Model Watch For Tours 1 & 2

[Paul Sherman]

Again these threads are popular to keep an eye on how the Models are handling things in the run up to each particular Tour.

As Expected From The SPC This Morning, Ridging taking over after todays Slight Risk, with North or North West Winds clearing out the Moisture way down into the Gulf Of Mexico

In Fact The SPC SWODY 4-8 Does not even include the "Potential Too Low" Text across it - Rofl

They probably should just say the next 7-10 days looks................zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Anyhow if the Old Tour 1 would be going ahead we would be a tad concerned to say the least at the moment (29th April - 8th May) Obviously most Models only go out to the 10 day range but I reckon it could be a good 2 weeks before any Juice returns Northwards. Have not had the chance to look at the GFS Long ranger yet (Goes Out To The 5th May atm) But as Nathan says every year this is just a bit of fun at this stage as the Upper Pattern Can and WILL Change.

Will be updating this thread as we get nearer back end of next week and next weekend!

If you have any thoughts please post your own ideas down as well.

Regards

Paul S

[Dorsetbred]

Lest we forget, here's your first model watch last year

I know I know it's not even worth looking at the moment and Nathan will probably come on here and say GFS Is crud at this range and get yerself some Salt etc...........But I have bee keeping an eye on the GFS For the past 2 months to see how it is doing in the 4-10 day range and the answer is pretty spectacular to be honest with about 77% accuracy for nailing events. Recent risks days are today 14/4 at 9 days out, 09/4 nailed at 10 days out etc etc

So this 1st one is just for the official landing day in 15 days time

What I will do is rate the charts 1 to 5 in terms of Smilies or Saddies

Friday 29th April 2011 Gets 4 on the Sad Scale

Given last year's tour one arriving the day AFTER the biggest outbreak, I would have to say I'm glad you nailed tour 1 this year

[Tom Lynch]

This sat different to last Saturday

Tuesday

[Nick F]

The pattern doesn't look particularly conducive for the next 7 days for severe wx over the Plains, with a flat zonal flow over the upper tier of US states over next few days, then 'death ridge' looks to build in from the west next week.

By tonight's t+240 range (12z Sun 29th April), it's not looking much better, with little prospect for moisture return from ECM, though GFS does show potential for NW Mexico and Colorado ahead of that cut-off low over the SW:

GFS:

ECM:

[Dorsetbred]

Paul

Are you going to carry this forward?

What I will do is rate the charts 1 to 5 in terms of Smilies or Saddies

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Mate

Yep but just seen I need to change the Title to "Tour 2" seeing as there is not a "Tour 1" Happening now.

GFS T384 Goes out to May 6th (Sunday) still a full 4 Days before Tour 2 Starts.

Or it might be an idea to take a look at what the now scrapped Old Tour 1 would/could have been like ? And leave as is.

It's up to you, it will be good to see how the Models have been performing this year in the run up to the later tours anyways.

[Radiating Dendrite]

What happened to tour one??

[Paul]

We added a tour 5 on the end so shunted everything forward.

[Paul Sherman]

Models looking a bit better this morning. Still looking ridgy early next week, but certainly no hint at a death ridge at the moment, this weak ridge looks to get shunted east by Midweek and something is waiting in the wings for Thursday or Friday next week (26th-27th).

In previous years I would have worried about the recovery of quality moisture but it seems this year there is so much of it in the ground that any hint of a Shortwave and it looks game on.

Paul S

[Dorsetbred]

Hi Mate

Yep but just seen I need to change the Title to "Tour 2" seeing as there is not a "Tour 1" Happening now.

Or it might be an idea to take a look at what the now scrapped Old Tour 1 would/could have been like ? And leave as is.

It's up to you, it will be good to see how the Models have been performing this year in the run up to the later tours anyways.

Go for it. lets use the time to see how well the models behave this year, in prep for tour 2, which I am sure will be loads of

[Cloud]

yes, looks like a set up could be there later next week over Oklahoma. There looks to be a small but pronounced upper level system with an LLJ developing. Moisture looks very good. Long range but the gfs did a great job on picking up the recent tornado event.

