Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 Part 4

[Harry]

So a chance of an MCS tonight Harry?? Are your planning on going down to the Coast??

He's not sharing a bed with me!!!!!!

HAHAHAHA!!! Very good!

Nah mate I'm not heading down to seaside for this (see what I did there) - I have a feeling I might seriously regret it, but I've got mates coming round this evening for dinner so if I did manage to get away, it wouldn't be until 10pm onwards, by which time any action will have started.

I just Lol'd my house down!!

The latest from the MetOffice aviation site.

Outlook valid until 01st 0600z - Thundery Airmass pushing north easy across Southern UK, stregnthening easterly airflow across the UK, low cloud in the north east. Areas E1 (South wales, South west England and South East England ) Isolations of Ocassional on the Continent of ocassional 7km visbility in showers of Rain with Isolations of 3000meters in heavy showers of rain with heavy thunderstorm in rain. Moderate turbulence, with isolations of severe turbulence in the far east from 18z, isolations of hill fog. Areas SCT with BKN AC clouds, 08000ft. SCT broken CU and SC with severe icing at 01500ft-04000ft/07000ft-XXX ISOLATIONS of CB01500ft-03000ft/XXX E1

Bit of a step in the right direction aviation wise eh Robbie

HELP ,CUSTERED DOWNPOURS HEADING FROM FRANCE ,HARRY from kent forecasts heavy falls of custard with the odd rumble of crumble .im not taking the P... as i can remember my mistake a couple of years back , a trap around ofclusion . certainly looking very interesting for later tonight , but still a bit to early to call if a thundery affair or just heavy thundery rain .will be interesting to see whats developed by 8pm this evening over france .id say about 50/50 for some descent storms ,regards legritter

Indeed apologies - I really don't like typos but I'm at work so getting in quick comments while I can

[Stuart]

Good luck down there 2night all

[Robbie Garrett]

HAHAHAHA!!! Very good!

Nah mate I'm not heading down to seaside for this (see what I did there) - I have a feeling I might seriously regret it, but I've got mates coming round this evening for dinner so if I did manage to get away, it wouldn't be until 10pm onwards, by which time any action will have started.

Bit of a step in the right direction aviation wise eh Robbie

Indeed apologies - I really don't like typos but I'm at work so getting in quick comments while I can

Ah right, I have the airplane booked later... going to take a few mates flying. Might get caught out in a few showers, but nothing I can't handle, have been stuck under a CB once.... literally pushed the nose forward, cut the power to idle and was still getting a climb rate of 1500fpm lool

Looking at the London Skyline right now, does look very unstable. Looks like a nice Summers day ready to go bang. Oh well!!

Being fair, I've noticed when conditions are as you would think not perfect is when the biggest things happen. So let's see, from an aviation perspective most of the airports go into night mode, so from that perspective quite bumpy flying conditions tonight. Wouldn't want to be the passenger returning on the european easyJet flights back into Gatwick tonight that's for sure.

Edited April 30, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Arnie Pie]

Fascinating watching tonights potential move evermore to wards us up from Spain

(monthly NW radar,Euro setting........ only £.3.49/a month you know)

will it fizzle out or storm on through

pretty marginal this far North .....but hey theres a chance

Edited April 30, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[Coast]

so from that perspective quite bumpy flying conditions tonight. Wouldn't want to be the passenger returning on the european easyJet flights back into Gatwick tonight that's for sure.

It's mostly upper level stuff and would affect those coming back from France or Spain:

[Robbie Garrett]

It's mostly upper level stuff and would affect those coming back from France or Spain:

I've done that route twice, once in August 1997 and the Thunderstorms that year where immense from what I can remember. The other in July 2004. and the whole route was bumpy as hell!!

[Bluebreezer54]

Well Im in the same boat as the majority here today, looking forward to tonights developments with a mixture of anticipation and doubt. Many thanks to all the knowledgeable posters here who provide the technical stuff ( you know who you are ! ).

Someone provided this great London webcam link the other day, one of the best I have seen, so it might be worth having a look at later, fingers crossed.

http://www.thechelseatile.com/chelsea-river-thames-london-webcam.html

[Lynxus]

Some VERYYYY Heavy showers in south western france.

Wow.

Hopefully heading for the south UK !

[Robbie Garrett]

Looks good for flying, hopefully it stays like that for my late evening flight with a few friends.

[Andy Bown]

Thundery rain was the watch word on the 13.30 BBC forecast, with warnings of perhaps 2 inches of rain locally!

Did anyone else in the Wiltshirew/Somerset area have haol wake them last night? We had some marble sized stones

during a heavy shower at 13.30-13.50.

[Harry]

Looks good for flying, hopefully it stays like that for my late evening flight with a few friends.

Good pics!!

Indeed, the skies do look good!!

Not much signs of anything happening over the continent, except for a strong line of storms down the S/C/W spine of France (in line with Estofex's level 1 for this area).

