Model Watch For Tours 1 & 2

[Cookie]

I think I should just avoid this thread

[Dorsetbred]

I think I should just avoid this thread

Oh no the summer equivalent of the winter MOD thread....

Edited April 26, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Paul Sherman]

Well Well Well

What a difference 1 year makes eh ??

The old Canned Tour 1 would be pretty damn manic this year by the looks of the short range outlook.

Today would have been the travel day and with a 5% Risk within 100 miles of DFW Would have got a bonus chase day today, following this will probably be 2 Solid Slight Risks over Western Oklahoma and SW Kansas before moving North on Tuesday for possibly Iowa and then a more substantial Risk over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Illinois for Wednesday, still looking active after this with a progressive zonal flow and ample moisture.

Ho Hum there is always 2013 for an early Tour I suppose

[smicksworld]

well paul im glad u predicted tour 1 to be moved forward,seems all the action came slighty early

least now and hopefully all members will get storm activity :>),had a lot of trouble with me pc last couple of months,so cudnt see wat was going on at the forums,but its great that you keep us up

to date when u can,you do have alot of organising but im sure it pays off when u get to see the smile

on our faces when the tornado's arrive on call :>),really looking forward to T4 coming up soon,it flew in

thank fook,il be der early two days b4 hand amd same hotel as normal,so goodluck and safe trip and most importantly see lots and save lots for us too :>)

[Stu Robinson]

I too am monitoring this thread as I also chasing May 14 to May 20. However I can add a week ether side to make up 2 weeks chasing.

Looking at the possible pre week add on 5^th May – May 13^th

Some good news and bad!

12Z 2804 GFS say death ridge with a pesky 500mb Hudson bay low forming and sticking. However this seems to be only a 3-5 day issue which I just do not buy. Normally we will see a 5-7 ridge sometime between May 8 until May 22^nd so I am guessing that GFS is just wrong with this evolution

The good news is that the GFS is rarely correct > 180 hours out so with that in mind I am glad that it says ridge because it is almost always wrong. This far out I am actually glad that it does not show a digging west trough.

[Cloud]

Looks slighter better in the long range European BUT the west coast upper low is not progressive.

Edited April 29, 2012 by nzstorm

[Paul Sherman]

At the moment would not trust the models 1 bit at all. This coming week looked like the only chances were in the Upper Mississippi Valley and we now have 4-5 days of Risks around, granted Tornado chances are slim but it would have been a very active start to Tour 1 ( Pretty Much As I Expected With Our Luck)

Could go either way for the start of Tour 2 But With Ample Moisture There Are Risks Popping up all over the place atm.

[D-J-V]

I am feeling good about Tour 2, as Paul said with the abundent supply of moisture there is a good chance of activity, large hailers and lots of lightning. Still time for the elements to come together to give any potential storms a tornadic element. Can't believe Tour 1 though, typical. That cheeky bonus chase day would have been a great start!

[Dorsetbred]

From "Tornado Alley Live" todays statement is:

"As April comes to a close with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, May will come in with increased severe weather activity. We are forecasting a very active month of May with many chase opportunities. The weather pattern is continuing to cycle according to the LRC, and the flow aloft may block up a bit over Canada allowing the jet stream to stay strong with severe weather risks regularly through this next month.

We will go into the daily chase forecasts as they increase this week. Today's slight risk is across the southern plains. Good luck on your chases and we will be monitoring them right here."

Edited April 30, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

Whilst searching the spiders web, I came across the following:

http://www.spc.noaa....mlcp&underlay=1

Quite handy for SPC analysis across all their parameters, even selecting the area of interest.

Edited April 30, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Paul Sherman]

As Staff we have to Test Out And blow away the Cobwebs from the year before making sure all the equipment is in good working order..............So seeing as we arrive on the 7th to Set-Up and the Boys on Tour 1 do not arrive until Afternoon on the 9th I have Ordered A Nice Little Practise Session on Tuesday 8th May, Might even let Dave Do The Target and Run The Chase For This One, and seeing as I am sitting next to him I can Slap Him If he makes the wrong moves - Pmsl Hope This Verifies but still 7 Days Out!

[bristolstormchaser]

As Staff we have to Test Out And blow away the Cobwebs from the year before making sure all the equipment is in good working order..............So seeing as we arrive on the 7th to Set-Up and the Boys on Tour 1 do not arrive until Afternoon on the 9th I have Ordered A Nice Little Practise Session on Tuesday 8th May, Might even let Dave Do The Target and Run The Chase For This One, and seeing as I am sitting next to him I can Slap Him If he makes the wrong moves - Pmsl Hope This Verifies but still 7 Days Out!

