a good one for quite a while

Me neither but the one that seems to be brought up quite a bit on here is 2005.

[AutumnMists]

Me neither but the one that seems to be brought up quite a bit on here is 2005.

I do believe early talks are going for a very warm May (yet another early start to Summer like the last two ... let's hope this doesn't mean Autumn arriving in August).

[Backtrack]

I do believe early talks are going for a very warm May (yet another early start to Summer like the last two ... let's hope this doesn't mean Autumn arriving in August).

A very warm May?

Check out the latest long range charts. If these are correct, it'll be a very wet, cool, cloudy May!

[jpwild]

A very warm May?

Check out the latest long range charts. If these are correct, it'll be a very wet, cool, cloudy May!

IF

I'm still waiting for this deep cold we've meant to of had.

Meh.

[Luke McDonnell]

Hi BT,

How is it going for snow chances tomorrow do you think we will see anything it certainly is going to be cold enough for snow tomorrow night into Sunday morning, come on mate, I want to see something - I think we deserve it!

Even without snow an impressive front as well - how much do you think we could see temperatures drop by over a short period of time?

Luke

Edited February 17, 2012 by Luke McDonnell

[Backtrack]

Hi BT,

How is it going for snow chances tomorrow do you think we will see anything it certainly is going to be cold enough for snow tomorrow night into Sunday morning, come on mate, I want to see something - I think we deserve it!

Luke

Evening Luke.

Looking VERY promising for tomorrow, especially for us in the South of the region. It will certainly be cold enough, both at the surface & at 850hPa, with no warm sector around 3,000ft, annihilating the risk of freezing rain.

Latest FAX charts look interesting developing a trough feature running through to North Wales, which suggests streamer to me.

Any locations North of this trough will have the greatest shower activity. Expect them to become highly energised for a time as energy is injected into the atmosphere from this trough feature.

For those worrying about the temperature drop tomorrow, as the two cold fronts pass through, there could be a drop in temperature as much as 7-9C in the space of a couple of hours. Below is my annotated FAX chart for tomorrow.

Edited February 17, 2012 by Backtrack

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hi BT,

How is it going for snow chances tomorrow do you think we will see anything it certainly is going to be cold enough for snow tomorrow night into Sunday morning, come on mate, I want to see something - I think we deserve it!

Even without snow an impressive front as well - how much do you think we could see temperatures drop by over a short period of time?

Luke

where are you Luke? no location in sig or profile

[Backtrack]

where are you Luke? no location in sig or profile

He lives in Liverpool. Unsure why he changed his account though, there is a name change option.

[Never snows where i live]

BT, whats your hunch on depth for our area?

[jpwild]

Hopefully no snow here tomorrow. Snow only interests me if it's over a foot - otherwise it means nothing to me.

[Backtrack]

BT, whats your hunch on depth for our area?

Dusting to 2-3cm.

[damianslaw]

Evening Luke.

Looking VERY promising for tomorrow, especially for us in the South of the region. It will certainly be cold enough, both at the surface & at 850hPa, with no warm sector around 3,000ft, annihilating the risk of freezing rain.

Latest FAX charts look interesting developing a trough feature running through to North Wales, which suggests streamer to me.

Any locations North of this trough will have the greatest shower activity. Expect them to become highly energised for a time as energy is injected into the atmosphere from this trough feature.

For those worrying about the temperature drop tomorrow, as the two cold fronts pass through, there could be a drop in temperature as much as 7-9C in the space of a couple of hours. Below is my annotated FAX chart for tomorrow.

Yes the whole region will have very favourable conditions for low level snow showers tomorrow evening through to Sunday morning. Uppers and dewpoints suggest no marginality and with a trough feature progged to run into southern parts of the district - I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few in the south of the region i.e. merseyside and cheshire wake up to a snow cover Sunday morning - nothing exceptional but some lucky spots may see an inch. Much will depend on the position of the trough - it may take a more westerly path meaning N wales is hit hardest or indeed a more easterly path meaning northern parts including here sees some action. Of course convection will ensure some homegrown showers off the irish sea quickly develop during tomorrow afternoon so anywhere could see a snow shower before dusk arrives.

I've been waiting for these synoptics all winter - what a pity the northerly is going to be so short lived - but its better than nothing and Sunday should be a lovely crisp winters day before we see the return of what looks a wetter windier version of the working week just gone - which it has to be said has been an absolute dull fest - there has been nothing to discuss since last weekend..

[Never snows where i live]

Dusting to 2-3cm.

That would do for me ta

[Never snows where i live]

We do seem to do well from a nwestly rather than an easterly that everyone goes on about in the model thread

[AutumnMists]

A very warm May?

Check out the latest long range charts. If these are correct, it'll be a very wet, cool, cloudy May!

Looked on CFS. Still a long way off though