Model Watch For Tours 1 & 2

[Tom Lynch]

should ban myself from this thread!

Calm down , calm down !!!!!

it is 3 May there are about 17 days before i land things can change. i do not start to worry this far out,

Edited May 3, 2012 by Tom Lynch

[Paul Sherman]

Toms most famous saying is

" The Weather Will Do What The Weather Will Do"

[Dorsetbred]

Toms most famous saying is

" The Weather Will Do What The Weather Will Do"

I thought it was

"Why, why, why Delilah....."

[Dorsetbred]

should ban myself from this thread!

Cookie, welcome to the replacement for the "Winter Model Outlook discussion" thread"

Edited May 4, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Paul Sherman]

GFS 00z Could have been on the Stella's last night - Returning 60's Dp's back into Canada by Thursday 10th May after that Scouring CF Goes through on Monday/Tuesday.

Good To See But ya aint fooling anyone GooFuS

[Cloud]

I have formed the opinion over the years the best chasing in May is after the 20th through to the end of the month.

But every season is a bit different.

[D-J-V]

If there is a storm on the contiguous US we WILLget it!

[Tom Lynch]

Toms most famous saying is

" The Weather Will Do What The Weather Will Do"

how very true Paul It is my catch phrase

I thought it was

"Why, why, why Delilah....."

Well it is not unusual !!

[Tom Lynch]

......

Not the best picture I have ever seen..

Edited May 4, 2012 by Tom Lynch

[Stu Robinson]

Light at the end of the tunnel?

Last two GFS runs hints at building a western trough from the 20^th May onwards….

[Cookie]

Light at the end of the tunnel?

Last two GFS runs hints at building a western trough from the 20^th May onwards….

:lol:

[Tim]

For somebody who's there from the 10th to 20th of May this really is making depressing reading

I'm just hoping that the models are wrong as they often can be or a change happens as early as mid month.

Edited May 5, 2012 by Tim

[Cloud]

Looks good in SE South Dokata today.

Edited May 5, 2012 by nzstorm

[Stu Robinson]

This reminds me of 2008, another abating La Niña year. The GFSoutlook looked awful but then of course near to the time things changed and we had the tornado fest over Kansas include the Quinter F4 Wedge tornado (the biggest one I have ever seen)

Keep your chin up - I am leaving on Saturday 12th until May 28th and i hope to see you all out there at some stage.

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

Another set of 00z Model Suites viewed and still the same picture, Although an awful outlook for Tornadoes and the bigger Set-Ups at least we are not going to be "Death Ridged" Like the 2006 Season. There will be chances at some storms and you are safe in the knowledge that even on marginal or See Text Risk days we WILL Chase, Sometimes although not producing anything near to Tornadic Storms some of those SW & West Texas Hailer Supercells are very photogenic.

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

Hmmm Interesting SPC 4-8 Day SWODY

Seems some Northern Plains action from some energy still associated with the Pacific Front which has been up there for an eternity.

Problem is the Risk zone is for Thursday 10th which will be our first Chase Day Proper, so we could have 2 scenarios here

a, The Zone extends further South into Nebraska and the Dakota's and we pick up the guys and burn off 5-6 hours getting to South Central Kansas around Midnight Wednesday Night.

b, There will probably be a risk zone further East across the Upper Mississippi Valley for Friday 11th and we head towards Kansas City.

Scenario A Will be rough on the guys as it will feel like 6am in the Uk by the time we get up there at Midnight, but me and Dave will be fresh for the driving, I am sure the guys can kip in the back on the way up and would not forego chase opportunities ??

At least we are starting to talk about risks already in another wise supposed dead pattern

Will be monitoring the situation and might cancel the first nights stay (Wed 9th May) in the Best Western at Irving.

[Stu Robinson]

I actually think that you will be chasing hailers over the Western Texas Phdl on Thursday and Friday. Surface winds suggest good upslope. If I was going to stick me neck out (this far ahead) then often you get storms forming on the return mosture flow Hobbs to Jal, NM.

[Dorsetbred]

Hmmm Interesting SPC 4-8 Day SWODY

I am sure the guys can kip in the back on the way up and would not forego chase opportunities ??

Top 'em up with Bud Wi seer they'll sleep

[Paul Sherman]

Yes that was going to be Scenario C Stu

The other option would be 2 days of Possible Mothership HP Supercells out West, so a trip up Highway287 or West on 380 to Lubbock

[Tom Lynch]

Yes that was going to be Scenario C Stu

The other option would be 2 days of Possible Mothership HP Supercells out West, so a trip up Highway287 or West on 380 to Lubbock

SOMEBODY MENTION LUBBOCK ?????????????????????????

Guess who was born there!

[Tom Lynch]

Light at the end of the tunnel?

Last two GFS runs hints at building a western trough from the 20^th May onwards….

Yes I see that Stuart

Tom

[Dorsetbred]

SOMEBODY MENTION LUBBOCK ?????????????????????????

Guess who was born there!

As far as I can tell:

Chace Crawford

Natalie Maines

Jill Goodacre

Mac Davis

And

Some guy called Buddy Holly, whoever he is

[Tom Lynch]

As far as I can tell:

Chace Crawford

Natalie Maines

Jill Goodacre

Mac Davis

And

Some guy called Buddy Holly, whoever he is

oh and Dale Fink

[Tom Lynch]

At the moment it looks south west Texas will supply somthing of interest Paul Edited May 5, 2012 by Tom Lynch

[Paul Sherman]

Yh got my eyes on this Tom, might even squeeze a few days of Supercells out of it down there. Not great for Tornadoes but a Supercell is a Supercell at the end of the day and most of the guys on this trip will not have seen anything as Severe.

Still hanging onto some hope the Northern Arm of that Jet alligns better and drops a bit south from the North Pole Canada - Pmsl