Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 Part 4

[Coast]

No forecasts applicable to us from any of the dedicated sites today, a couple of places have coverage for convective chances though:

But again, its over the Channel!!!!

Still a bit of helicity going on over us midday:

The Benelux countries looking to get anything in the way of spouts, funnels or tornado's:

But at least we get some much needed rain...........

[Coast]

Next 7 days or the outlook is not wonderful for storms, better the further south you are but nothing to get over excited about currently:

[Lauren]

In all honesty im happy for the posts to be deleted / moved.

However, I normally dont stray from topic and due to the tumble weed in here at the moment im fairly certain its not a major issue that warrants an investigation, separate paperwork, interviews and a writeup.

And while they were "off topic" they did spawn from a pretty "on topic" post

/ This post isnt designed to rant or rave. Just an observation of what seems to be a small mountain from an even smaller mole hill

Well, quite, I don't think a few OT posts require moving, that kind of thing naturally happens. if it had been loads then fair enough. OT now myself!

Nothing convective here at the moment, just raining constantly since yesterday morning and the wind is picking up. At the moment it's not living up to the MetO amber warning.

[AWD]

Just noticed the following warning for Southern Parts on Tuesday from the Met Office!

Issued at - 29 Apr 2012, 11:48

Valid from - 01 May 2012, 00:00

Valid to - 01 May 2012, 23:59

Outbreaks of rain, heavy and possibly thundery, are likely to affect southern England and the southern half of Wales, on Tuesday. The public should be aware that, following recent heavy rainfall, further localised flooding is possible, as well as difficult driving conditions. In addition strong easterly winds are likely across the Midlands and parts of Wales.

The public is advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here:

Anyone got any thoughts on this?

Wasnt expecting anything thundery this week.

( Red highlighting added by me )

Edited April 29, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[legritter]

just had a look at a local brooke /streem if it keeps on tonight with a wrap around of sorts a few propertys could be flooded . not much fun ,wheni was about 17 and can remember the great bristol somerset flood back in 68 .people being swepy away .any how a dry slot coming in for a couple of hours then some intense downpours . could be very interesting tues /wed especially now the sun is getting much stronger .any how im of to kitchen to cook a nice bit of pork with roasters IM ON A DIET .

[Lynxus]

Wow, the showers are really getting going now.

Some VERY heavy pulses moving NW

[MP-R]

Some bright echoes across southern central areas heading for the West Country and Midlands. I would have thought at least a rumble or two will be heard by some before the day is out.

[Harry]

Just noticed the following warning for Southern Parts on Tuesday from the Met Office!

Issued at - 29 Apr 2012, 11:48

Valid from - 01 May 2012, 00:00

Valid to - 01 May 2012, 23:59

Outbreaks of rain, heavy and possibly thundery, are likely to affect southern England and the southern half of Wales, on Tuesday. The public should be aware that, following recent heavy rainfall, further localised flooding is possible, as well as difficult driving conditions. In addition strong easterly winds are likely across the Midlands and parts of Wales.

The public is advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here:

Anyone got any thoughts on this?

Wasnt expecting anything thundery this week.

( Red highlighting added by me )

Tbh, I'm a little unsure!

There is definitely scope for thunderstorms to erupt over the continent throughout the day tomorrow (as there has been today) and the trend is for these to drift N or NW'wards towards our shores throughout the evening. There is definitely an abundance of moisture, a fair degree of instability (over the continent) and strong surface heating.

However, all this will tie in with a developing area of Low pressure over the continent, which will develop fronts throughout the afternoon - how the development of fronts will interact with convection tends to throw me somewhat.

My feeling is that there will be a fair chance of thunder later tomorrow evening, however I'm inclined to think this will be limited to those near the S/SE coasts. As the system moves in land, it become increasingly frontal in nature, with perhaps locally embedded thunderstorms but by no means widespread.

As Weather09 says, it is a very messy and complex set up, one which we do not see that often! I am inclined to suggest that CAPE/LI levels will show an increase over the next 12-24 hours, with the storm risk increasing also. Again, how this translates to developing weather fronts is anyone's guess. Definitely one for the likes of Nick F and Brickfielder (not to take anything away from other knowledgeable chaps btw!)

As an aside, this is the forecast for the SE tomorrow from the MetO

Monday:

Dry and bright with some sunny spells and feeling warmer than of late. Scattered showers developing through the afternoon, perhaps heavy with a risk of thunder by evening. Maximum Temperature 18 °C.

