Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3

[Eskimo]

I love days like tomorrow. If everything sets up like this then it will be brilliant. I like it when it's nice a hot, clear blue skies and then you get a few afternoon fair-weather puffy clouds which grow and grow into a developing storm. You can smell that acrid/sultry mess in the air and the feeling of the atmosphere self imploding...after that, the storms drift off leaving the last part of the day dry and still warm.

[Methuselah]

I agree i am fed up now of London and the south east having all the storms i don't know what has happened in this neck of the woods but its pretty poor! Hopefully we in the west mids and wrexham get to see a storm come the end of the week there is potential on Wednesday i hear?!

I spent the last two summers in the capital, myself. And in all that time I only witnessed handful of storms...

[Eskimo]

Couple of faxes looking at tomorrow and Wedneday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

Nice looking chart for tomorrow, particularly as mentioned towards the East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Much better for Wednesday for many areas but again highlights the most risk for the East. .

[Cableguy]

I agree i am fed up now of London and the south east having all the storms i don't know what has happened in this neck of the woods but its pretty poor! Hopefully we in the west mids and wrexham get to see a storm come the end of the week there is potential on Wednesday i hear?!

London and the south east having all the storms?? Don't make me laugh, the last few years have been awful down here.

[Aaron]

Storms have been very localised. My friend in Hampstead (or near Hampstead) has only seen a few distant lightning bolts and thunder rumbles, and hasn't had a storm at all yet parts of London have had plenty. London's a big place.

Edited May 27, 2012 by Aaron

[Supacell]

Last year it was the North East that got most of the storms but looks like this year is back to normal. The SE is traditionally supposed to the area in the country that gets most storms. I agree though that so far this year it has been a bit unfairly distributed, but mother nature is not known for her fairness.

As for tomorrow. Could someone with the knowledge advise if we are talking an isolated small risk as has been the case over the last few days or are tomorrow's storms a greater risk. If I chase I would be heading for somewhere between probably Leicester and Milton Keynes but its a long way for me to go just for a "bust".

[Chris K]

After seeing clouds bubble up fairly quickly early afternoon around Bristol, I did think something was going to happen, but in the end, the skies started to clear again as the afternoon drew to a close. Lovely, warm and clear blue skies out there this evening. Really has been a brilliant weekend and glad I could finally make the most of it rather than sitting in work through the heat.

Tomorrow..as others have said look better for regions in the East/SE.

Wednesday looks better for more widespread thundery showers further west as well, but it looks like it will be a radar and sky watching day to see where things starting kicking off. Looking at the forecast wind directions on the GFS, I have a feeling if storms do develop, it may be a case of western/SW regions giving birth to the storms for those further east/NE really. I could be wrong though?

http://cdn.nwstatic....2/75/ukwind.png

Anyway I really hope I do see something before the heat dissipates back to temperatures that are something more average, but still decent!

Edited May 27, 2012 by Chris K

[Mesoscale]

After seeing clouds bubble up fairly quickly early afternoon around Bristol, I did think something was going to happen, but in the end, the skies started to clear again as the afternoon drew to a close. Lovely, warm and clear blue skies out there this evening. Really has been a brilliant weekend and glad I could finally make the most of it rather than sitting in work through the heat.

Tomorrow..as others have said look better for regions in the East/SE.

Wednesday looks better for more widespread thundery showers further west as well, but it looks like it will be a radar and sky watching day to see where things starting kicking off. Looking at the forecast wind directions on the GFS, I have a feeling if storms do develop, it may be a case of western/SW regions giving birth to the storms for those further east/NE really. I could be wrong though?

http://cdn.nwstatic....2/75/ukwind.png

Anyway I really hope I do see something before the heat dissipates back to temperatures that are something more average.

Average temperatures are around 20C around this time of year anyway. So far this week I have only seen really high haze and nothing else.

[DAVID SNOW]

Storms have been very localised. My friend in Hampstead (or near Hampstead) has only seen a few distant lightning bolts and thunder rumbles, and hasn't had a storm at all yet parts of London have had plenty. London's a big place.

Many a report of bolts,bangs and rumbles over on the Heath(Hamstead),not always weather related though.

[viking_smb]

something is brewing below the isle of wight.

[Lynxus]

Heavy shower just popped up SE / E of aberystwyth

Oddly, I can see some fairly large towers to me west

The rate at that shower is growing in West wales. It gotta have a sferic sooner or later

Edited May 27, 2012 by Lynxus

[viking_smb]

on meto radar . can anyone confirm rain/storms below isle of wight pls. or is it a anoprop

Edited May 27, 2012 by viking_smb

[coffee lover]

it feels very stormy down here, not rain as yet....

[Eskimo]

on meto radar . can anyone confirm rain/storms below isle of wight pls. or is it a anoprop

Most likely the latter.

[Lynxus]

on meto radar . can anyone confirm rain/storms below isle of wight pls. or is it a anoprop

been like it for a while.

deffo anaprop

[viking_smb]

just thinking as they look heavy.

[Lynxus]

This to me seems like an oddly shaped echo..

Thoughts...

Edited May 27, 2012 by Lynxus

[Eskimo]

This to me seems like an oddly shaped echo..

Thoughts...

Looks normal to me

[viking_smb]

Confirmed on METO radar. not sure, probably just heavy shower caused by topagraphy

[Dean E]

Thats probably a anaprop off the Isle of Wight, cause all I can see from here is just some high level cloud. Cooled down quite a fair bit in the last hour, now 15.2c

Edited May 27, 2012 by SnowMania

[Lynxus]

Looks normal to me

Yeah.

Goddamnit we need a decent doppler system here to get rain direction

[Dan the Man]

So, how severe would you expect these thunderstorms to be (apologies I'm a bit of an amateur with this sort of thing!)

Looking at the synoptic charts, am I right in thinking that occlusion in the middle of the week, meeting the hot air from the east, looks perfect for severe thunderstorm potential? On the same sort of scale as last June during Wimbledon?

[Eskimo]

Yeah.

Goddamnit we need a decent doppler system here to get rain direction

Why don't we have that radar system in this country? Is it too expensive?

[lottiekent]

I agree i am fed up now of London and the south east having all the storms i don't know what has happened in this neck of the woods but its pretty poor! Hopefully we in the west mids and wrexham get to see a storm come the end of the week there is potential on Wednesday i hear?!

South East? Ha! I should be so lucky...no decent storm here for four years now! Gone are the days where we'd have a sultry, hot afternoon followed by distant rumblings heralding the arrival of a vicious French import

[Lynxus]

Why don't we have that radar system in this country? Is it too expensive?

Im not sure TBH.

I think it is quite expensive but im fairly sure that isnt the issue..

From what Ive heard, i think its due to the ranging on it and it would require a lot of base stations in the UK to work well ( We have a very hilly country )

Maybe there are a couple.. Ive never seen any "free" data at least.. Then again ive never seen any doppler images in the news either.