Hope the practice goes well guys, we'll be relying on you that it does And don't get each other nerves yet, we want both of you with us! lol

[Stu Robinson]

Latest ECMWF Op and Ens are a lot less favorable looking with the Western trough splitting and coming out with a positive tilt. Models are up and down at the moment so dont read too much into this run. I am 50/50 on weather to go on the 6th or delay 1 week until the 12th May where i have to help a friend out chasing.

I am hoping to hook up with the NW tour for one day and eve

[Tom Lynch]

The weather will do what the weather will and unlike so many other things it cant be organised. Tough call Stu. I am glad I go not have to make that decision.

how soon is the point of no return ??

Tom

[Dorsetbred]

OK, so if the models don't perform, howz about changing direction and going into Europe?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17914095

[bristolstormchaser]

From what I can see on the weather.com website (i'm only an amateur) :-) the early indications for storms in the Dallas at the start of tour 2, area look good for when we arrive and the day after at least. What do you guys think? I can't seem to find many charts online for when we arrive. Am I looking in the wrong place?

[Arron]

There's the GFS ones here http://www.netweathe...usacharts;sess=

I use http://www.twisterdata.com for the RUC and NAM models, it also has the GFS too

Edited May 2, 2012 by Smokes

[Arron]

Hmm twistadata now showing the RAP model instead of the RUC. I believe this took over at the beginning of may

[bristolstormchaser]

There's the GFS ones here http://www.netweathe...usacharts;sess=

I use http://www.twisterdata.com for the RUC and NAM models, it also has the GFS too

Thanks for that Smokes, will help me to work things out :-)

[Paul Sherman]

3 More Slight Risks Lined up pretty much all for the same sort of risks that we have had this week.

But it would have been Days 5, 6 and 7 of Straight Chasing had Tour 1 gone ahead so they would have been pretty shattered by now with the long drives to the Northern Plains.

Outlook for Tour 2 is still up in the air with Models only reliable upto T72 atm in my opinion.

[Paul Sherman]

Todays Model Runs have got me going

There is no getting away from the facts that after Sunday (Eg when we land to Set-Up) It is looking absolutely Shocking and the Plains go into Close Down Mode for the foreseeable.

I think I know what is coming on the Updates from the SPC Over the Weekend "Potential Too Low" On Their 4-8 Day Outlooks.

This is becoming all too common in May nowadays, perhaps as others have said we should think about April Chasing in the Future

Lets hope we at least get some Upslope Play, there was a similar pattern in 2009 and we still managed 10 chase days

Ultimately most people go for the Tornadoes on these trips, hopefully we can at least see a few Supercells.

Gutted.Com

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Lets hope we at least get some Upslope Play, there was a similar pattern in 2009 and we still managed 10 chase days

I guess you are referring to tour 3 2009?

I loved every minute of it, and it was a very quiet pattern with only slight risks and 'see texts' but you and Nick got us on storms every day!

Hopefully something similar can happen this time, if things do go quiet over there for the early tours.

[Paul Sherman]

Yh was referring to that Period Mark - It was an enjoyable 10 days in the end but ultimately we knew the Tornado Chances were non existant.

As Nathan says you would worry that the Pattern was showing bombing troughs only for it too change in a weeks time, but all the emsembles are showing the same thing at the moment and it is looking hard to see a change with such overwhelming Model agreement atm.

One thing for sure is like Mark says above we will chase absolutely anything (Even a General Thunderstorm or See Text Risk) unlike some of the other US Tour Companies who will not deem them worthy!

Good thing is they are only Computer Models and they can change at a blink of an eye.

Just wanted to make everyone aware although it is not hard to find people talking about the upcoming pattern change as it is all over Facebook and Twitter the last few days.

[Dorsetbred]

Todays Model Runs have got me going

There is no getting away from the facts that after Sunday (Eg when we land to Set-Up) It is looking absolutely Shocking and the Plains go into Close Down Mode for the foreseeable.

I think I know what is coming on the Updates from the SPC Over the Weekend "Potential Too Low" On Their 4-8 Day Outlooks.

Gutted.Com

Paul don't worry, Fort Worth Imax will be showing Star Trek, and Born to Be WIld, possibly still showing Titanica.

Should keep you outta trouble for a while.

Watching the past few days, there's been activity in eastern NE, and MN, with some tornadic activity.

Overall though the season if you look purely on the stats side has been flat, with long spells between major outbreaks.

Remember my last stab suggesting 6weeks between activity, well the period you mention takes me well into week4 and on to week 5, so maybe the maths has something with it.

Check it out:

The early count is in for April.

The 3yr average is:371

April 2012: 228

Well down on the 3 yr average and is almost the same as March, that was an active month and 3x the 3yr average..

Edited May 3, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Cookie]

should ban myself from this thread!