Edited April 29, 2012 by Harry

[Eskimo]

This is the most interesting spell of weather I've known for April, constantly something vaguely exciting.

[Lynxus]

Guys..

Can anyone recall from charts and actual weather events what happened last time the pattern was like this?

Ive never really seen the jet so far south and pulling systems up from the Med before.. Well especially not this time of year.

What is going on!

We ought to be below the jet... Yet we are as far north as the north pole usually is to it lol

[Eskimo]

Electrical activity I feel will only be limited to coastal areas until the showers die away into heavy rain, I want to be proven wrong because I live in Hertfordshire.

[legritter]

having problem with my virtual memory etc so iv just lost most of my collected data . but looking at current charts etc it does look like mon and tues could be the bees knees /as regards downpours and thunderstorm activity .and that front setting up could bring localised high totals .at the moment anywhere in england or wales could cop it ,lets hope for some spectacular lightning and the rain falling in areas that can soak it up ,as iv witnessed 125mm rain in 18hrs and its not much fun ,back in 1968 . looking like some lively storms breaking out in the channel ,dry here now but some threatening looking cloud to my south east .

[Harry]

This is very interesting - run the rainfall forecast and look at what happens

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=map

Has an air of 6th Aug 2008 about it

[Lynxus]

This is very interesting - run the rainfall forecast and look at what happens

http://www.metoffice...recast/?tab=map

Has an air of 6th Aug 2008 about it

hahah. some very heavy stuff.

[Harry]

hahah. some very heavy stuff.

Indeed - I think locally flooding could be a serious problem under the heaviest falls, particularly if there are potent thundery cells.

Today, there were areas of localised flooding which I haven't seen for years! The dry, warm evening and day tomorrow will help abate matters to a small extent - depends on how tomorrow evening/night plays out.

[Costa Del Fal]

The MetO rainfall maps tomorrow are interesting. At 4pm there is pretty much nothing over England then by 7pm there seems to be a rash of cells over the Midlands and South. Then more organised rainfall looks to spread up overnight???

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The MetO rainfall maps tomorrow are interesting. At 4pm there is pretty much nothing over England then by 7pm there seems to be a rash of cells over the Midlands and South. Then more organised rainfall looks to spread up overnight???

Yeah bbc mentioned thundery showers although mainly isolated breaking out tomorrow evening, mainly in S and SE midlands

[Costa Del Fal]

I certainly wouldnt like to be forecasting tomorrow evening and overnight. Not only does main rainfall extent look uncertain bu there is even more uncertainty about whether any showers etc will be Thundery. GFS brings back Thundery potential but some other models dont look to be having any of it either. Met Office for the West Midlands mentions Thundery rain for Tuesday.

It really is going to be a radar watch even tbh.

[Convective]

To be honest, I aint too bothered about what the charts say after yesterdays amazing thunderstorm. Temperature 5.8°c and pressure 1021mb.. Nothing forecast but look what happened!

[Eskimo]

Anyone got that radar website that shows clouds with a timeline which you can drag at the top, i can't describe it anymore because I can't remember what it looks like.

[Lynxus]

Anyone got that radar website that shows clouds with a timeline which you can drag at the top, i can't describe it anymore because I can't remember what it looks like.

meteox.co.uk ?

sat24.com

[Eskimo]

meteox.co.uk ?

sat24.com

No it's another one, it kind of merges all the images together to make the loop smoother.

[Harry]

No it's another one, it kind of merges all the images together to make the loop smoother.

www.yr.no ??

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Edited April 29, 2012 by Harry

[Eskimo]

www.yr.no ??

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

LEGEND, THANKS!

[Harry]

I'm really looking forward to tomorrow!

Even though there really isn't bucket loads of potential, it's a relatively rare setup with a fair bit of moist, unstable air in the mix, along with developing areas of low pressure.

This is the interesting area at the moment IMO (orange zone) where some lively storms fired off across France today. As our deep area of LP swings away the SW over the next 12-24 hours, a fresh LP area develops over Iberia (as can be seen) and swings NE'wards. How this interacts with the warm and fairly unstable airmass, will make tomorrow's radar watching very interesting!

Estofex still quiet, while UKASF put forward their thoughts on tomorrow's forecast, emphasising the complex nature of the situation.

http://www.ukasf.co....m-forecasts/163