North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 8

[cheshire snow]

Rain clearing southeast as much brighter and sunnier conditions spread from the north. Some sleet and snow showers developing, these turning more frequent during the evening. Breezy and feeling colder. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Updated: 0406 on Fri 17 Feb 2012

Sleet and snow showers overnight into Sunday, but most places having a dry, sunny and cold day. Turning milder and windier next week with outbreaks of rain at times.

Updated: 0406 on Fri 17 Feb 2012

This from metoffice outlook today for sat going into Sunday for northwest England but strange that there is still only a warning out for Scotland :-/

TBH I dont think it warrents a weather warning at the moment,plus weather warnings for our region normaly mean a non-event

i posted last night it will be a now-cast situation and i stick to my guns on that

An unstable NNW flow plenty of showers from the irish sea turning more wintry mid afternoon(sat)into sunday morning,perhaps

a light covering for the lucky few,that is the way i see it going at the moment

C.S

[in the vale]

The issue is the lack of precip. By the time conditions (thickness, DP, 850 etc.) are right for snow (early tomorrow afternoon), the main band of precipitation has already pushed through the area. There may be the odd shower after that (which will certainly fall as snow, esp above 150m) but there won't be anything to get too excited about. I hope I am wrong though as I haven't seen a snowflake this winter.

[Snow free zone]

There is a warning out from the met office for icy roads, sat night into sunday. Also states the potential for slight accumulations of 2-5cm away from the coast.

[cheshire snow]

There is a warning out from the met office for icy roads, sat night into sunday. Also states the potential for slight accumulations of 2-5cm away from the coast.

BT will be happy

Sleet/snow showers becoming more frequent through the evening.....

yes please just one more brief event until this poor winter bows out

C.S

[Luke McDonnell]

Just as a matter of interest why are we looking likely to have a mild second half of February again - we haven't seemed to have had a very cold February (i.e. less than 2.0CET) for a long time - the last time it happened must have been 1986 surely - and why when it looks likely we could get such a month the Azores high edges in and damages that prospect. It is surprising that such a mobile pattern is establishing itself at the tail end of winter - this is the time of year that Northern Blocking is normally at its most evident.

Just as a matter of interest why are we looking likely to have a mild second half of February again - we haven't seemed to have had a very cold February (i.e. less than 2.0CET) for a long time - the last time it happened must have been 1986 surely - and why when it looks likely we could get such a month the Azores high edges in and damages that prospect. agine!

Luke

Edited February 17, 2012 by TonyH
My bad!

[karyo]

Just as a matter of interest why are we looking likely to have a mild second half of February again - we haven't seemed to have had a very cold February (i.e. less than 2.0CET) for a long time - the last time it happened must have been 1986 surely - and why when it looks likely we could get such a month the Azores high edges in and damages that prospect. It is surprising that such a mobile pattern is establishing itself at the tail end of winter - this is the time of year that Northern Blocking is normally at its most evident.

Also on that subject someone posted in the MT that March does not look likley to deliver much as far as cold and snow is concerned - but I think he was basing this on the CFS which will probably be unreliable this far out. I would like to see a good March as far as cold or snow is concerned - what are the odds of March being colder than December (CET wise) considering how mild December was - quite good I would imagine!

Luke

The CFS is not looking promising for winter weather in March. Unless it changes but it will have to do so pretty soon.

Karyo

[SparkleS]

Its only forecasting ice for us, only just, cant see any snow for us on the met office.

[chiffer]

If you read the ice warning it should talk about snow, don't think they've bothered with the snow warning because ice will be a greater risk opposed to snow

[Lancashire Lass]

Latest METO Forecast for NW England:

'Sleet and snow showers will extend from the northwest on Saturday and last through Saturday night into Sunday morning. These are likely to lead to widespread ice developing on untreated surfaces. In addition some 2-5cm of snow is likely to accumulate locally away from immediate north and west facing coastal fringes.'

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html

[Lancashire Lass]

Matthew Hugo@MattHugo81

Nice little trough progged for Sat night to bring a risk of sleet and snow showers to parts of Wales/NW Eng - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

[TonyH]

Just as a matter of interest why are we looking likely to have a mild second half of February again - we haven't seemed to have had a very cold February (i.e. less than 2.0CET) for a long time - the last time it happened must have been 1986 surely - and why when it looks likely we could get such a month the Azores high edges in and damages that prospect. agine!

Luke

1991? That was cold

[Luke McDonnell]

1991? That was cold

I though the second half of February 1991 was mild so that offset the cold meaning overall it wasn't a very cold month with a CET less than 2.0C. Anyway myself I would really like to see some snow this weekend - I found it quite strange that we got snow from the cold zonality in December but the recent continental cold spell came to nought as far as snow is concered for my area. I notice that the GFS shows some showers or precipitation in the Irish Sea Saturday night/Sunday morning - could they deliver the goods?

EDIT: I think it is a trough as shown on the fax charts. That should give us a chance of precipitation surely.

Luke

Edited February 17, 2012 by Luke McDonnell

[cheshire snow]

Matthew Hugo@MattHugo81

Nice little trough progged for Sat night to bring a risk of sleet and snow showers to parts of Wales/NW Eng - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

Yes LL

That little feature needs watching could set up an irish sea streamer for parts of the NW

C.S

[TonyH]

I though the second half of February 1991 was mild so that offset the cold meaning overall it wasn't a very cold month with a CET less than 2.0C.

Luke

Feb 1991 was very cold overall, cet 1.5c.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

This is our best chance of snowfall all winter

[cheshire snow]

This is our best chance of snowfall all winter

Yes quite agree,however i think it will be tomorrow evening before the showers get going

tomorrow afternoon looks dry at the moment

C.S

[SnowObsessor90]

This is our best chance of snowfall all winter

And the last in all probability. Not the ideal scenario but given how awful this winter has been you cannot complain I suppose.

[gareth73]

With temps at 9.5c here in west manchester it is hard to see to seep how its going below freezing this weekend with snow showeres!

[cheshire snow]

And the last in all probability. Not the ideal scenario but given how awful this winter has been you cannot complain I suppose.

You should be in prime posistion tomorrow evening,most of the shower activity looks like been this side of the M6

saying that hope everyone in the region can see some snow

C.S

[SnowObsessor90]

You should be in prime posistion tomorrow evening,most of the shower activity looks like been this side of the M6

saying that hope everyone in the region can see some snow

C.S

well I live just up road from you here in Runcorn so here's hoping

[cheshire snow]

With temps at 9.5c here in west manchester it is hard to see to seep how its going below freezing this weekend with snow showeres!

Because its not going to turn colder until the front clears through sat morning,also with this set up you dont need it

below freezing for snow

850,s dropping through the day

DP falling through the day

any ppn during sat night/sun morning will be wintry

C.S

well I live just up road from you here in Runcorn so here's hoping

HA HA BT country

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm away from coast, yeah decent little feature on fax charts, may get a dusting, although my elevation may be too low

[karyo]

With temps at 9.5c here in west manchester it is hard to see to seep how its going below freezing this weekend with snow showeres!

Temperatures should remain above freezing for the most part, apart from the early hours of Sun and then Sun evening.

Anyway, according to the 12z gfs most of the shower activity is likely in the are of North Wales and the southwestern extremities of our region.

Karyo

Edited February 17, 2012 by karyo

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes winds looking a bit too northerly now.....it's a fine line

[jpwild]

Net Weather force cast has me for double digit temps next week.

Hopefully, the hairdrying will get switched ona bit early and we can all enjoy a nice early spring

Shorts weather is not too far away.