A lot of cloud across E/NE France towards the Benelux region - what effect this will have is anyone's guess!. Much of this cloud appears to stem from the Swiss Alps - this should layer the atmosphere across Eastern France/Benelux with a nice cap of dry air, increasing instability! What if anything of this we see remains the $64,000 question!

[Coast]

So are we going to see an MCS import late evening then? There is certainly going to be a lot of rain!

or GFS:

[Coast]

Interesting provisional update from SkyWarn:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #016

ISSUED: 1200UTC MONDAY 30TH APRIL 2012 (SM/GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SOUTHEAST ENGLAND SOUTHERN ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ENGLAND WALES MIDLANDS EAST ANGLIA

IN EFFECT FROM 1700UTC MONDAY 30TH UNTIL 1100UTC TUESDAY 1ST MAY 2012

LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE SW DRAWING AN UNSTABLE MOISTURE PLUME FROM CENTRAL EUROPE, ENGAGED BY SHORTWAVING AND STRONG SHEAR FROM NORTHERN FRANCE.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING...STRONG GUSTS...HAIL...LIGHTNING...FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONFIDENCE OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHWEST, ADVECTING AN ELEVATED AND UNSTABLE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE BENELUX REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UK OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION INITIATED ON THE CONTINENT IS LIKELY TO BECOME CLUSTERED, POSSIBLY FORMING AN MCS, AND WILL TRANSIT THE CHANNEL INTO AREAS ANYWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS INTO LATE EVENING. INITIAL STORMS WILL HAVE ENHANCED RAIN RATES, WITH GENERAL RAIN RATES ALSO INCREASING DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, ACCUMULATIONS OF 30MM ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING GIVEN SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS. RIVER CATCHMENTS ARE ALSO PRONE TO SWELLING SHARPLY DURING THE WATCH PERIOD. STORM BASES WILL MOSTLY BE ELEVATED AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE, BUT A STRONG FLOW BELOW THE 900MB LEVEL WILL LEAD TO LLS CAPABLE OF ORGANISING CONVECTION AND LEADING TO CONVECTIVE GUSTS UP TO 50MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WALES, WITH CHANCES FOR POSSIBLE FUNNELS AND WEAK TORNADOES INCREASED BY ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND STORM OUTFLOW EFFECTS. STRONG DLS WILL SEE THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MAINTAINED AS THEY CROSS THE CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN UK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING WHERE CLOUD TOPS ACHEIVE FULL HEIGHT. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO WHERE NECESSARY. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

[Lynxus]

So are we going to see an MCS import late evening then? There is certainly going to be a lot of rain!

or GFS:

Only if!

Some cells firing up in north france now. Really getting going very quickly!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Interesting provisional update from SkyWarn:

I AM EXCITED!!!!!!!!!!!

[Harry]

Hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe

Ramp time!!!!!!

Latest BBC regional forecast from Michael Fish, with a return to talk of possible thunder and a few lightning symbols too

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/me1

Edited April 30, 2012 by Harry

[Chris.R]

I hate the public and media's atitude towards the weather. Isn't it called imeeist or something, (what does that mean BTW)? It just frustrates me when they slag off the forecasters when there is usually a good reason why a forecast hasn't panned out. Many people don't even know when we have showers and they still just call it rain. GRRR.

Sorry

[Arnie Pie]

Some local convection here with temperatures holding out at 17c

is it me, or is there not much lightning being detected this afternoon?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Some local convection here with temperatures holding out at 17c

is it me, or is there not much lightning being detected this afternoon?

I would have been surprised if any was detected to be honest.

I think we will have to wait till this evening at the earliest for that.

[Coast]

is it me, or is there not much lightning being detected this afternoon?

It depends where you are looking and where you are expecting it to come from:

[Arnie Pie]

I would have been surprised if any was detected to be honest.

I think we will have to wait till this evening at the earliest for that.

Not even on the continent

just in case i want to make sure all my equipment is working( especially radar!)......Ecxiting vibe in the forum

Edit; Cheers Coast, not showing on NW radar or is it meant to show?

Edited April 30, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[Coast]

Edit; Cheers Coast, not showing on NW radar or is it meant to show?

Too far down France for UK coverage I think, if you follow the radar, it is on its way roughly North.

[Andy Bown]

There is a long line of storms roughly in Central France now, they're stretching S-N though so if that was to continue as the system heads

towards the UK it would be a narrow area affected thunder wise - of course things will change by then and more likely will be the thundery

activity to lessen leaving a lot of rain instead!

[Harry]

There is a long line of storms roughly in Central France now, they're stretching S-N though so if that was to continue as the system heads

towards the UK it would be a narrow area affected thunder wise - of course things will change by then and more likely will be the thundery

activity to lessen leaving a lot of rain instead!

This is not the area of primary interest IMO.

An area of thunderstorms should erupt in the next couple of hours across NE France and Benelux region! It is this area which IMO stands to bring the highest chance of electrical activity, as and when it goes pop!

[Arnie Pie]

Too far down France for UK coverage I think, if you follow the radar, it is on its way roughly North.

Well to be honest I expected more for my £3.49