[Tom Lynch]

Yes well

[Nick F]

12z GFS has a shortwave trough moving across the SW then appearing for last weekend of April over the Sern Plains, so could some severe potential next Saturday, though 12z ECM not keen on the idea:

ECM looking alright for Mon 30th April, trough over the Rockies and a strong S'erly LLJ over the Plains:

[bristolstormchaser]

Hey Paul, not long until tour 2 now :-) Thanks for keeping us updated with how things look in advance, I know it will be a great experience whatever the weather will be :-) I'll keep checking back here very frequently! lol.

[Paul Sherman]

Still been Looking at the models these last few days. Pattern still up and down at the moment, not really been much happening since the Big Kansas Outbreak from 9 days ago. But as alluded to later part of last week the end of this coming week still looks favourable.

GFS Still the Fastest but ECMWF Now coming on board as well for Friday 27th April, Saturday a little further east through parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, would expect a possible SWODY4 Or SWODY5 In Tomorrow's Outlook more especially for Kansas and Oklahoma on Friday.

Now this would have been the day before arrival and Saturday would have been Arrival Day so we would not have got up and running in time for these risks so not too sad this end - Lolz

After this it looks zonal for the first week of May with west or North West Flow prevailing, will be keeping an eye on things for "Tour 2" over the next few days but still out of the reliable timeframe at the moment.

Paul S

[D-J-V]

Eye's on the model time!

I hate this bit.......from now on in I will be glued to the model runs! Still early days for T2 though!

[Arron]

Are we having a "Chasers Bio" thread again this year?

[bristolstormchaser]

Eye's on the model time!

I hate this bit.......from now on in I will be glued to the model runs! Still early days for T2 though!

Know what you mean mate, although all new to me. Have seen a 3 month forcast for general weather patterns over the U.S for the next 3 months on weather.com. Think i'll reserve judgement for now! Tim and I will see you on the 9th, can't wait! :-)

[Dorsetbred]

Are we having a "Chasers Bio" thread again this year?

Nah we know who you are

It says and I quote...

"....I think I've rambled on enough now,"

[Arron]

It's very rare for me to ramble on Unless I've had a beer!

[Tom Lynch]

Nah we know who you are

It says and I quote...

"....I think I've rambled on enough now,"

Ah shucks , I wanted to ramble for a while.

Ton

[Paul Sherman]

Models this morning (Long Range) Can be characterised by a few of these

Usual Early May (09-11) Outlook could be in the offing with little or no chances at Tornadoes across the Alley if Models remain the same, thank god we are going later this year, obviously anything over 10 days out can and WILL Change.

But we need this Jet Stream to come back to visit the Southern Plains in the next 2 weeks and give up with it's love in with the North Pole First!

[Nick F]

Might be potential for a few slight risk areas over the central and northern Plains next week, if the moisture can return far enough north and interact with stronger upper flow up across the northern States, but have seen better outlooks for early May. Hopefully the situation will improve in time for the start of Tour 2, with a deep Pacific trough moving in from the west and slowing as it hits the Plains.

[D-J-V]

Still plenty of time! Have had poor model outlooks before both my previous tours and had high risks on both of those, would prefer not to have to drive up to the Canadian boarder though.

Good job tour 1 was canned, how can I see GFS runs for the US on Netweather?!

[Gorky]

Personally I'd prefer the types of patterns with the Jet stream well north before a trip out. Get the quiet period out of the way, and with a northern jet stream, you don't tend to get the gulf scoured of moisture so frequently. Moisture tends to pool across the plains and everything is primed for the first trough to ejected into the plains. Meanwhile, severe is often still possible in the northern plains, and over the Great Lakes/OV with NWerly flow events.

I know I'd be more worried if things were really active right now before flying out as we'd probably be missing the best of the action!

Dave - Here's the netweather GFS US run

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=usacharts;sess=

Cheers