Arctic Ice Discussion (The Melt)

[Gray-Wolf]

http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_09_15/Methane-emissions-discovered-in-Arctic-Ocean/

Well, will this be the first of many? last year the structures had grown to over 1 km now we have 'fields of emissions' of the same size?

[reef]

New low records again on Cryosphere and IJIS again today:

3,475,781 km2:

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

2,234,010 km2:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png

It surely cant be long now before it starts to recover?

[Gray-Wolf]

i didn't expect things to run long at all reef (shows what little i know!). It must be tied in with subduction of the fresh cold and replacement by warmer ,saltier waters? Either via events like the GAC12 or by the system Catlin noted in 2011. maybe in future years I'll be less hasty to see a 'record' rate of ice reformation in early Sept?

That said warm 'uppers' will not help things and if the circulation is partly driven by low ice levels then this may be a sign of things to come?

The Hudson Bay also showed us delayed ice formation a few years back (due to warm water /weather patterns) so maybe we will even go as long as Oct before significant re-freeze takes over???

[BornFromTheVoid]

That IJIS loss yesterday was huge for the time of year.

The September loss so far isn't quite exceptional yet though.

Here's the losses from September 1st to the minimum since 2003.

2003- 186,094

2004- 108,906

2005- 334,375

2006- 211,719

2007- 356,407

2008- 249,843

2009- 173,906

2010- 518,750

2011- 207,188

2012- 322,188 (so far)

[Gray-Wolf]

As a throw back to a conversation i had with songster (regarding 250m/pixel ice coverage and ice surface area vs mass) I came across a new 'blog' by Dr Stroeve;

http://iceedge2012.wordpress.com/

and i hope her recent (last week) observations lend a little more credence to my concerns in Aug about floe size and the impacts of bottom melt. By now the ice I imagined being present will have disappeared so the floes she decribes are the 'remnants' of what was present post GAC12 but does illustrate that the mechanical degradation of the pack does lead to enhanced meltout due to the increase in surface area to mass we get once a pack becomes smashed.

The other thing being she is at 83N and can still not find a floe big enough to fill a pixel on modis 250m scale i.e. all the 'solid ice' we view beyond 80N is really mush, we do have less ice than the satellites are 'showing' us due to the limitations of the equipment. That is a worry.

[Gray-Wolf]

We did our 400ppm in the Arctic first. We were told that Antarctica did not start to accumulate is ice until CO2 dropped below 450ppm. From what we've seen in the Arctic levels of less than 400ppm started the slow ice loss , maybe 350ppm?, so we have ,in my mind 2 significant numbers one the start of the melt and one the 'ice free' world.

I wonder if 'halfway' means that if we stopped now we'd only loose half the planets ice or if that is too simplistic? You can see why we will inherit multi meter sea level rise no matter what we do (imagine the lag times involved here??)....ho hum.

[knocker]

So................................and climbing.

https://sites.google...rclimategraphs/

Edited September 17, 2012 by knocker

[Interitus]

As a throw back to a conversation i had with songster (regarding 250m/pixel ice coverage and ice surface area vs mass) I came across a new 'blog' by Dr Stroeve;

http://iceedge2012.wordpress.com/

and i hope her recent (last week) observations lend a little more credence to my concerns in Aug about floe size and the impacts of bottom melt. By now the ice I imagined being present will have disappeared so the floes she decribes are the 'remnants' of what was present post GAC12 but does illustrate that the mechanical degradation of the pack does lead to enhanced meltout due to the increase in surface area to mass we get once a pack becomes smashed.

The other thing being she is at 83N and can still not find a floe big enough to fill a pixel on modis 250m scale i.e. all the 'solid ice' we view beyond 80N is really mush, we do have less ice than the satellites are 'showing' us due to the limitations of the equipment. That is a worry.

Interesting blog. The research ship Polar Stern synop report shows that it has finally found some decent ice -

DBLK 17181 99863 10603 41/93 91903 11025 21027 40253 53003 75155 89/// 22282 05018 ICE 58/95

the key parts translate as

5 - cover 9/10 or more, but not 10/10 (7/8 to less than 8 / 8; very close pack ice

8 - Predominantly medium and thick first-year ice with some old ice (usually more than 2 meters thick)

5 - Ship in ice difficult to penetrate; conditions not changing

But this is at 86°N! The air and water temperatures are -2.5°C and -1.8°C.

Not had any synop data from the Healy with the sea ice information group for a couple of days so don't know the state of the ice but temperatures are lower now and from the web cam it looks like they're getting some refreeze in that area http://icefloe.net/A....php?album=2012

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS extent has updated the last 2 days. A drop to a new record low occurred on the 16th (3,489,063km2), with an almost 50k increase yesterday, seemingly from a jump in concentration of the Laptev side of the ice.

Meanwhile, the 7.5C-10C surface temp anomalies are really spreading across the Arctic now.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01b.fnl.html

[Gray-Wolf]

I suppose the 'laptev bite' had to close up some time? Jeeze it had open water within 350km of the pole and ,if the reports from Prof Stroeve are any indication, closer than that???

We should also be starting to see atmospheric temp anoms above the open water now also? Sad to say our first U.S. 'cold intrusion' seems to be on but only at the cost of pumping warm air up into Alaska? Straight from their air con to heating for some it would seem (and the energy to run such?).

Maybe we have now seen the JAXA plot bottom out for the year now? I know we have rough weather in Beaufort but that will only delat freeze there? I can't see it still destroying ice though?

[BornFromTheVoid]

A significant increase in the NSIDC extent yesterday of 66k. This is enough to increase the 5 day mean for the first time since late March, from 3.4122 million km2 (12th-16th) to 3.4132 million km2 (13th-17th).

