Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3

[viking_smb]

towers going up in cardiff

[Lynxus]

loads going up here too.

Been watching the sat images for hours now, can clearly see something sbuilding..

Not expecting much till 6pm.

[Hathers]

Some lovely fair weather clouds starting to bubble up here in Costa del Telford lol

[Costa Del Fal]

Some small clouds here but nothing more building than that. I suspect it wont be anymore than that either.

[Shane Wheeldon]

Some lovely fair weather clouds starting to bubble up here in Costa del Telford lol

Yeah a few clouds have bubbled up in the last hour in a way I'm relieved as I'm like a lobster now haha!

[Kookylou]

Impressive looking towers to the NW of cardiff

[DeepSnow]

High cloud around here now but not much else.. hope for something later!

[Kain]

Clouds bubbling up now in Bridgnorth (Not far from Costa del Roundabout...I mean Telford!) some nice little plump Cu's

[Sprites]

Clouds bubbling up now in Bridgnorth (Not far from Costa del Roundabout...I mean Telford!) some nice little plump Cu's

it's the clag from those smelly heritage diesel galas

[Kain]

it's the clag from those smelly heritage diesel galas

Could very well be! Though I don't think there has been a diesel gala for ages! Or at least I aint heard the horns.

[TonyH]

Showers popped off on a convergence line headed this way from the ESE.

[IanR]

BBC graphics now have showers across Wales and parts of the West Country this afternoon. Bigger risk appears to be tomorrow evening in eastern parts - with London to East Midlands the favoured spot.

BBC forecaster just said "most people will see some flashes and bangs this week" - surely that doesn't include Bradford???

It certainly wont include here thats for sure

[TonyH]

Showers and overcast now, really refreshing after the heat, not so heavy as yet.

EDIT: Heavy now

[Backtrack]

Just posted this in the warm spell discussion, but it applies here too:

It's evident now that the cap is been quickly eroded away as moisture is being pumped into the atmosphere, promoting cloud formation.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Won't be long now until places start to see some intense thunderstorms IMO

[GreyCrag]

The Brecon Beacons and now Dartmoor being the main contributing lifting factors of today, meanwhile as the remnants of the CF continue to push further northeast into tomorrow we will see the Cotswolds, Chilterns, South Downs and as far north as the southern Pennines acting as the same lifting catalysts. A exciting 3 days to come for anyone in South Wales, South-Central England and a lesser extent us in the Pennines perhaps getting a storm or two.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS and NAE still have the "bullseye" over London and the Home counties concerning their precip progs for tomorrow late afternoon period. Still considerable divergence on expected dewpoints- the GFS looking a tad too high to me, so boundary layer CAPE perhaps not as high as progged. Regardless, I'd still expect thunderstorms that do develop to be pretty potent, with relatively large hail and torrential RF rates and flash flooding the main risks.

Whats your thoughts for the West Midlands region? Not really keen on seeing London hog it all again when Ive not seen nothing yet!

[Michelle Baker]

Hope we get something in Bristol for a change!

[lfcdude]

The Brecon Beacons and now Dartmoor being the main contributing lifting factors of today, meanwhile as the remnants of the CF continue to push further northeast into tomorrow we will see the Cotswolds, Chilterns, South Downs and as far north as the southern Pennines acting as the same lifting catalysts. A exciting 3 days to come for anyone in South Wales, South-Central England and a lesser extent us in the Pennines perhaps getting a storm or two.

so Wiltshire.... could be a good place?

[Costa Del Fal]

Still a small risk of something firing in the West Midlands for the same period, but maximum instability and forcing mechanisms come together further east, with recent outputs pointing towards the London area and surrounding counties best placed for possibly strong thunderstorm development, if CAPE is realised.

I'd hang on until Wednesday, for now. Anything before then should be considered a bonus.

Typical it comes at the right time for the East. The front comes through here at probably one I the least active times early in the morning. Shame.

[GreyCrag]

so Wiltshire.... could be a good place?

Upwind Wiltshire between Bristol and Gloucester along that part of the Severn has the best bets between now and tomorrow morning. Once the CF transitions into a trough convection will become more organised but reliance upon lifting along the convergence, which moves inland to situ between Manchester and Reading. Moving eastwards into Weds where London to Lincoln has the better chances.

[Cirrusly Snowy]

I'm expecting something like this to develop out of nowhere over the London region...here's hoping!

[dallas]

Mental that

[Carl46Wrexham]

Whats your thoughts for the West Midlands region? Not really keen on seeing London hog it all again when Ive not seen nothing yet!

Too damn right. Miss out this time, and its time to call it quits(for yours truly anyways). Four years and umpteen letdowns, the time has come Mother Nature....deliver the goods or go and do one.

[Aaron]

I'm expecting something like this to develop out of nowhere over the London region...here's hoping!

If only Darwin wasn't horribly hot all year.. I'd love to live there

[Shane Wheeldon]

Too damn right. Miss out this time, and its time to call it quits(for yours truly anyways). Four years and umpteen letdowns, the time has come Mother Nature....deliver the goods or go and do one.

I agree i am fed up now of London and the south east having all the storms i don't know what has happened in this neck of the woods but its pretty poor! Hopefully we in the west mids and wrexham get to see a storm come the end of the week there is potential on Wednesday i hear?!