Model Watch For Tours 1 & 2

[bristolstormchaser]

Hmmm Interesting SPC 4-8 Day SWODY

Seems some Northern Plains action from some energy still associated with the Pacific Front which has been up there for an eternity.

Problem is the Risk zone is for Thursday 10th which will be our first Chase Day Proper, so we could have 2 scenarios here

a, The Zone extends further South into Nebraska and the Dakota's and we pick up the guys and burn off 5-6 hours getting to South Central Kansas around Midnight Wednesday Night.

b, There will probably be a risk zone further East across the Upper Mississippi Valley for Friday 11th and we head towards Kansas City.

Scenario A Will be rough on the guys as it will feel like 6am in the Uk by the time we get up there at Midnight, but me and Dave will be fresh for the driving, I am sure the guys can kip in the back on the way up and would not forego chase opportunities ??

At least we are starting to talk about risks already in another wise supposed dead pattern

Will be monitoring the situation and might cancel the first nights stay (Wed 9th May) in the Best Western at Irving.

Hi Paul,

Tim and I had a chat last night and him and I are fine either senario a. or b. Tim and I might have a snooze in the car, I doubt it though as I think the adrenaline will keep us awake! :-) Whatever you think is best for storm chances is good for us, although i'm not sure what the other guy would prefer. Anyway, off to work now, my last day before we leave :-) Will keep in eye out on here, have a great flight guys, see you in Dallas! :-)

[D-J-V]

I have spoken to Nick and he is all for heading north if thats the play we decide we are going to go for.

Things are starting to look more positive

[ANYWEATHER]

As Tom and Paul have noted Sw Texas looks a fair bet still according to the 00zgfs with some Energy coming into play here around the 10th. so all I hope is everything goes well with you on this Tour. Will be following wiith much interest! Best wishes Ian.

[HeadcornWx]

Happy with whatever scenario you think is best guys. Looking forward to it and keeping fingers crossed.

Cheers

Nick

[Tom Lynch]

As Tom and Paul have noted Sw Texas looks a fair bet still according to the 00zgfs with some Energy coming into play here around the 10th. so all I hope is everything goes well with you on this Tour. Will be following wiith much interest! Best wishes Ian.

As I mentioned to paul last niight, flight plans for the first chase day do not have to be filed in advance of Thursday. South west Texas is one option and that option may give an early chase opportunuty.

As for the future set up . This looks like something John would appreciate

Marilyn Monroe's bra? Approaching form the west.

So could it be NM for the second stage of the chase?

Edited May 7, 2012 by Tom Lynch

[John Hanrahan]

I can think of a few SPC convective outlook maps that I could overlay onto this.

Edited May 7, 2012 by John Hanrahan

[Stu Robinson]

Interesting change in today May (07 12Z) models both NAM, & GFS now don’t show the cold front moisture scouring the gulf at 84Hrs.

Instead it seems to stall the font out around San Antonio.

This is a suttle change which *may* yield a few chase opportunities over deep South Texas over the next coming days as that 500mb low ejects.

Normally I would not pay too much attention to this but the fact that NAM also shows the same scenario gives me belief that it may actually happen!

[Tom Lynch]

I can think of a few SPC convective outlook maps that I could overlay onto this.

thought you would like it John

Tom

[Dorsetbred]

Still looking like SW Texas holds whatever is happening for the next couple of days, and then into New Mexico, and the pan handle.

Are we off.....

Edited May 9, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Paul Sherman]

Looking quite good for a Dead Pattern Quentin.

Very Interesting wording for Friday for the Galveston & Houston areas, SPC Mentioning possible Warm Front Tornadoes if conditions keep favourable over the next few days.

End the day on the Gulf of Mexico Coast will be nice and then trip North West for possible Upslope next week

[Dorsetbred]

Are you Nebraska bound on Monday?

Edited May 12, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Paul Sherman]

Next 2 days ( 3 & 4 on the trot) look like New Mexico Chases, not really looking 2 days ahead at the moment Quent.

But I am certainly loving this quiet pattern at the moment, long may it continue, think todays were the 5th Supercells the guys have seen so far.

Will take a peek at the models tomorrow

[Nick F]

Bit quiet after today's slight risk for the rest of the week, though Friday could see storms fire over S/N Dakota and Ern Montana, with maybe enough wind/shear aloft for low end severe weather.

A long haul north though and Saturday is looking better across central Plains - particularly Ern Nebraska/N Kansas, with trough moving in from the west accomapnied by stronger 500mb winds - which could produce supercells:

Usual cavaets apply though this far off.

[Cloud]

Models showing a low level jet over the central plains at the weekend. If the upper level flow can get over the top of it there could be a healthy 10% tornado risk. Wishcasting at this stage but definitely could be a set up in the offering there.

[Nick F]

We should see moisture improve across the Plains by the end of the week, as it gets chance to return north from the Gulf of Mexico, so Saturday we should see a chance for severe storms - probably for the central Plains (Kansas, Nebraska). mid/upper winds don't look particulary strong, so doesn't look like a major tornado producer.