Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3

[Tom D]

1230: http://i.imgur.com/XdQ0d.jpg

1330: http://i.imgur.com/rGcwL.jpg

Just shows where clouds have 'popped up' - notably in Kent, London. Moving northeast. Worth keeping an eye on these. Not sure if there's any potential of the cloud west of London up to the Midlands, but possibilities for the northern English clouds.

[Lewis]

Anyone kind enough to post a high res NMM chart of todays CAPE AND LI for the times:

5PM & 7PM

Will be sorting my subscription out tomorrow when i get paid.

Thanks

[DAVID SNOW]

1230: http://i.imgur.com/XdQ0d.jpg

1330: http://i.imgur.com/rGcwL.jpg

Just shows where clouds have 'popped up' - notably in Kent, London. Moving northeast. Worth keeping an eye on these. Not sure if there's any potential of the cloud west of London up to the Midlands, but possibilities for the northern English clouds.

Convergence zone slap bang over London it would seem?

[VillagePlank]

BBC News24 seemed to be circumspect about t/storm risk ... although it was said that there was a 'heavy thunderstorm' risk ....

Convergence zone slap bang over London it would seem?

Possibly, the weak cold front?

[SnowJoke]

Hazy skies here now, but some large TCu's popping up in places.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Been watching this Bank of hard looking towering Cumulus clouds developing not far to the West/South West of me for an hour or so. Pileus now evident as well.

Hope you get out of the NSC mate, we've been in it too long

[Robbie Garrett]

Looks beautiful out my window but very unstable look to it, a few more Cu.

[VillagePlank]

Here's the 12z Herstmonceaux sounding, against the London H/throw forecast skew-T: sorry I can't get station for station comparisons, so, obviously allowances need to be made

Essentially, it shows a slightly more bouyant atmosphere than forecast, but with less CAPE, and ever so slightly less chance of producing severe thunderstorms.

Onto GFS 12z, then, and radar watching. MetO warning comes into force in 45 minutes time so, hopefully, there'll be something on the radar to watch

Edited May 28, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Methuselah]

Well, the BBC lunchtime forecast appeared to emphasise how isolated any storms would be... It's confusing.

[Coast]

Towers building nicely to my North and East at home!

[dallas]

At work, and towers going up all around, very warm

[Neilsouth]

Hard to make out some of these clouds, look less impressive than they did earlier... sunglasses day for sure lol

[Lewis]

Wind Convergence just North of the Wash into Lincolnshire and Yorkshire.

Temps around 25 too 26 with a dew of 12/13c

Would expect some cells to start popping up around these areas soon, around 4pm.

[Backtrack]

Lots of cumulus popping up here now, but the sun continues to shine.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Lots of cumulus popping up here now, but the sun continues to shine.

Sun pretty much absent here now due to haze and cloud build up. Still bright though.

Edited May 28, 2012 by CreweCold

[BB1979]

In Central London. Went out at 12pm and it was blue sky as far as eye could see. By 2pm clouds begining to bubble towards the North of town

[Tom Montalbano]

Coast,

Concur with your sightings, towers developing south and east of here and a more defined head developing SE of here, over Kent.

I take it you've all noticed the potent cell that's developed over the NE of France, showing on the 2 p.m radar image.

Regards,

Tom.

Edited May 28, 2012 by TomSE20

[Wivenswold]

I can see a huge tower to my SW. At a guess I'd say it was over towards Upminster way. Hopefully they will be getting closer.

[MP-R]

Plenty of altocumulus and small cumulus around but pretty hazy. The BBC said we would know where the thunderstorms are from miles away because they'll be the only clouds around but somehow I think it won't be the case in this area.

[Mapantz]

BBC weather tweet again:- Main areas for potential thunderstorm development this pm look to be parts of Essex/Suffolk, West N Ireland, Grampians/S.Highlands.

[SnowJoke]

Gone hazy here now under layer of altocumulus castellanus & cirrostratus at high level, temps dropped from 26.2 to 24.8'c in the last 30mins. Wind keeps changing from a ENE to a SSW and back again. Looking more thundery and feeling hotter as the humidity keeps building.

[Neilsouth]

Nice thunderstorm developing towards Calais, so atleast they have something

[geg1992]

BBC weather tweet again:- Main areas for potential thunderstorm development this pm look to be parts of Essex/Suffolk, West N Ireland, Grampians/S.Highlands.

Wooo, I'm in Suffolk! If I see any storms I shall upload them to my youtube account. "Weathermangeg"

[SnowJoke]

Nice thunderstorm developing towards Calais, so atleast they have something

If those damn frenchies get all the storm action & the UK misses out once more. I think we should get a work party together, hop on a ferry & go whack a few with baguettes!

[Robbie Garrett]

Here's the 12z Herstmonceaux sounding, against the London H/throw forecast skew-T: sorry I can't get station for station comparisons, so, obviously allowances need to be made

Essentially, it shows a slightly more bouyant atmosphere than forecast, but with less CAPE, and ever so slightly less chance of producing severe thunderstorms.

Onto GFS 12z, then, and radar watching. MetO warning comes into force in 45 minutes time so, hopefully, there'll be something on the radar to watch

J**** c**** mate!! less cape, lool!! There's a lot on that sounding

Clouds definately bubbling up at the moment, if the BBC tweet is correct I am going to stress....