Might we have finally passed the minimum?

[Coast]

The sea ice in the Arctic Ocean dropped below the previous all-time record set in 2007. This year also marks the first time that there has been less than 4 million square kilometers (1.54 million square miles) of sea ice since satellite observations began in 1979. This animation shows the 2012 time-series of ice extent using sea ice concentration data from the DMSP SSMI/S satellite sensor. The black area represents the daily average (median) sea ice extent over the 1979-2000 time period. Layered over top of that are the daily satellite measurements from January 1 -- September 14, 2012. A rapid melt begins in July, whereby the 2012 ice extents fall far below the historical average. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (www.nsidc.org) will confirm the final minimum ice extent data and area once the melt stabilizes, usually in mid-September.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cryosphere Today suggesting it may be too early to call the minimum! A large drop on the latest update of 65k, bring the current area to within 40k of a new record low.

The area anomaly has also climbed now, up to 2.582 million, which is closing quickly on the 2007 anomaly record of 2.635million, set in mid October.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmmm..........

[cheeky_monkey]

some possible record breaking temperatures spreading north through western Canada up into the arctic basin in the next 5 days or so.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for that C-M! I'd noted the rough patch of weather down the U.S. eastern seaboard yesterday (due to jet positioning) and take it the WAA, from the Gulf, is taking a long haul through the U.S./Canada?

[Gael_Force]

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/ecmwf/2012091900/arctic/ecmwf_t850_anom_arctic_loop.php

Huge positive anomalies at H850 but will that have much effect at the surface at this time of year?

[stewfox]

Cryosphere Today suggesting it may be too early to call the minimum! A large drop on the latest update of 65k, bring the current area to within 40k of a new record low.

The area anomaly has also climbed now, up to 2.582 million, which is closing quickly on the 2007 anomaly record of 2.635million, set in mid October.

Whats going on with the volume ?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Whats going on with the volume ?

Was lowest on record by early August, but hasn't updated in a few weeks.

http://psc.apl.washi...volume-anomaly/

[paul tall]

Meanwhile the Antarctic Ice cover today is the highest ever recorded for the date, and the 5th highest ever.

But we're not allowed to talk about that right?

Yin and yang if you ask me.

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/09/19/ice-area-sets-another-record-high/

[Summer Sun]

Record minimum for Arctic sea ice

Arctic sea ice has reached its minimum extent for the year, setting a record for the lowest summer cover since satellite data collection began. The 2012 extent has fallen to 3.41 million sq km (1.32 million sq mi) - 50% lower than the 1979-2000 average. Arctic sea ice has long been regarded as a sensitive indicator of changes in the climate. Scientists who have been analyzing the startling melt think it is part of a fundamental change. "We are now in uncharted territory," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Center (NSIDC) in Colorado, US.

"While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur." This year's minimum caps a summer of low ice extents in the Arctic. On 26 August, sea ice extent fell to 4.10 million sq km (1.58 million sq mi), breaking the previous record low set on 18 September 2007 of 4.17 million sq km (1.61 million sq mi). On 4 September, it fell below four million sq km (1.54 million sq mi), another first in the 33-year satellite record. "The strong late season decline is indicative of how thin the ice cover is," said NSIDC scientist Walt Meier.

"Ice has to be quite thin to continue melting away as the sun goes down and Fall approaches." Scientists say they are observing fundamental changes in sea ice cover. The Arctic used to be dominated by multiyear ice, or ice that survived through several years. Recently, the region is characterised by seasonal ice cover and large areas are now prone to completely melt away in summer. The sea ice extent is defined as the total area covered by at least 15% of ice, and varies from year to year because of changeable weather. However, ice extent has shown a dramatic overall decline over the past 30 years. A 2011 study published in Nature journal, used proxies such as ice cores and lake sediments to reconstruct sea ice extent in the Arctic over the last 1,450 years.

The results suggest the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice may be unprecedented over this period. Dr Julienne Stroeve, a research scientist with the NSIDC, is currently aboard a Greenpeace ship in Svalbard, Norway, having just returned from a research expedition to assess the region's record melt. She said the new record suggested the Arctic "may have entered a new climate era, where a combination of thinner ice together with warmer air and ocean temperatures result in more ice loss each summer". She continued: "The loss of summer sea ice has led to unusual warming of the Arctic atmosphere, that in turn impacts weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, that can result in persistent extreme weather such as droughts, heat waves and flooding." If the current melting trend during summer months continues, there will be opportunities as well as challenges.

Some ships have already been cutting their journey times by sailing a previously impassable route north of Russia. Oil, gas and mining firms are all planning to exploit rich resources thought to be held by the Arctic, although they are strongly opposed by environment campaigners.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19652329

[Interitus]

The PIOMAS ice volume by 02/09/12 was 3407km^3 compared to 4231 last year - almost 19.5% less.

[Interitus]

Meanwhile the Antarctic Ice cover today is the highest ever recorded for the date, and the 5th highest ever.

But we're not allowed to talk about that right?

Yin and yang if you ask me.

http://stevengoddard...er-record-high/

This is the arctic thread

[BornFromTheVoid]

Meanwhile the Antarctic Ice cover today is the highest ever recorded for the date, and the 5th highest ever.

But we're not allowed to talk about that right?

Yin and yang if you ask me.

http://stevengoddard...er-record-high/

You can talk about it, and it has been talked about, in the Antarctic Ice Discussion thread.

[ghrud]

You can talk about it, and it has been talked about, in the Antarctic Ice Discussion thread.

Perhaps a thread should be started where we can talk about both without being chastised. Climate is a global phenomenon after all?